The NFL playoffs resumes on Saturday for the Divisional Round. First up is the AFC Divisional playoff game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2019.
The Indianapolis Colts have been an unlikely playoff team. They weren’t on anyone’s radar after opening their 2018 campaign with a 1-5 record. But then they racked up nine wins in their last 10 games to reach the wild card game. In that game, the Colts upset the Houston Texans 21-7 behind quarterback Andrew Luck who threw for 222 yards with two touchdowns and one interception and Marlon Mack who ran for 128 yards including one touchdown.
During the regular season, Luck threw for a total of 4,593 passing yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while completing 67.3% of his passes. Luck has thrown at least three touchdowns in nine out of his last 13 games started. Mack led the ground game with a total of rushing yards with 10 rushing touchdowns scored. T.Y. Hilton has caught a total of 1,270 yards with six touchdowns while Eric Ebron has 750 receiving yards with 13 scores.
The Kansas City Chiefs finished what was supposed to be a storybook season with a mediocre 3-2 record after the team released running back Kareem Hunt due to legal issues. Despite sputtering to the finish line, the Chiefs had one of the best offenses in the league as they led the NFL in scoring at 39.5 points per game and total yards at 425 yards per game. The catalyst was none other than quarterback Patrick Mahomes who had a spectacular second season for Kansas City.
Mahomes threw for a remarkable 5,097 passing yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Mahomes also ran for 272 yards with two rushing touchdowns on the season. Damian Williams has rushed for 256 yards with four touchdowns while Spencer Ware has ran for 246 yards with two touchdowns. Tyreek Hill has caught a total of 1,479 yards with 12 touchdowns while Travis Kelce has 103 receptions, 1,336 receiving yards and 10 touchdown passes caught.
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in their last five games played and 4-1 SU in their last five road games played. Kansas City is 3-3 SU in their last six games played and the Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight home games. Head to head, the Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes is having a sensational season and the Kansas City offense is very scary when they get going. With the Chiefs getting the bye and an extra week to prepare, you bet Andy Reid has prepared a game plan that’s going to make the most out of that offense. However, the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been as consistent as of late as it was during the early parts of the season. In fact, the Chiefs lost their last two games against teams with winning records.
The Colts on the other hand have been playing very well as of late but have done so under the radar. Indianapolis looked very sharp against the Houston Texans last week and their defense has stepped up, allowing 17 or fewer points per game in five out of their last eight games played.
As for their offense, Luck has the ability to do damage against Kansas City whose passing defense is so atrocious that only the Cincinnati Bengals gave up more passing yards than them. Mahomes is going to get his numbers in this game but I think the Colts’ defense will hold its own against the Chiefs’ offense, well enough to limit it and cover the spread and win this game outright. We’re picking the Indianapolis Colts to beat the Kansas City Chiefs on 1/12/19.
Indianapolis is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against the AFC, 4-1 ATS in their last four road games and also 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. On the other hand, the Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against the AFC, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 playoff games played. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Chiefs in Kansas City and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 head to head meetings.
The Colts have won five games in a row and are winning by an average margin of 11.4 points per game during that period. Indianapolis has also covered seven out of their last 11 games as underdogs by at least three points. On the other hand, the Chiefs have failed to cover five out of their last seven games as a favorite of three points or more. I’ll take my chance on the underdogs and take my points. Prediction: Colts +5
The total has gone over in the last five games of Kansas City after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The over has also hit in three out of the last four games of the Chiefs after allowing more than 15 points in their previous game. The over is also 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last six games played overall. However, the under has hit in six out of the last eight games played by Indianapolis.
This is a matchup of very prolific offensive teams with below average defenses. Both teams have solid running games and both have quarterbacks who can throw the ball and score big. I’m looking forward to a high scoring game here, a shootout if you want to call it that. Prediction: Over 57
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