Welcome to beautiful Miami, Florida!
On June 26-27, the first official debates of the Democratic Party will be held in paradise, and they’ll be broadcasted on NBC (and all of their other television networks) from 9:00-11:00 PM ET on both nights. The debates will also be held on NBC’s web and social media platforms for free.
We don’t all agree when it comes to politics, that’s for sure, which should make South Florida even hotter when the debates take place. But here’s something that we can all agree on: We all like money, and for the gambling community, this is especially true. Even if you’re a Republican like myself, there’s plenty of prop bets here that will keep you interested the entire two hours on each night. And after all, there’s 20 candidates in total in this thing competing for one spot, so expect fireworks to be all over the place.
US betting sites have released their odds for these prop bets, and folks over at the outlet believe that President Donald J. Trump will be the main focal point of the debates — and they’re probably right. It’s the epicenter of everybody’s world right now, especially the Democratic Party with the constant discussions of ‘impeachment’.
For the odds-makers, that’s the exact perception that they have. For their OVER/UNDER prop bet of ‘How many times will Donald Trump be mentioned during the June Democratic debates?’, they’ve set the numbers at an incredibly huge 45.5. They’ve also included a prop bet about the president’s actions himself that night, setting the OVER/UNDER at 2.5 for how many times he’ll bust out a tweet during the live debates — Trump is more known to react after the fact, so I’d personally bet the UNDER on that.
Another interesting bet will be for who gets the most speaking time, and with their 20 candidates split into two nights, and two hours apiece, the odds are understandably interesting. There’s also a prop bet that is concerning what topic will get us started off on the first debate night — climate, gun control, and health care are all in a three-way tie for first place at +350.
For the speaking time prop bet, Las Vegas and company currently has Elizabeth Warren as the favorite on the first debate night at +350. On the second night, it’s a tie between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at +325. I’d say these are definitely the best selections to make for the odds-makers, considering these are not only the top three in the polls, but they’ve also been the most vocal so far throughout the campaign.
Before we get into our first set of prop bets, keep in mind of what I just said: This is the first of 12 debates that the Democratic Party will be holding with their 20 candidates, and just the first set of props. As time goes along, the list will be updated and additions will make our gambling diversity so much better. Needless to say, this will be a pretty fun process.
Until then, enjoy your stay in sunny Miami!
For how many times that the president will be mentioned, I’m pretty sure that the Democrats have collectively gone over the number of 45.5 already in a single day somewhere on the campaign trail. Hell, candidates like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, even Kamala Harris, can’t seem to go 20 minutes without mentioning the president. Pete Buttigieg is the same way. It’s not just candidates either, it’s the entire party including their base. That’s the grand theme of the Democrats heading into 2020: President Trump and how to impeach or beat him. You can expect both nights to hit the OVER, and easily, I have zero doubts about that.
I would go ahead and take the UNDER on this bet. I understand that President Trump likes to tweet a lot, but here’s the thing: 1. He’s the President of the United States, and pretty busy as a result. 2. He’s currently dealing with the intense Iran situation. 3. He’s at the G20 Summit in Japan having meetings with both China and Russia, dealing with those tensions and their relationship with Iran. And 4. The president is the type to react after the fact, I don’t see him reacting to the debate as it’s happening live. Either a couple of hours after the debate is over, or the morning after, I could then see 2-4 tweets coming from the president, but live? I don’t see that happening. Place the UNDER.
This was definitely an issue for most throughout the majority of the campaign trail, but at this point, I think that it isn’t as big of an issue as it once was — especially for other candidates, journalists and the moderators. With that being the case, I would certainly take the UNDER. And also consider this fact: Buttigieg has also done well making a name for himself doing great in both fundraising and polling, and he’s also done great with media exposure — he’s just having a problem with the minority vote, mainly with African-Americans. He’s currently in the media left and right at the moment due to the controversy in his city that he’s mayor of (South Bend, Indiana). There, a black man would get shot by a police officer and he’s currently taking heat from the black community in the city. As a result, we’re continuously hearing his name. With all of that being said, take the UNDER. There shouldn’t be any problems here.
She’s a decent 100-point favorite over second-place Beto O’Rourke, and it’s for a reason — well, multiple reasons. Elizabeth Warren has definitely been one of the most vocal candidates on the campaign trail so far, and she’s been delivering policies left and right that have been pulling in solid numbers from support. What’s even more impressive is that she’s actually stealing numbers away from candidates, particularly from Bernie Sanders, continuing to kill his magic and momentum that he carried into 2019 from 2016. With her being successful at pulling in numbers, fundraising and being “loud” at rallies and other public appearances, why wouldn’t she do the same in an official Democratic Party debate? Expect Elizabeth Warren to be in full force on night one of debating.
He might be a bit of a loon, but when Beto O’Rourke is asked to speak, he certainly seizes the opportunity. I still see Elizabeth Warren getting the majority of the speaking time due to the majority of the passion (and policy ideas) being in her favor, but you have to remember, Beto O’Rourke was once a media darling. I’m sure there’s still a little love from in the press, NBC included. He’ll get his time as a result. And plus, look at who else is left on the list after him: Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Julian Castro, you see where this is going. When it comes to media star power, headlines and ratings, the second-choice after Elizabeth Warren is clear, and it’s Beto O’Rourke.
Here’s another opportunist who takes advantage of every opportunity to speak, and that’s Mr. ‘Spartacus’ himself, Cory Booker. The reason you have to put him in the third spot behind Warren and O’Rourke is because of the lack of star-power in the first debate, and Cory Booker isn’t a bad speaker either. He should get a similar amount to O’Rourke, but as far as him eclipsing Elizabeth Warren, he just doesn’t have the numbers to pull that off. Like I’ve already mentioned, the television business goes where the ratings are, and Warren has a passion and a base that’s just hard to compete with right now.
Not only is Joe Biden leading in the odds, he’s leading in the majority of polls against his Democratic competition. And even though I’m skeptical due to the 2016 polling, Biden is also ahead of President Donald Trump in the head-to-head polling as well. So why wouldn’t he be the favorite to speak the most during debate night? The moderators should come at Biden quite a bit with him being the front-runner, so expect plenty of Biden, and this is why I’d personally place my bet on Biden even with it being a tie with Bernie Sanders. Plus, think about it like this: As a media outlet, you want ratings, and you’re obviously going to go where the numbers are at. Joe Biden is currently where the numbers are at. Take Uncle Joe in this bet. And also consider this: He’ll be on the defense all night due to constant attacks, making those seconds add up for this solid prop bet — the moderators will give him opportunities to defend himself.
Bernie Sanders being tied with Joe Biden in the odds is self-explanatory, but let’s go over everything anyways. Sanders is still riding off of the magical wave from 2016’s campaign and his introduction of ‘Democratic Socialism’ to mainstream America, so with his policies being what it is and it causing constant debate, Bernie is sure to get plenty of speaking time due to plenty of questions from the moderators. As far as who will get the most speaking time between him and Biden? You have to ride with Biden. Not only is he the leader in the polls, but he’s getting more of the press’ backing than Sanders, and the establishment backs Biden as well. Still, Bernie will definitely get his time to speak, I wouldn’t worry about that.
With the latest controversy swirling around him, his rising star in the left-wing mainstream media, and his massive success with fundraising, you can definitely expect Pete Buttigieg to get his speaking time — especially since he sustains a popularity with both Democrats and Republicans. Buttigieg might have to compete with ratings-grabbers such as Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, even Kirsten Gillibrand, but Buttigieg should hold his own with the wave that he’s riding on. And with Buttigieg able to bring in numbers, NBC will call on his name plenty along with the others who make the headlines.
It’s a three-way tie between climate, gun control and health care at +350, but I would definitely ride with the climate in this one — it seems to be the Democratic Party’s latest talking point that’s taking the majority of the rhetoric. We all remember the Green New Deal, correct? The left-leaning mainstream media has also been pushing studies and reports that have been saying that climate change is becoming a major issue. Conservative media will debate this, and has actually debunked some of the content coming from the apparent studies, but that hasn’t stopped the Democrats from pushing climate change talking points. Also, don’t be surprised to see NBC start things off slow before they get into President Trump and impeachment. I’d ride with the climate in this prop bet.
With the consistent shootings that we have in the United States, and the Democrats and left-wing mainstream media taking advantage of everyone for political points, you better believe that gun control will be a big topic for the Democratic debates. I don’t think NBC and the DNC will start out the debates with a topic this hot and controversial though, I would ride with climate over gun control for sure. But I don’t blame the odds-makers for putting this issue at the top in a three-way tie, it’ll definitely be one of the earliest issues. Look for NBC and the Democrats to lead us into talking about President Trump and impeachment slowly, so gun control will surely be one of the first issues. Still, take climate over gun control.
It doesn’t matter which party’s debate you would watch, health care will always be a popular issue with anybody, and the upcoming Democratic debates won’t be any different. As far as health care being brought up first, I would pass on that. I expect NBC to use health care as one of their first issues to lead into President Trump and the impeachment debate, especially after Obamacare is still the law of the land — if you don’t remember, Republicans tried to repeal and replace Obamacare, but failed. With that being said, I’d still take climate. I don’t expect health care to get brought up until later on in the debate.
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