I read the other day that February is the worst month of the year for sports bettors, but I disagree.
Even with the NFL in off-season, MLB a couple of months away and the NBA and NHL in the throes of their dog days before the playoffs begin, college basketball is serving up several fantastic matchups each night throughout the shortest month. With teams desperate to make their mark before March Madness selection begins, the drama’s only going to intensify over the next couple of weeks.
One of those fantastic matchups comes tonight as the #10 Marquette Golden Eagles visit the Villanova Wildcats in a critical Big East clash. Villanova’s a 5-point favorite with the Over/Under set at 142.5 (odds taken from GT Bets as of 10 a.m. on Wednesday, February 27).
Here’s what you need to know to bet on tonight’s affair, along with my betting prediction.
Few teams have been as good to bettors this season as the Golden Eagles, whose 18-9 record against the spread rivals their 23-4 overall win-loss mark. Marquette comes into this one riding a 4-game win streak and with victories in 9 of its last 10. They’re also cashing tickets with regularity on the road (6-0 ATS in their last 6 away from home), when coming off a victory (13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a win) and when facing quality opponents (8-2 ATS in their last 10 against teams with winning records.)
The most obvious key to Marquette’s success has been its three-point shooting (the Eagles rank fifth in the nation with a 39.9% success rate from beyond the arc), but don’t sleep on the Eagles’ improvement at the defensive end either. Marquette has held 9 of its last 10 opponents to 73 points or less, and 6 of those 10 foes haven’t cracked the 70-point plateau.
To say it’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Wildcats would be an understatement. After beginning the season with 19 wins in their first 23 games, Jay Wright’s bunch has dropped 4 of its past 5 — and several of those losses weren’t even close. Over the past week, Villanova fell 71-65 to St. John’s on a neutral court, then dropped double-digit decisions at Georgetown (85-73) and Xavier (66-54).
Nova’s most glaring issue lately has been a shooting slump. The Wildcats shot 34% from the field in Sunday’s loss at Xavier, the second time in three games that they missed nearly 70% of their shots. After a 3-game stretch in late January when Nova scored 80-plus points each time, they’ve failed to score more than 73 points in 5 of their last 6.
With Marquette dialed in at the defensive end right now and Villanova desperate for a victory, I’m expecting these two sides to play a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair here.
The trends certainly support that happening. Marquette’s gone Over the total just 3 times in its last 11 games, while Villanova’s gone Under the number in 5 of its last 7. The Wildcats have also played much better defense this year on their home court, where the Under is 9-2-1 on the campaign. Dating back further, the Wildcats are 13-3-1 to the Under in their last 17 at home.
I’m also expecting a Villanova win here, but the 5-point line isn’t something I’m interested in backing. Look for the Wildcats to win a game in the neighborhood of 70-65, and a relatively comfortable cash on the Under 142.5. (The line was moving down on this game Wednesday morning, but I was able to get this number at GT Bets.)
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