If you’ve followed college basketball at all over the past decade, you already know who’s usually standing at the end. Even though upsets dominate the headlines in the NCAA Tournament, March Madness tends to be won by the big-name elite programs. Only eight different teams have cut down the nets since 2003, including Connecticut, North Carolina, Florida, Duke and Villanova doing it on multiple occasions.
But who are the best teams to actually bet on for March Madness 2019? That’s a totally different question. Sure, Duke and Gonzaga are top seeds expected to go far, but wagering on them usually involves the luxury tax of a high point spread, making them a difficult team to actually make money on against the spread. Plus, the nice thing about betting teams on the point spread is that they might not even need to win the game! Finding an undervalued underdog that simply keeps things close is always a great strategy to make money betting on March Madness.
You’ll find a couple of those types of teams in this list of the Top 5 Teams to Bet On for March Madness, along with a few powerhouses that you’ll probably feel a lot more comfortable backing.
Okay, I get it. After becoming the first-ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 in the NCAA Tournament last year, the Virginia Cavaliers aren’t the easiest team to trust. But maybe that’s why the Cavs have been the second-most profitable team to back in the entire nation this year against the spread (and the best in this year’s March Madness field). Virginia certainly has come back this year motivated to put those memories far behind it, and the point spreads the Cavs have had to cover this year might have been a bit smaller than usual as bettors remembered what happened to UVA last spring.
In addition to boasting the nation’s top scoring defense once again this season, Virginia has made some huge steps at the offensive end of the floor — ranking third in the NCAA in three-point shooting percentage and 30th in field goal percentage overall. An improved ability to put the ball in the basket means that the Cavs are now better equipped to dig themselves out of an early hole (something they couldn’t do last year in the loss to UMBC), while big leads continue to be safe with a defense that allowed just 55.1 points per game in 2018-19. And if you think oddsmakers have caught up to Virginia’s success, think again. The Cavaliers have covered the spread in all but one of their last eight victories, often with plenty of room to spare.
It’s no surprise to see Tom Izzo’s bunch near the top of the March Madness championship odds, considering they’re a threat to win it all every spring. What is a surprise, however, is to see the Spartans thriving as a point spread-covering machine. Usually, bookies jack the point spreads on popular programs like Michigan State to the point that it’s not profitable to bet on them every game. However, Sparty comes into the Tournament having covered the spread in seven of its last 10 overall, including seven of its last nine wins.
Although the Spartans might be the most efficient team in the nation at both ends of the floor, Michigan State’s season stats are hardly overwhelming. They’re 43rd in the NCAA in points per game, 37th in points allowed per game, 22nd shooting the three and 49th defending it. Those middle-of-the-road rankings may have a silver lining for Michigan State backers, though. When you aren’t blowing teams off the court with regularity, oddsmakers aren’t as likely to hang big point spreads for you to cover. In its last 10 games, MSU has been favored by six points or less in six of them, while being asked to cover more than 10.5 points just twice.
Early betting action in North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament opener against Iona has gone against the Tar Heels, moving UNC from a 25-point favorite down to 23 as of Wednesday night. Based on how regularly Roy Williams’ crew has cashed tickets for bettors this season, however, that might be a mistake. North Carolina finished the season on a 7-2 run against the point spread, closing the season with a sparkling record of 21-10-2 ATS.
North Carolina’s not invincible defensively, giving up nearly 73 points per game to rank outside the top 200 in the nation in that category. But they can score (86.1 ppg, third in the country) and they can rebound (43.9, #1 in the NCAA), both keys to winning close games in March. It’s also worth noting that North Carolina hasn’t fattened up its ATS record by beating up on visitors to its home court. UNC is 13-4 on the road this year, which could be key as the rest of their season is contested on a neutral floor.
Sharp bettors have been pounding Vermont for its opening game against Florida State, and with good reason. Not only have the Catamounts gone 27-6 overall this season (including 11-4 on the road), they’ve also been an under-the-radar cash cow. Led by a potential future NBA player in Anthony Lamb and a sharp-shooting senior in Ernie Duncan, the Cats have covered spreads of 10.5, 17.5, 13, 16 and 23.5 points in their last 10 outings.
They won’t be laying that type of chalk in the NCAA Tournament, of course. Vermont is a 9-point dog against the Seminoles in Round 1 (down from an opener of +11) and they’ll be catching points the rest of the season, barring some other huge upsets. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond to the underdog role, considering they’ve been dogged in just three lined games this year (they’re 1-1-1 against the spread in that situation.) They’re also just 3-5 against the spread in their last eight games, suggesting that maybe the money train has already left the station on catching point spread value with the Cats.
When you consistently score 80-plus points, you’re going to cover a lot of numbers, no matter how big the point spreads. That’s been the case this year for the Bruins, whose second-ranked offense (87.2 points per game) has helped them overcome a mediocre defense (73.8 against per game, 243rd in the NCAA). Twice over the last month, the Bruins allowed 75-plus points and STILL covered point spreads of nine or higher, and that’s not even including a 112-67 dismantling of UTM as 11-point road dogs on February 28.
Belmont hasn’t been fazed by tough competition (going 5-3 against teams from the top two quadrants this season) or going out on the road (12-3 straight up, 11-4 against the spread). Now it’s time to see if the Bruins can earn their first victory in eight NCAA Tournament appearances, having gone an unlucky 0-7 so far. But even if they don’t, don’t be surprised if they stay inside the number as 3-point dogs in their opener against Maryland.
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