There are just four games on the National Hockey League docket tonight, but at least the slate is finishing with a doozy of a matchup. The evening will conclude with a Western Conference showdown in San Jose between the Sharks and Golden Knights as Vegas makes its first visit to The Tank since knocking San Jose out of last year’s playoffs. The Golden Knights are starting to look a lot like last year’s Stanley Cup finalists once again, riding an 8-1 streak into this clash with the Sharks. San Jose had been playing some excellent hockey of its own until this week, with consecutive home losses to the Panthers and Predators coming on the heels of a six-game winning streak.
A lot of elements set up well for a San Jose win here tonight. The Golden Knights are playing for the second straight night and third in four, the Sharks are an excellent home team that should be motivated to snap its two-game losing streak, and I love the revenge angle of backing teams in their first home game against an opponent that eliminated them from the playoffs last spring. (In the most recent example of this situation, the Lightning doubled up the Capitals 6-3 Saturday in Tampa Bay, avenging their loss to Washington in last year’s Eastern final.)
However, I’m not seeing any value here on the Sharks moneyline, with oddsmakers juicing it up to -160 (or higher, depending on where you’re betting the game.) At these current moneyline odds, the best value might be on a Vegas team that is rolling lately, even if the Knights have lost 13 of their last 16 games when in the road underdog role.
If we’re going to back the Sharks here (as I want to do), the best way to create value is by looking at the regulation time price instead. San Jose’s available on the three-way moneyline at +105. With all but three of the Sharks’ home wins coming in regulation time, I’m comfortable backing San Jose to win this game in the first 60 minutes.
With so many games in the NHL going to overtime (including four of seven last night), betting on teams to win in regulation time can be a dangerous proposition. This time, however, I think it’s more than worth the risk, enabling us to take the Sharks at plus money in a good situation. I’m picking the San Jose Sharks on the three-way moneyline at +105 odds.
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