Champions TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo collide in the main event of UFC Fight Night 143 on Saturday, January 19th at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Interestingly, the two will fight for Cejudo’s 125 pound belt and if you’re wondering why Dillashaw bothered to move down in weight, it’s about his opportunity to become a three-weight division champion later on.
TJ Dillashaw is the reigning UFC bantamweight champion and is on his second reign as the 135 pound king. He won the belt by knocking out the erstwhile unbeaten Cody Garbrandt and stopping Garbrandt again during their rematch. Dillashaw wants to be a three-division champion but before he goes up to 145, he wants to win the 125 pound belt first.
Dillashaw averages 5.38 significant strikes landed per minute on a 41% accuracy. He is also active on the ground with an average of 1.69 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Dillashaw also absorbs 2.94 significant strikes per minute.
Henry Cejudo is messenger no more. He defeated Demetrious Johnson , one of the longest reigning champions ever in the UFC. Cejudo, a former Olympic Gold medalist in wrestling, applied heavy pressure early on and this probably helped in DJ’s failure to get things going .
Cejudo averages 3.42 strikes landed per per minutes ona 42% accuracy rate while absorbing 2.6 significant strikes per minute. The Messenger averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes on a 33$ accuracy rate.
Beating Demetrious Johnson wasn’t easy. It was no walk in the park. Mighty Mouse was dominating one challenge after another, including Cejudo the first time they fought. But what did Henry Cejudo do? He worked harder to get another shot at D.J. and the second time around, Cejudo shocked the world by beating Demetrious Johnson. That alone shows Cejudo’s fortitude and how tough he is mentally.
It took an all-around effort for Cejudo to beat Mighty Mouse but what stood out for me during that fight was Cejudo’s ability to counter Johnson in the striking exchanges. We all know how dominant Johnson had been prior to that, but every time he tried to come to Cejudo, the latter caught him with something. That disrupted Mighty Mouse’s rhythm.
Cejudo also pursued Johnson from end to end and he needs to do the same to Dillashaw but without getting caught by something big from the bigger man. I won’t be surprised in Cejudo is going to stand in the pocket and trade with Dillashaw. That’s because T.J. is such an unorthodox striker that he leaves some openings for his opponents to pounce on. Cejudo does have power and if he catches Dillashaw clean, I think he can hurt the bantamweight king.
As for Dillashaw, he’s got to be wary in the clinces because he’s up against an Olympic wrestling champion. Cejudo’s not an easy guy to grapple with. Dillashaw himself is slick on the ground and has a million submission moves but he’s not going risk getting taken down from the clinch. The clinch and the takedowns also played an important role in Cejudo’s win over D.J. They are also going to be crucial in beating Dillashaw.
I think the key to this fight are Dillashaw’s leg kicks. Not only does it help him set up his striking game, it’s also a deadly weapon by itself. Remember that it was a leg kick which hurt Cody Garbrandt in their first bout. If T.J. kicks consistently, that could be the difference maker as it sets distance from Cejudo.
I’m not expecting this fight to go the distance. Although this is fought at 125, both have knockout power and good submission skills. Cejudo is going to try and bring the pressure early but Dillashaw is going to weather the storm. Once he figures the distance, Dillashaw is going to utilize his three inch height and three inch reach advantage. I would like Cejudo to win but the “bigger man” takes this via stoppage. Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw by knockout before the championship rounds.
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