After allowing Tom Brady to transfer to Tampa sink in, let’s take a look at what the oddsmakers think Brady’s numbers will be during the 2020 NFL season.
It was unthinkable that Tom Brady would don another NFL jersey after transforming the New England Patriots into a dynasty. But that happened early during the free agency period after he announced that he would be signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At first, that sounded unreal but now that we have finally digested that transaction, let’s see how Brady will do with his new team.
In Tampa Bay, Brady will be playing for a new system under offensive guru Bruce Arians. He will also have the best duo of receivers in his career in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs have never had a franchise quarterback in their history. Now they have Tom Brady.
Tom Brady has not thrown more than 11 interceptions since 2011 when he threw 12. During his 19 year tenure as a starter with the Patriots, he threw single-digit interceptions in 10 seasons. Last year, he only got intercepted eight times.
But while Brady has been efficient in that department throughout his career, let’s consider that he is playing in a new offense, has more passing weapons that he’s ever had in his career, and is already 43 years old.
Historically, quarterbacks under head coach Bruce Arians throw way more than 11 picks in a single season. During Carson Palmer’s first season under Arians, he threw a career-high 22 interceptions. Overall, Palmer threw 57 interceptions in 60 games under Arians who loves his QBs to air out the passes.
Andrew Luck also threw 12 interceptions in his rookie year under Arians. And don’t forget Jameis Winston threw the ball away 30 times last season. Tom Brady is far superior to any of those QBs I mentioned. But 11 is a very low number and given that Brady will be playing for a new team, with a new offense, and high-quality receivers, I think he throws at least 12 interceptions next season.
Prediction: Over 11.5
Tom Brady has thrown over 4,000 passing yards six times since 2010 including three out of the last five seasons. He threw for only 4,057 last season but remember that he didn’t have his favorite receiver last season after Gronk retired after their Super Bowl win in 2019. He doesn’t have a favorite receiver this season but he may be playing alongside the two best wideouts he’s ever had in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Bot Evans and Godwin topped 1,000 receiving yards last season despite both missing games due to injury. Perennial Pro Bowler Evans had 67 catches for 1,157 yards with 8 TDs last season while Godwin had a breakout year with 86 catches for 1,333 receiving yards with nine scores.
Brady is also playing in a new offense and his new coach is known as an offensive guru. Remember that despite throwing 30 interceptions, Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing touchdowns last season. Bruce Arians rejuvenated Carson Palmer in Tampa Bay and he’s also worked with passing greats Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.
Brady will have more passing opportunities with Arians. He also has better weapons in Evans and Godwin. When you dissect it, 4,300 passing yards in a season translates to 269 passing yards per game. That’s not too high for the GOAT. But remember that he is already 43 years old and showed signs of regression last season due to an arm injury.
Prediction: This will be close but I will have to go with UNDER 4300
While Brady is the GOAT, he has thrown over 30 touchdowns only six times during his career. He’s done so twice in the last five years, the last of which was in 2017 when he threw a total of 32.
Again, Brady will have better weapons this year in Evans and Godwin. He’s never played with better receivers in his career. Playing with an offense that likes to go deep, I think 31 will be a very doable number even for a 43-year old version of Tom Brady.
Brady hasn’t missed a game since 2016 when he was suspended for four games due to Deflategate. If he plays all 16 games, I think this is an easy pick to make. The only problem here is if he does get hurt and he is 43 or if the Bucs hold him out of a meaningless Week 17 game with a playoff spot already cliched. But that’s beyond our control.
Jameis Winston threw for 33 touchdowns last season and if not for his turnovers, he could’ve easily thrown for 40. Brady is a Deadshot in the red zone and he has a pair of receivers who can get behind the opposing defense. I don’t think that 31 is too high. I think it’s low given he will be playing under Bruce Arians.
Prediction: Over 30.5
With Brady officially in Tampa Bay, our final prop bet for this article will be about which quarterback replaces him in Boston. However, the Patriots have been very secretive about their prospects.
New England is expected to draft a quarterback with its first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. That’s because they only have two quarterbacks in their 90-man roster. New England only has Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer in its lineup after releasing Cody Kessler. Stidham is currently the prospective starter and Hoyer as his backup. That’s the reason why Stidham is the betting favorite to land the job at -200.
Jameis Winston is next in the odds board but the former Tampa Bay QB isn’t about to swap teams with the man who replaced him. According to a report from the NFL, a high-ranking official from the Patriots said that New England is “unlikely” to target Winston.
Bryan Hoyer was signed to a one-year deal worth only $1M. According to reports, Hoyer agreed to this small deal for a chance to start for the team that drafted him in 2009. But this is his third stint with New England and he may be more of a backup than a starter again this year.
Cam Newton is third in the odds board but he too is unlikely to be the next New England QB. A former Patriots exec believes that Newton and Bill Belichick would not co-exist in one team. Newton was released by the Carolina Panthers last month but there seems to be no interest from the Patriots.
Prediction: I don’t think Jarrett Stidham is ready but I guess that he will start in Week 1 but I don’t think he will finish the season as the starter.
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