With just three months away from the 2019 NFL regular season, the odds-makers have provided us a sample of how the upcoming campaign could play out with a number of bets. The latest set of odds that have been updated have been the OVER/UNDER win totals for each franchise in the National Football League.
In the NFL betting sites latest odds, they have the — no shocker here — New England Patriots at the very top of their list tallying 11 wins.
After the Patriots come the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams both placed at 10.5 wins, while the Kansas City Chiefs are right behind them at 10 wins. In the next tier at 9.5 wins, we have a total of five teams in that category — Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Even though we still have a slew of events to come before the regular season kicks off (like training camp, preseason and roster cuts), I want to go over three teams that are of interest with this particular OVER/UNDER bet before we go over the rest of the odds.
This is definitely one of the most fascinating bets on the list, and here’s why: With the Chicago Bears winning the NFC North, they’ll now be forced to place a tough first-place schedule. With that being said, however, the Bears’ defense is so elite where you won’t be able to help yourself from taking the OVER. The numbers speak for themselves: They were first in points allowed, first in interceptions, third in sacks, and they were also third in turnover differential leading the NFL in takeaways. Seriously, that’s incredibly elite and dominant.
But even though it was Khalil Mack and the rest of Chicago’s defense stealing the headlines, it was their offense led by Mitch Trubisky that was floating under the radar steadily improving. And to be honest with you, they’re actually pretty potent. The Bears averaged over 26 points-per-game last season, and they’re talented all across their offensive roster. And with second-year head coach Matt Nagy now having a season under his belt, sky is the limit now. But take this bet with caution: With the previously mentioned tough schedule that Chicago has, this bet may not become profitable until the near end of the season — after all, they did win their division last year. Myself, however, I have faith they’ll be able to break the double-digit win threshold.
The Seattle Seahawks are done, they said. They’re over, they said. And then Seattle went 10-6 with a 6-2 home record while also leading the nation in rushing. Needless to say, the pundits haven’t exactly been correct on this one. In my opinion, as long as Russell Wilson remains their quarterback, the Seahawks will always be a winning team that lingers among the playoff favorites. And here’s a positive factoid heading into their 2019 campaign: They would grab Mike Iaputi, improving an offensive line that was a bit ‘ehh’ last season.
Despite most having Seattle on a decline, the Seahawks would do their thing defeating teams like the Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers en route to a 10-6 regular season record and a postseason appearance. With Seattle likely to get two wins each over the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, and they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals at home, the Seahawks are in the driver’s seat for another double-digit win season.
Struggling to get a 6-10 record in 2018, this bet will be interesting because the odds-makers have the Detroit Lions’ at an OVER/UNDER of seven wins. In what could be another tough year for the Lions, it’s interesting that Las Vegas and company have them playing near-.500 football. Here’s the problem with that though: In their eight home contests this upcoming season, six of those games are against organizations with winning records. The other two? Well, they’re against the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two teams who will be much better than last season. Like I said, it could be a rough year for the Detroit Lions.
In the Lions’ defense, injuries killed their season last year. It was so bad for Detroit, that their only bright spot was an upset victory over the New England Patriots at home. From Week 7 until the end of the season, the Lions would only crack the 30 point threshold offensively just once. As a result, they would finish in the 25th ranking in points scored per game. There might be some improvement with Detroit signing talent such as Danny Amendola and Trey Flowers, but they’re just in too tough of a division to crack the seven-win threshold in my opinion. Take the UNDER, for sure.
Now let’s go over the rest of the National Football League with the teams and their odds.
The Atlanta Falcons are currently placed with an OVER/UNDER of nine wins, and I consider that extraordinarily risky to bet the OVER on. Offensively, the Falcons are perfect and still potent as usual, let by Matt Ryan (4,924 YDS, 35 TDS, 70.6 QBR), the elite duo of Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and the dominance of Julio Jones (1,677 YDS, 8 TDS) at wide receiver. In total, that talent contributed to the 10th best offense with 25.9 points-per-game. But here’s the problem with Atlanta: Their dismal defense. They were ranked 25th in the league last season with 26.4 points allowed-per-game against them. Needless to say, that defense needs a lot of work, and it scares the living hell out of me for a double-digit season. Take the UNDER.
PREDICTION: UNDER 9 (-130)
They would have a complicated year last season, but the Baltimore Ravens still found a way to win the AFC North Championship to put them into the playoffs. Not just that, but they got younger as well with up-and-coming superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson. Despite the double-digit win season last year, however, the youth at quarterback is exactly why the odds-makers are concerned and have the Baltimore Ravens with an OVER/UNDER of eight. I trust John Harbaugh and his system though, and I see big things coming from Lamar Jackson in his future, I see the Ravens at least getting nine wins in 2019. With that being said, take the OVER.
PREDICTION: OVER 8 (-130)
The Carolina Panthers come in with a potent offense, led by Cam Newton (3,395 YDS, 24 TDS) at quarterback and Christian McCaffrey, doing his thing in both the rushing and receiving yards. In the rushing department, McCaffrey would eclipse the 1,000 yard mark with 1,098 yards, and he would also punch in seven touchdowns. On the receiving side of things, he’d tally 867 yards and he’d also score six touchdowns. As a result, they’d be in the upper half in the league with an average of 23.5 points-per-game. The Panthers just need to get things worked on the defensive side of things, they allowed 23.9 points against them-per-game. Even if they did though, Carolina has a pretty tough schedule, this despite their 7-9 losing season. I have no choice but to place the UNDER, but if anybody can exceed expectations, it’s the Cam Newton-led Carolina Panthers.
PREDICTION: UNDER 7.5 (-115)
They may not have made the playoffs last season, but the 2018 campaign was still an explosive one for the Cleveland Browns. After posting a 2-6-1 record to start things off, the Cleveland Browns would then find themselves a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who would take the Browns to a 7-8-1 finish — even on the playoff bubble at one time. Mayfield was incredible for a rookie last season, throwing for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns. Nick Chubb would lead the way in the rushing department with 996 yards and eight touchdowns, and Jarvis Landry would do his thing in the receiving corp with 976 yards and four touchdowns. Last year’s rankings don’t concern me last year with Cleveland, too many roster and coaching changes to put too much judgment into that. And then you had their 2019 offseason, where they would land superstar talent Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt, and other effective talent such as Olivier Vernon. Needless to say, it could be a huge year for the Cleveland Browns, and I have enough faith in the talent on this team to place the OVER. Put Cleveland in the playoffs, jack!
PREDICTION: OVER 9 (-130)
If the Dallas Cowboys can get their offense rolling like their defense (and they obviously have the talent to do so), they’ll be a massively elite team. The Cowboys can get the offensive game moving quite easily too, they just need to flip the switch. Dak Prescott was abusing defenses with 3,885 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, and his sidekick Ezekiel Elliott, was extraordinarily dominant posting up 1,434 rushing yards and punching in six touchdowns. Amari Cooper leads the way in receiving for Dallas, receiving for 725 yards and six touchdowns. In points for per game, the Cowboys were ranked 22nd in the NFL last season. If they can get up to match the skill-set of their No. 8 ranked defense, the Cowboys are sitting pretty for well over 8.5 wins. I’ll bet on that too, give me the OVER.
PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 (-120)
The Denver Broncos might have had a losing 6-10 season in 2018, but they have the talent to improve their offense to try and match a pretty solid defense — they’re ranked 13th in the National Football League. On offense, they’re ranked in No. 24 with an average of 20.6 points-per-game. The offense is led by quarterback Case Keenum, who had a great season last year throwing for 3,890 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. In the rushing category, it would be Phillip Lindsay leading the way eclipsing the 1,000 mark tallying 1,037 rushing yards, and he’d also punch in nine touchdowns. On the receiving end, it would be Emmanuel Sanders leading the way with 868 receiving yards, and he’d also have four touchdowns. If the Denver Broncos’ offense can gain some more potency, they might find themselves back in the playoffs this year. I have faith in at least an 8-8 season from the Denver Broncos, take the OVER.
PREDICTION: OVER 7 (-110)
I’m telling you right now: The Green Bay Packers will be back in the playoffs this season, and they’ll do so hitting the OVER of 9.5 — in other words, it’ll be a double-digit win performance for Green Bay. Seriously, how can you bet against Aaron Rodgers? Last season, he was absolutely dominant with 4,442 passing yards and he’d also throw for 25 touchdowns. On the rushing end, Aaron Jones would lead the way with 728 rushing yards and he’d also punch in eight touchdowns. Davante Adams would do his thing on receiving, catching 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns. If the defense can be improved from 2018, the Packers could be in another Super Bowl, not just back in the postseason. Take the OVER for the Green Bay Packers.
PREDICTION: OVER 9.5 (+110)
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