As far as how to bet on the AFC East this season, it’s pretty much going to be like every other season since, well, ever. You either have two options: 1. You can either put down a crap load of money on the New England Patriots to make a profit. It may be small in size, but it will be a profit nonetheless. Or 2. You can ride your money on either the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins, and watch your money disappear without a trace only to never see it again. The choice is yours.
In other words, you just need to ride with the New England Patriots if you’re going to invest your money into the AFC East. And why not? According to Bovada, they’re only a 1,000-plus point favorite over the second-place New York Jets in the odds. The New England Patriots place at a heavy favorite -550 figure to win the division, and if they do so (and they will), they’ll be the AFC East Champions for the 17th time in the past 18 years.
After the Patriots in the odds come the New York Jets way behind at +650, the Buffalo Bills a distant +1000 in third, and my poor Miami Dolphins come in a heavy dead-last at +2500 to round out the list for the AFC East division.
Let’s go over each team more in depth and review their chances to win the AFC East. And I’m sure you want mind me ruining it for you by telling you that the New England Patriots will win the division, again. I’m sure you already knew that though. Maybe you can find somewhere to bet on who will finish in second-place.
And don’t worry, NFL fans. I’ll have a special piece each for the AFC North, AFC South, and AFC West, and I’ll also cover the NFC East, NFC North, NFC South and NFC West.
Can you feel it in the air? Football is almost back!
We’ve said the same thing for nearly 20 years now at the beginning of NFL training camp: The New England Patriots will win the AFC East. Here in 2019, nothing has changed. As long as Tom Brady is the quarterback, no team will even come close to touching New England in the division. (Unless it’s another Brady injury like the 2008 season, where it would see my Miami Dolphins take the AFC East. But as durable as Tom Brady is, don’t look for that to happen, and I hope it doesn’t. Long live the G.O.A.T.!)
This just shows you how dominant the New England Patriots have been the last 18 years: They would finish 11-5 in the regular season last year, and that would be their worst regular-season finish since 2009. We know the rest, they would still go on to win the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams. But just let that sink in, really think about how glorious the Patriots have been the past two decades. Love them or hate them, you have to give kudos to their culture of winning. Yeah, it ruins it for the gambling community due to the lack of drama and good bets, but you still have to give New England credit — and no, they didn’t cheat.
Never mind the lack of evidence that any wrong-doing was even done, but for the sake of conversation, let’s say there was. For example: Deflategate. The Patriots allegedly deflated the balls during halftime when they were up 17-7. The Colts couldn’t score before or afterwards (the game resulted in a 45-7 score), so what exactly is the issue here? The Patriots were winning before, as always, so, problem? And what about every other playoff game that they’ve won? Can we please drop this narrative for 2019?
The Patriots did have a bit of a decline last season, mainly on the road — they tallied a 3-5 away record in 2018. Oh man, did the sports media have a field day with that, with several analysts like Max Kellerman pushing the narrative of “it’s over for the Patriots.” Oh, how foolish do they look now! New England would completely turn it on in the postseason and would roll through the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams to win yet another Super Bowl — their sixth as a franchise and second in three years. I’ve said it for ages now, and I’ll say it again: Ignore what the New England Patriots do in the offseason because it’s all completely irrelevant when they arrive into the playoffs. It’s a completely different team in that environment. You’ll see that again in 2019.
You can expect the same result year in and year out as long as Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are at the helm. For any team thinking they can go against history and change that mindset is absolutely ludicrous. When Brady retires, then we can have a serious conversation. If you have a crapload of free money, go ahead and place all of it on the Patriots, because this is a 100% guaranteed profit. The more put down, the better in this bet.
If you do want to have some fun with a risky bet, go ahead and lay some money down on the New York Jets. They would make some sexy moves during the offseason to bring in talent such as Le’Veon Bell, the first running back that the Jets can trust since Curtis Martin, and they would also make a big splash on defense by stealing MLB CJ Mosley away from the Baltimore Ravens. I don’t know about beating the Patriots at all, but they might have a successful 8-8 or 9-7 season, maybe 10-6. With that being said, however, this is the New York Jets we’re talking about, so you never know. Even if they do have maximum success though, you can expect them to still be sitting in second behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East.
Going back to the Jets’ defense, they certainly have the opportunity to do some damage this year and carry New York to a possible wild card berth. Not only does CJ Mosley add speed to that defense, but you’ll also have Leonard Williams and Quinnen Williams on the defensive line, and with both of their presence there, they’ll be shutting down running games all season long. Expect the Jets’ 26th place ranking in rushing yards allowed to substantially improve this season after putting Quinnen Williams on the D-line. The Jets will be fun to watch defensively, that’s for sure.
Here’s the problem for the New York Jets though: You won’t be able to have much faith in their offense. QB Sam Darnold is still in the development stage, and we’re still not even sure if he’ll be able to be their franchise quarterback.
For the sake of conversation, let’s say Darnold is poised to have a good season. Even if that was the case, the Jets didn’t grab any receivers in the offseason. Robbie Anderson won’t be able to do it on his own, particularly for their deep threat. With the short pass, Darnold will have options with Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder, but if they have nothing to mix it up, defenses will shut them down left and right.
If you’re going to bet on anybody outside of the New England Patriots to win the AFC East, it would certainly be the New York Jets. They’re the only team that has a “serious chance” of dethroning the Patriots, but let’s be honest, that’s not happening. But just imagine if they did win the division, those +650 odds would be amazingly profitable — talk about a payday. Even though I don’t see that happening, however, I’d go ahead and place the OVER on their projected win total that’s placed at seven. I’ll give them that, but that’s all they’ll get from me.
Other than a touchdown run here and there from QB Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills offense is pretty much dead. And that’s where the conversation ends as far as them winning the AFC East. Buffalo did absolutely nothing in the offseason to improve their offense and to help out Allen, so expect his second-year legs to be in full-force, even more, this season.
Not only would Allen lead NFL rookie quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns, but he would even lead his own team in on-the-ground TD’s with a total of eight punched in — it just shows you how bad things are in Buffalo. Despite Allen’s success in Buffalo, however, he still needs to figure out the throwing part of the position, which is obviously the main part of the job. He would struggle in 2018 ranking dead last in the league with a 52.8 competition percentage, and he would have an absolutely dismal 5.8 yards-per-attempt. Josh Allen will have to improve that drastically.
There aren’t much positives on this team, but their defense is still going to come into the new season pretty good. And unlike most teams at the bottom of the NFL, the Bills didn’t go a massive losing streak last season — they would finish with a 6-10 record. With that being said, despite a positive here and there, this isn’t a good football team at all, and they have zero chance of winning the AFC East or making the playoffs. This is a team that’s only made the playoffs one time since the 2001 season, so if you put your money on the Buffalo Bills, you’re kissing it goodbye.
Dave Chappelle said it best: “What can be said about the Miami Dolphins that hasn’t been said about Afghanistan? It looks bombed out and depleted!” As much as pains me to hear that joke as a Miami Dolphins fan, it also happens to be true and hilarious. All-around, the Dolphins are just a bad football team, plain and simple. Everywhere you look on the roster, there’s a hole. You look over here, hole. You look over there, hole. Everywhere, holes. Just check out some of their statistics from last season: They would rank 31st in rushing yards allowed, and they would place 27th in points allowed per game. I don’t get how you’re an organization based in South Florida and you’re this bad. It’s embarrassing.
On the bright side, the Dolphins have been able to move on from their dark days of Ryan Tannehill. The problem is, the replacement really isn’t that great with Josh Rosen at the helm and them putting their faith into him as the quarterback of the future. As an analyst of the NFL and fan of the Miami Dolphins, I really don’t see this working out well. But there may be a bright spot here for Miami: Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s became a yearly thing now where Fitzpatrick works some magic for a few games and puts up video game-like stats, so the Dolphins will get some results from Fitz — but for how long? That’s the question. And how long before they bench Fitzpatrick for Rosen? As you can see, this has the potential to be a long year for the Miami Dolphins.
Fitzpatrick or Rosen, it doesn’t matter what quarterback the Miami Dolphins use, their shot of winning the AFC East or making the playoffs is completely non-existent.
You have to also remember: This is the same team with just one highlight last season, and that was them beating the New England Patriots in South Florida on an incredibly magical last-second play.
Like I’ve already mentioned, the Miami Dolphins are the only team to steal away the AFC East away from the Tom Brady-led Patriots — they did so in 2008 after Brady suffered a season-ending injury. With that being said, however, with how bad they could be this year and their heavy long shot +2500 odds, you’d have to be on the sucker side to put your money here, and that’s being nice.
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