The Denver Nuggets travel to the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night.
The game will be the first of three straight on the road for the Nuggets who are playing short-handed right now. Denver lost to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night as they played without Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, and Gary Harris. The three are expected to miss this game, giving Minnesota a good shot here. The Wolves got Karl Anthony Towns back but KAT is still not in 100% form. Andrew Wiggins has struggled in the last 10 games and the Wolves have lost five in a row heading to this showdown. But Minnesota is the favorite here because Denver is without three starters and the Nuggets are playing the second of a back to back schedule on the road.
The Denver Nuggets open a three-game road trip with a visit to the Target Center and a showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver is playing on back to back nights as they head to Minnesota after absorbing a 107-115 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night.
The Nuggets played without three starters. Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, and Gary Harris were all nursing injuries. Nikola Jokic had a monster scoring game with 30 points and Will Barton stepped up with 16 points for Denver. Michael Porter Jr. added 10 points and P.J. Dozier had 8 for the undermanned Nuggets team.
Denver ranks 18th in the league in scoring at 109.5 points per game. But the Nuggets have the third-best scoring defense at 105.5 opponent points per game allowed. They are 19th in rebounding at 44.6 boards grabbed per contest and are 3rd in passing at 26.3 assists per game.
Minnesota lost to the Toronto Raptors at home last Saturday night. The loss was the Wolves’ third straight at their home court and their fifth consecutive defeat overall. Minnesota got Karl Anthony Towns back in action two games ago and they hope their star big man finds his form soon so that they can start picking up wins.
Towns put up 12 points and 6 rebounds against the Raptors after scoring 27 points in his first game back. Andrew Wiggins had 18 points for Minnesota but it was Jarrett Culver who had a big game last Saturday with 26 points. Robert Covington had 22 points but was 4-13 from behind the three-point arc.
Minnesota ranks 15th in scoring at 111.4 points per game this season. They are 7th off the glass at 46.2 rebounds per contest and are 22nd in passing at 22.8 assists per game. The Timberwolves are 25th in scoring defense as they are allowing their opponents to score an average of 114.7 points per game this season.
Entering Sunday’s games, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Denver is 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played. The Wolves are 2-3 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Timberwolves.
The Nuggets suffered a big blow after Jamal Murray injured his ankle during the team’s Wednesday win over the Charlotte Hornets. According to the latest reports, Murray is out for the “foreseeable future”. Along with Murray, Paul Millsap and Gary Harris are also out. But if P.J. Dozier can continue to play good minutes and Michael Porter Jr. can step up his offensive production, I think Denver will be okay- at least against the Wolves.
Minnesota has lost five straight games but they have a healthy lineup with Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins leading them. But Towns hasn’t looked 100% yet after missing some time and Wiggins averaging just 15 points per game in his last 10 outings, this team is struggling to find its rhythm.
Denver is without three starters in Millsap, Harris, and Murray. But we’ve seen their other guys like Porter, Dozier, and Barton step up. If the Nuggets’ role players continue to deliver and play around Jokic, they can still be a tough team to beat, especially for the lower-ranked teams like Minnesota.
PREDICTION: DENVER NUGGETS
Denver is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played before Sunday’s games. The Nuggets are 3-3 SU in their last six games played on the road, and 5-6 ATS in 11 road games played against the Western Conference. Minnesota is also 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Wolves are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played at home, and 4-9 in their last 13 games played against the Western Conference. Head to head, the Wolves are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have won the last three meetings between these two teams by an average winning margin of 5 points per game. Denver is also the more superior team this season but with Jamal Murray out for the “foreseeable future” with the ankle injury he sustained last Wednesday plus the fact that Denver is playing back to back games here, they are the underdogs in this matchup. However, I still think that the Nuggets have better team play overall. Minnesota isn’t just playing well right now, not enough to beat the injury-ravaged Nuggets.
PREDICTION: NUGGETS +2.5
Heading to Sunday, the total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go over in five out of their last six games on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Timberwolves. The under is 3-2 in the last five home games played by Minnesota.
These teams have combined to score an average of 200.33 points per game in their last three meetings, including 198 and 209 in their first and second meetings of the season, respectively. Denver’s missing too many starters here and if they are to win this game, which I think they will, they will have to do it with defense. I like these teams to hit the under. Towns and Wiggins haven’t played up to par as of late for Minnesota and the Wolves have scored an average of 107.6 points per game in their last five assignments.
PREDICTION: UNDER 219
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