Last season was utter domination for the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, and that helps when you’re the only team in the division to finish with a winning record. Oh, and they were also the only ones that had a positive point differential. Needless to say, it was a blow away for the Saints to earn their second consecutive division title.
Here in 2019, the odds-makers are seeing the same thing happening with New Orleans placed at hefty -190 odds — they’re actually the second-highest favorite to win their division out of all of the top-dogs across the league. The only team they place behind: Tom Brady and his New England Patriots at an insane -550, but after all, they are in the AFC East with the unlucky New York Jets, dismal Buffalo Bills and my beloved, yet horrendous, Miami Dolphins.
It’s a bit more solid for the Saints to be that high of a favorite against competition such as the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, despite all three finishing below .500 last season.
According to web-based sportsbook Bovada, the New Orleans Saints are the favorites to take the NFC South at -190, followed by the Atlanta Falcons in second place at +350. The Carolina Panthers sit at +550 for third place, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the dead-last fourth position at a distant +1200.
Let’s go over each team of the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers more in depth, their odds, and review their chances of winning the 2019 NFC North.
This is one of my favorite divisions to cover, as I think the city of New Orleans is dope, I’m a shareholder of the Atlanta Braves (Go Falcons as a result!), I love Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers growing up in southern Virginia just minutes from the North Carolina state line, and I’ve rooted for Jameis Winston since his Florida State days. With attachments to all four for me, this is going to be fun!
You can also read my previews and see my predictions on the AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, NFC East, and NFC North as well, and you can also look forward to my last installment of division previews and predictions in the NFC West in the near future.
One of the most dominant teams in the National Football League in 2018 were the New Orleans Saints, and if it wasn’t for the controversial no-call that happened against the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs, the Saints would have been in the Super Bowl last season. But you know the old saying: “Coulda, shoulda, woulda though.”
With that being said, however, they have the numbers to prove it. They would lock up the best record on the road with a blazing 7-1, and on top of that, they would have the best point differential at a crazy +151. Those numbers of greatness would lead New Orleans to an elite 13-3 record, the best tally that the Saints have put up since the 2011 season.
There was a bit of concern from the Saints about their running game after a suspension would take Mark Ingram out of action, but second-year Alvin Kamara would step up in a huge way. He would tally a superb 1,592 all-purpose yards, and would also collect 18 touchdowns on the year as well.
While that breakout was happening, Drew Brees would hit a career-high by having a completion percentage of 74.4%. To go along with that elite number, he would also throw for 3,992 yards — nearly eclipsing the 4,000 yard-mark — and would have 32 touchdowns as well. Very potent offense to lead to that 13-3 record.
New Orleans would go out and improve themselves even more by picking up free agents Jared Cook (Oakland Raiders) and Latavius Murray (Minnesota Vikings). With Cook, in particular, he could possibly fill a huge need for the Saints, a team who has been looking for a reliable tight end since Jimmy Graham. New Orleans is hoping he can be that guy. As far as Murray is concerned, he will be a nice asset behind Alvin Kamara, mainly due to his ability to provide a different pace than Kamara and dodging tackles with the run.
With minimal losses in the offseason and nothing but improvement it seems for the Saints, you can expect New Orleans to be even better than their 13-3 version of the team last season. And with that being said, that’s why you have to make the New Orleans Saints the heavy favorite. It’s going to take major improvements and some serious magic for any team in the division to counter the Saints for the NFC North crown.
The Atlanta Falcons would do their thing in the 2016 and 2017 seasons, putting up back-to-back playoff appearances (including a Super Bowl berth in ’16) in that stretch. However, the Falcons would take a step back posting a losing record of 7-9, which is the worst performance for Atlanta since 2014.
The entire season was .500 football for the Falcons, placed at 4-4 at the halfway mark, and then a skid of losing five in a row and then winning three straight would put them at the dreaded ‘7-9, 8-8, 9-7’ range. The only positive way I can spin that is maybe they’ll have some momentum carried into the new season from that three-game winning streak, it could happen.
As far as Atlanta’s offense was concerned, it was potent as usual, placing in the top 10 in the National Football League in points-per-game (10th), and they would also hit the top five in passing yards-per-game (4th). Quarterback Matt Ryan was just as brilliant as his 2016 MVP season, putting up similar numbers throwing just 20 fewer yards than that year — he would also throw just three fewer touchdowns.
Also per usual, the Falcons defense was once again horrendous, and I mean one of the ‘worst in the league’ horrendous. They would give up the seventh-highest points-per-game, and would also take hits to linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal in the form of injuries. Their defense is a problem that Atlanta has been dealing with for years now, and you can expect that to continue this season.
Though they didn’t improve their defense at all, the Falcons would boost up their offense a bit more, particularly their offensive line. In free agency, they would grab two guards in Jamon Brown and James Carpenter. Those two moves should bulk up the middle pretty good, providing more time to Ryan for playmaking and creating a bit more space for running back Devonta Freeman. They would also pick up guard Chris Lindstrom (Boston College) in the draft as well with their first-round selection.
The Atlanta Falcons are a solid team and definitely have the chance to end their two-year drought and make the playoffs this season. However, their defense and durability will be two major issues as the season progresses. As a result, even though I think they can make a postseason run, I’m not even close to tempted to pick the Falcons to take out the Saints for the NFC South championship. The Saints are way too far ahead, including over second-place Atlanta — shout out to the ATL though!
Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers had an extraordinarily weird season in 2018. In the first half, everything was great for the Panthers with an elite 6-2 start. After that, however, Carolina would crumble losing seven consecutive games on the way to a losing 7-9 record.
Going back to Newton for a minute though, he was the reason why the Panthers would fall so hard. The former MVP would suffer a shoulder injury and he would struggle to throw the ball. Not only that, but he’d also struggle on the ground as well, tallying less than 30 yards in four of his last six games.
Despite the depressing season, Carolina would find themselves an elite weapon for the future, and that’s running back Christian McCaffrey. He would put up absolutely incredible numbers, rushing for 1,098 yards on the ground while punching in seven touchdowns. Through the air, he would catch 867 yards and six of his 107 catches would be for touchdowns.
Over the last six games of the season, Cam Newton would suffer an incredible 17 sacks in that span. As a result, the Panthers would go out and spend money in free agency to improve their offensive line.
Carolina also took care of another weakness on the defensive side of the ball, where they would rank No. 6 in the NFL for the fewest sacks against the opposition. In the NFL Draft, they would go out and select Brian Burns with their first-round pick, an edge rusher out of Florida State University that is sure to add to their sack tally.
If the Carolina Panthers can keep Cam Newton both protected and healthy, everything else should fall in place with this team — each on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. As a result, I’m seeing some serious value with the Panthers and their +550 odds. I still have the New Orleans Saints as my NFC South champions, but Carolina is definitely the best long shot of the bunch.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have missed the playoffs a ridiculous amount of consecutive years — 11 straight to be exact. They would hit that 11 plateau after recording a back-to-back 5-11 season.
Thanks to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, things were great for the Buccaneers to begin the season. ‘Fitz’ would put up video-game like numbers, throwing for a monstrous 1,230 yards and 11 touchdowns in just three games — the first three of the season. With Fitzpatrick putting up historic numbers while Jameis Winston was suspended, it would nearly lead Tampa Bay to an undefeated 3-0 start (they would hit the 2-1 mark), and it would cause a temporary quarterback controversy in central Florida.
Unlike the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t have a single bright spot with their losing season — it was pretty bad. Throughout the whole season, they would have a running back rush for over 100 yards in just one game, and that was Payton Barber with 106 yards in Week 11. When Jameis Winston came back, he would play 11 games, and would just tally 19 touchdowns in those appearances. He would also throw for a horrendous 14 interceptions.
It wasn’t just their offense that was poor either, it was also on the defensive side, and it was just as bad. In the NFL rankings, they were placed next to dead last in most points allowed-per-game with a statistic of 29.0. It was just an overall horrible season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They would make some improvements in the offseason, however, including re-signing offensive tackle Donovan Smith, who has been consistently improving over his four seasons. As far as new additions go, they would bring a duo of linebackers in Deone Bucannon and Shaquil Barrett that should boost up their defensive numbers. They would also add wide receiver Breshad Perriman, a speedy and solid option for Jameis Winston. The problem with Perriman, though, is that he’s dealt with injuries throughout his entire career — the same is very likely to happen in Tampa Bay.
One good thing about the Buccaneers doing so bad last season is that they would receive the No. 5 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft as a result. With that pick, they would select linebacker Devin White out of LSU, the winner of the prestigious Butkus Award which is given to the best linebacker in the nation.
Even with the improvements, go ahead and pass on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m not seeing much progress in 2019, and honestly wouldn’t be shocked at a third straight 5-11 season. There’s no value whatsoever with their +1200 odds, so don’t even consider them and your money being together.
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