Successful sports betting is completely about information. It’s about the information you access and how you interpret it. Interpreting information is challenging because, in many cases, the people setting the lines have as much, or more, information as you do.
But what happens when you have more information than the books setting the lines? Is this even possible in today’s technologically advanced world? It seems like any statistic or current news item can quickly be found on your phone. So how can you get an information advantage?
The quick answer to this question seems easy. Of course, more information is an advantage. But is it really? Doesn’t it depend on what you do with the information?
I am a firm believer that more information is good, but I also do everything in my power to make sure that large amounts of information don’t become a problem.
One of the dangers of having more information is that it can lead to over analyzing things. Another issue is that you need to take additional time to process extra information.
Sometimes additional information can be quickly analyzed and used, like when you find out that a team’s starting quarterback is going to miss the next game. In almost every case, when a starting quarterback misses a game the team’s offensive performance suffers. Then the next question is how much the performance will suffer.
When the books find out the starting quarterback is going to miss a game, they quickly adjust the line to account for the difference in the expected outcome.
All of the questions I’ve asked so far are designed to help you think about information. Some of the questions are difficult to answer. There’s not always a right or wrong answer. But thinking through these types of questions will help you decipher through various bets.
You have more information available to help you make educated betting decisions at this time than you’ve ever had in the past. But so does everyone else, including the sportsbooks.
This means that the bettors who’re able to rise to the top aren’t always the ones with the most information. The ones that profit the most are the ones that can sift through the information, identify what’s important, and discard everything else.
The answer is that you need to focus on finding and using helpful information and learn how to ignore everything else. This isn’t easy, but it’s an important key needed to unlock more profitability when you handicap sporting events.
I just covered how everyone has access to more information than in the past. This trend is going to continue, and this is going to make it even more difficult to access true inside information in the future. But this doesn’t mean that you should ignore the advantage of getting inside information.
The one element in getting information that’s never going to change is the human one. All information is originated in one way or another by a human. Even computer programs that analyze huge amounts of information must access the data from somewhere, and humans are responsible for creating the base data.
What this means for you as a sports bettor is that if humans are involved, you have an opportunity to access inside information.
Who knows the quarterback is hurt first? It’s usually the quarterback.
Who’s the second person to learn about an injury? Most times, it’s the trainer or someone on the training staff, but sometimes it’s a family member or friend of the player. This is followed by people on the coaching staff and then the front office. The information is eventually acquired by the media, and then it’s out there for the world to access.
At what point do the sportsbooks have access to the information? Usually, they access it from a media outlet, just like most people. But what if there was a way to access the information before the media?
With the line of people who find out about an injury before the media, surely there’s some opportunity to find out before the information is widely available.
The main point I’m trying to make in this section is that what most gamblers think of as inside information isn’t true inside information. Unless you can figure out a reliable way to insert yourself between the source of the information and the media, you aren’t going to find an advantage that you can use.
Now the important thing to start thinking about is how to put yourself in a position where true inside information is available. Who do you know and who can you build relationships with that will prove to be beneficial?
What kind of information are you targeting? Injury information can be valuable, but it’s not the only type of information. Information about when a regular player is going to have a night off is an example of valuable information.
Some managers have tendencies to give a great player a day off before an off day if they’ve been playing every game. This is just an example to get your thought process started.
Sometimes being a winning sports bettor is about figuring out 100 little things instead of finding one big thing. The sportsbooks can usually figure out the one big thing, but they don’t always have the time or manpower to figure out 100 little things.
The most valuable information for most sports bettors today is the fast availability of a wide range of sportsbooks and their lines. This doesn’t have anything to do with inside information, but it can be just as valuable for smart sports bettors.
The ability to place bets on a consistent basis that are a half or one run or point off the consensus line is quite valuable over time. This is an area where any sports bettor can look for a small edge, no matter what their level of handicapping skill is.
You can find lines from dozens of sportsbooks, both online and physical books, with a quick search on your computer or phone. Yet most sports bettors still place all their bets with one or two books.
They might spend hours handicapping a contest but won’t take a few minutes to find the best line before they make a bet. This doesn’t make sense to me, yet I see it time and time again.
Information can be advantageous to sports bettors if they know what to do with it. Are you asking yourself the right questions when it comes to information?
Remember that the way to profit from all the available information is to learn how to identify the important facts and discard the rest. Focus on this skill, and you have a good chance to improve your betting results.
If you don’t have access to true inside information, is there anything you can do to start accessing it? Just like the punters who fail to shop for the best line, failing to think about ways to develop relationships that can lead to true inside information puts you at a significant disadvantage.
Winning sports bettors work hard. Anyone can throw darts to pick the teams to bet on, and that’s what most sports bettors are doing. But you can advance to the next level when you become a master of information.
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