The St. Mary’s Gaels take on the BYU Cougars in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament on Monday night at the Orleans Arena.
The Gales defeated Pepperdine in double OT last Saturday to advance to the semifinals while the Cougars received a double-bye for finishing second in the conference during the regular season. These two teams split their first two meetings of the season with the home team winning each game. The Gaels picked up an 87-84 win over the Cougars last January 9, 2020, while BYU defeated St. Mary’s 81-79 last February 1, 2020. BYU has won nine straight including a 91-78 home win over top-seeded Gonzaga last February 22nd.
The St. Mary’s Gaels needed two extra periods to book their ticket to the semifinals of the West Coast Conference. The third-seeded Gaels survived Pepperdine 89-82 in double overtime to advance to the next round where they will face the 15th ranked and top-seeded BYU Cougars.
Superstar guard Jordan Ford scored a career-high 42 points in the game against Pepperdine. The senior guard played all 50 minutes of the game and shot 17-30 from the floor including 5-12 from three-point distance. Ford has put up four consecutive 20-point games and has a total of 20 20point games this season.
St. Mary’s is scoring an average of 75.9 points per game and is making 48.3% of their field goals this season. The Gaels are limiting their opponents to only 66.5 points per game and are collecting an average of 32.2 rebounds, blocking 2.0 shots, and picking up 6.6 steals per game while issuing 12.2 assists per contest.
The BYU Cougars have not won a conference title since 2001 when they were with the Mountain West Conference. Now they are two wins away from finally winning their first conference title in nearly two decades. The quest begins on Monday when they take on the third-seeded St. Mary’s Gaels in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament.
Senior forward Yoeli Childs leads the WCC in scoring at 22.2 points per game and he is also averaging 8.9 rebounds per contest. Childs and fellow seniors TJ Haws and Jake Toolson were named to the All-WCC first-team selection. Haws is averaging 14.3 points and 5.8 assists per game while Toolson has made a team-high 82 three-pointers while averaging 15.3 points per game.
The Cougars are putting up an average of 80.6 points per game and they are allowing their opponents to score 68.9 points per game this season. BYU is shooting 50.4% from the field and issuing an average of 17.7 assists per game. They are grabbing 33.2 rebounds, blocking 2.1 shots per game and averaging 5.9 steals per game.
St. Mary’s is 5-1 SU in their last six games played. The Gaels are 2-2 SU in their last four games played. BYU is 9-0 SU in their last nine games played. The Cougars 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home, and 9-0 SU in their last nine games against the West Coast Conference. Head to head, the Gaels are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Cougars but BYU has won two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.
The Gaels outlasted Pepperdine 89-82 in double overtime last Saturday to advance to this semifinals showdown against BYU. Jordan Ford is coming off a career-night against Pepperdine but fatigue could be a factor as he played all 50 minutes of Saturday’s game.
BYU is looking to end a 19-year title drought this season. They are the top-seeded team in the tournament and have won their last nine conference games. The Cougars got a double-bye after finishing second during the regular season. Senior Yoeli Childs is the WCC conference’s top scorer this season.
BYU needs two more wins to end a two-decade title drought and the 3rd seeded Gaels are standing in their way. St. Mary’s played in a double-overtime game last Saturday while the Cougars are well-rested. Both their stars are coming off big games but I think that the more experienced and better-shooting BYU team wins this.
PREDICTION: BYU COUGARS
The Gaels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played. St. Mary’s is 2-2 ATS in their last four games played on the road, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in March. The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played. BYU is 3-2 ATS in their last five games played at home, 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games, and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as betting favorites.
These teams split their first two meetings with the road team covering the spread in each game. Both these teams shoot well from deep and protect the ball well. However, BYU does both better and they have senior forward Yoeli Childs who can take advantage of St. Mary’s suspect defense. I like Childs to have a big night here as BYU wins the game and covers the reasonable spread.
PREDICTION: BYU -4.5
The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by St. Mary’s. The over is 3-1 in the Gaels’ last four road games played, and 6-1 in their last seven conference games played. The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 15 games played by BYU. The over is 5-0 in the Cougars’ last five games played at home, and 5-2 in their last seven games played in March. Head to head, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings although the over is 2-1 in the most recent three encounters.
The over is 2-0 in the first two meetings between these two teams this season and both games were played at a fast pace. These are two very good three-point shooting ballclubs who have low turnover rates. St. Mary’s has gone over the 145.5 total in their last four games played, scoring at least 76 points in those games. For its part, BYU has scored at least 80 points in eight out of their last 10 outings. This one should go over 150 points.
PREDICTION: OVER 145
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