The Portland Trail Blazers visit the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on Tuesday night in a battle between the no. 2 and no. 3 teams in the Northwest Division.
Both these teams currently occupy playoff spots with the Blazers two games ahead of Denver in the standings. Both these two teams also head to this game coming off a loss, with Portland dropping back-to-back games and Denver with three defeats in their last four assignments. This is the first meeting between these two squads this season.
The Blazers are 18-12 on the season and they are currently in second place in the Northwest Division. Portland is also 5th in the Western Conference team standings and is just three games behind the second-seeded L.A. Clippers. The Blazers head to this game having lost their last two games after a six-game winning streak.
In their last game played on Monday night, Portland scored just 100 points and lost to the Phoenix Suns by 32 points. Damian Lillard scored “only” 24 points on 9-17 shooting including 1-7 from deep. Nassir Little added 18 points off the bench while Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony added 11 and 10 points, respectively.
Portland is the 3rd highest-scoring team in the league at 115.7 points per game this season. They are 13th in rebounding at 44.4 boards grabbed per contest but last in passing at 20.0 assists per game. The Blazers also have the 5th worst scoring defense in the league at 115.2 points per game allowed.
The Denver Nuggets have a 16-14 record and they are in 3rd place in the Northwest Division, two games behind no. 2 Portland. The Nuggets are 7th in the Western Conference team standings and are four games off the 4th seed. Denver is just 4-6 in their last 10 games played and they have won just once in their last four games played.
In their last game, the Nuggets lost to the Atlanta Hawks, 123-115. Jamal Murray followed up his 50-point game with 30 on the night but Nikola Jokic shot just 5-15 for 15 points. Facundo Campazzo added 16 points and Monte Morris had 15, both off the bench. However, Michael Porter Jr. took just seven shots and scored seven points.
Denver is tied for the 4th highest scoring average in the league at 115.5 points per game scored this season. They are 14th in scoring defense at 111.8 points per game allowed and rank 7th in passing at 26.5 assists per game. The Nuggets rank 22nd in rebounding at 43.5 boards grabbed per contest.
Portland is 6-2 SU in their eight games played. The Blazers are 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road. Denver is 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 5-1 SU in their last six games played. Head to head, these teams have split their last 10 meetings but Denver has won two out of the last three. The Nuggets are also 9-3 SU in their last dozen home games against the Blazers
The Blazers are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 32-point drubbing against the Suns in Phoenix. The Blazers shot just 12-39 from deep against the Suns1 and 19-55 against the Wizards and lost both games. However, this is a team that is ranked 5th overall in three-point accuracy this season at 38.8%.
Denver has split its last eight games and has lost three out of its last four games played. They are just 8-6 SU in 14 home games played this season but have won their last three at the Pepsi Center. Jokic is averaging just 15.5 points per game in his last two outings while MPJ has been held to 10 or fewer points in three of his last five outings.
Portland is playing the second of a back-to-back schedule here and coming off a 32-point loss so I won’t blame you if you won’t gamble on the Blazers. However, remember that this was a team that won six in a row before suffering back-to-back losses. Denver has been worse lately at just 4-6 in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets have not been a standout at home this season and are also without Millsap and Harris. I like the plus money on Portland.
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers +280
Portland is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played. The Blazers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played on the road, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as the betting underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as the road underdog, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Denver is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 6-8 ATS in 24 home games played this season, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as betting favorites, and 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday games. Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Blazers.
Portland has dropped back-to-back games and their defense has looked bad in both losses, giving up at least 118 points. They are still banged up and playing without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum, and Zach Collins. Denver has dropped three of four but all were on the road. The Nuggets have won their last three at home and are outsourcing their opponents at the Pepsi Center by 5.3 points per game. I like the Nuggets to win but I think any spread above five would be tough to cover with Denver also missing both Gary Harris and Paul Millsap who combine for 20 points per game this season. I’ll take the plus points with Portland.
Prediction: Blazers +8
The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by Portland. The over is 7-2 in their last nine games played on the road, and 7-2 in their last nine games against the Northwest Division. The Blazers have seen the total go over in each of their last seven games as the betting underdog. The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 16 games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go over in 7 out of their last nine games against the Western Conference. The over is also 5-1 in their last six Tuesday games, and 9-2 in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning SU record. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Portland ranks 25th in the league in scoring defense at 115.2 points per game allowed. The Nuggets are 14th in that department but have conceded an average of 117 points per game in their last four outings. Both teams are missing starters and key players but with these teams having leaky defenses this season, I like these teams to hit the over in a game that will be won by the team that scores more.
Prediction: Over 231
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