The Buffalo Bills travel to Gillette Stadium for a Saturday match-up against the New England Patriots.
The Bills picked up a road win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. With the win, Buffalo booked a ticket to the playoffs and with two playing dates left, they still have a chance to do more by winning their first division title since 1995. But that’s not an easy task because they need to win out their remaining games and hope that the Patriots drop their two remaining assignments. New England is 11-3 on the season and a win here will clinch the AFC East for the 11th straight season. New England defeated Buffalo 16-10 in their first meeting of the season in Buffalo.
After defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 on the road last weekend, the Buffalo Bills improved to 10-4 on the season and booked their second playoff appearance in the last three seasons. Before making the postseason two seasons ago, Buffalo had not made the playoffs since 1999.
Josh Allen has thrown for a total of 2,876 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Devin Singletary leads Buffalo in rushing with 729 rushing yards and two touchdowns while John Brown has caught a total of 71 passes for 1,007 receiving yards and five TD catches. Taron Johnson is questionable while Corey Liuget and Ty Nsekhe are out.
The defense has been the key to Buffalo’s success this season. The Bills rank 2nd in points allowed at 15.9 points per game and they are 3rd in total yards given up at 291.9 yards per game. However, their offense hasn’t been as efficient as they rank only 23rd in total offensive yards at 336.1 yards per game and 22nd in scoring at 20.8 points per game.
The New England Patriots are looking to continue their divisional dynasty. The Patriots have won the AFC East in the last 10 seasons and are aiming at an 11th straight division title. The team was 5-11 in Bill Belichick’s first season but since then, they’ve won at least 10 games in 18 out of the last 19 seasons, winning six Super Bowl titles along the way.
Tom Brady has passed for a total of 3,565 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Sony Michel has rushed for a total of 742 yards with 6 touchdowns on 208 carries. Julie Edelman has caught 92 passes for 1,019 receiving yards with six touchdown catches. Jonathan Jones, Shaq Mason, and Julian Edelman are questionable for this contest. Byron Cowart and Jason McCourty are listed as out.
Like Buffalo, the defense has been New England’s calling card this season. The Patriots are the best defensive team in the league, allowing an NFL-best 268.4 total yards per game and 12.9 points per game. New England heads to this game on the heels of a scandal that saw them video their opponent’s practice.
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Bills are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played, and 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played against the AFC East Division. New England is 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played. The Patriots are 19-1 SU in their last 20 games played at home. Head to head, the Patriots are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bills. New England is also 16-2 SU in their last 18 home games played against Buffalo.
The Bills’ defense has been their main weapon this season. In their last game, Buffalo held Pittsburgh to only 229 yards of offense and won the game 17-10. The Bills are third in the NFL in yards given up and second in points allowed. However, we will have to see if that defense will be enough to make up for owning the 23rd ranked total offense in the league in a game against the Super Bowl Champs.
New England is looking to clinch an 11th consecutive division title. The Patriots are 11-3 on the year and they have won at least 11 games in 10 straight seasons. However, win number 11 didn’t come easy as the Pats needed a big second half to break away from the hapless Buccaneers who only trailed 10-13 at the half.
Don’t count out the Bills here because they still have a chance to win their first division title since 1995, that is if they win their last two games and the Patriots drop their final two assignments. On the other side, New England is out to make a statement and announce that it is ready for another Super Bowl run. Both teams have excellent defenses but New England’s is slightly better. The Pats are 8-0 SU in their last eight home divisional games.
PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in seven road games played this season, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the AFC East Division. New England is 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games played. The Patriots are 3-3 ATS in six home games played on the road, 6-1 ATS in their last seven December games. Head to head, New England is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played against Buffalo.
The first game between these two teams this season was close. In that game, the Bills covered the spread as seven-point underdogs after losing 10-16 in Buffalo. However, the stakes are much higher in this game with New England’s 11th straight division title on the line. I still trust the Patriots and I think they will try to make a statement here. New England is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 divisional games.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS
The total has gone under in six out of the last seven games played by the Bills. Buffalo has seen the total go under in eight out of their last nine games played on the road. The total has gone under in 10 out of the last 15 games played by the Patriots. The under is 4-2 in New England’s six home games played this season, 5-1 in their last six games played against an opponent from the AFC East, and 11-4 in their last 15 December games. Head to head, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
These teams have combined to score an average of 31.0 points per game in their last three meetings. The last three head to head games between these teams has gone under with the total not going more than 36 points in those games. I think we’ll see a playoff type of game where the defenses step up and the points are few. I like these teams to play to the under in this game.
PREDICTION: UNDER 36.5
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