The Philadelphia Flyers hope the trend of home ice teams dominating their matchups with the Toronto Maple Leafs continue tonight when they welcome the Buds to Wells Fargo Centre. Philly’s playoff hopes are on life support as the Flyers trail Montreal by 10 points for the last wild-card spot in the East with just six games to go — meaning a loss here would eliminate the Orange and Black from postseason contention. Toronto’s a longshot to overtake the Boston Bruins for second in the Atlantic Division (and home ice in the first round of the playoffs), but should be motivated to improve its recent play as the Stanley Cup tournament approaches. Toronto rallied from a 5-2 deficit to edge the Flyers 7-6 in a wild affair two weeks ago in Toronto, marking the ninth time in the last 10 meetings that the host has earned at least a point (7-1-2 during that stretch.)
As much as we remember the 7-6 game these teams played two weeks ago, I’m interested in the Under 7 here. Philadelphia has scored just nine goals in five games since that crazy contest in Toronto, while the Leafs managed just seven goals in their following four games before blowing out the struggling Florida Panthers 7-5 Monday in Toronto. Leafs head coach Mike Babcock has stressed a focus on improving defensive play in preparation for a first-round series with the tough Bruins, while the Flyers know they can’t get into another run-and-gun affair with Toronto.
I’d also like to back the Leafs here, after Philadelphia’s playoff hopes were essentially killed over the weekend with back-to-back losses to the Islanders and Capitals. But even though Toronto has one of the better road record in the NHL lately, I’m not sure there’s much value in laying -150 on the moneyline with a relatively weak defensive squad, especially with how much home ice has mattered in these matchups with Philadelphia. The best value here is probably on the Flyers as home underdogs, but the good news as sports bettors is that we get to pick and choose what we bet on.
After Philadelphia’s roller-coaster season hit another low last weekend with the consecutive losses to knock them out of the race, I don’t see the Flyers bringing a lot of emotion and intensity here. I’m tempted by the Maple Leafs to win in regulation time (they’re +100 on the 3-way moneyline at BetOnline), but I think the smarter play is going under this high total. My pick for tonight is the Maple Leafs/Flyers Under 7 at -123 odds.
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