James Parker, June 6, 2018

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Week 4 of Stage 4 of the Overwatch League is starting today with 3 interesting matches that offer several Overwatch betting opportunities. This article analyzes these matches but first, let’s have a look at what the teams have done so far in this stage.

Standings Table

• 1^st place: Los Angeles Valiant (6 W – 0 L)
• 2^nd place: New York Excelsior (5 W – 1 L)
• 3^rd place: Los Angeles Gladiators (5 W – 1 L)
• 4^th place: San Francisco Shock (4 W – 2 L)
• 5^th place: Houston Outlaws (4 W – 2 L)
• 6^th place: Dallas Fuel (4 W – 2 L)
• 7^th place: Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 3 L)
• 8^th place: London Spitfire (3 W – 3 L)
• 9^th place: Seoul Dynasty (2 W – 4 L)
• 10^th place: Boston Uprising (0 W – 6 L)
• 11^th place: Florida Mayhem (0 W – 6 L)
• 12^th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 6 L)

Betting Predictions

Seoul Dynasty (2 W – 4 L) vs. Boston Uprising (0 W – 6 L)

Match date: June 6^th

Seoul Dynasty hasn’t done too well in Stage 4, winning just a third of its matches and against completely irrelevant opponents: Florida Mayhem and Shanghai Dragons. These results don’t tell the whole story though. Throughout the entire duration of the Overwatch League, Seoul Dynasty has been one of the fairly strong teams, finishing Stage 1, 2 and 3 in 5^th (7 W – 3 L), 4^th (7 W – 3 L) and 7^th (5 W – 5 L) place respectively. In Stage 4, Dynasty lost very close matches against strong opponents such as Los Angeles Valiant (2 – 3) and London Spitfire (2 – 3). These close but unfortunate results are a testament to Seoul Dynasty’s strength and ability to hold its own against almost any opponent.

Boston Uprising has suffered the most shocking drop imaginable in the last 4 weeks, going from a 10 W – 0 L record in Stage 3 to a current 0 W – 6 L record in Stage 4. I’m not sure how that was even possible for a team that seemed unstoppable for the entire duration of Stage 3, but apparently, the loss of its head coach has played a significant role in this. For the time being, Boston Uprising is in complete free fall and I don’t think they’ve hit the bottom yet. The madness is very likely to continue until a weak enough opponent is found.

Head to head statistics as well as overall performance throughout the OWL isn’t particularly relevant in this case, because Uprising’s terrible recent form clearly indicates that the current version of this team has little to do with its previous versions.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at 1.56 – 2.45 in favor of Seoul Dynasty, clearly expecting a victory in its favor but still giving Uprising a lot of respect. Personally, I’m not sure why the odds are so high on Dynasty’s side, given the fact that Boston Uprising is clearly in the dumpster right now. But in any case, these odds create a perfect Overwatch betting opportunity.

Betting prediction: Seoul Dynasty to win.

Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 6 L) vs. Florida Mayhem (0 W – 6 L)

Match date: June 6^th

With every passing week, Shanghai Dragons improves its all-time record. And not just for Overwatch, but the entire esports industry. This team has lost its first and last 36 matches, getting 0 wins so far in the Overwatch League and representing the perfect cash cow for any person with an interest in Overwatch betting. Whatever the odds may be, that is basically free money to be made whenever you’re betting against Shanghai Dragons in a match.

Apart from Dragons, Florida Mayhem is probably the second weakest team in OWL. But even with its abysmal record of 6 W – 30 L, Mayhem is still much stronger than its opponent. All of the statistics clearly show that Mayhem has at least a 90% chance of winning this match.

Bovada puts the odds at 3.65 – 1.28 in favor of Florida Mayhem. All things considered, a 28% profit for whatever you put in the middle is a very generous return at this probability of success.

Betting prediction: Florida Mayhem to win.

Dallas Fuel (4 W – 2 L) vs. Houston Outlaws (4 W – 2 L)

Match date: June 6^th

Dallas Fuel seems to have resurrected its roster and playstyle and has performed really well so far in Stage 4, winning against tough opponents such as London Spitfire and Philadelphia Fusion and being ranked 4^th – 6^th in the standings table. Compare that to its 1 W – 9 L Stage 3 performance and you can’t help but be amazed at how much a team can improve in such a short period of time. Fuel’s two losses came against Los Angeles Gladiators and San Francisco Shock, both of them strong teams.

Houston Outlaws has had a very easy road so far in Stage 4, so its 4 W – 2 L record is quite deceptive. Of those 4 victories, 3 came against “dead” opponents: Boston Uprising, Shanghai Dragons and Florida Mayhem. All of these teams are currently on a 0 W – 6 L record in Stage 4. The only relevant victory for Outlaws came versus London Spitfire (score 4 – 0). The team also lost 2 matches: one against Los Angeles Gladiators and one against San Francisco Shock, the same two teams that defeated Dallas Fuel in this stage.

Head to head results and overall performance statistics indicate that Houston Outlaws is the stronger of these two teams. However, Dallas Fuel’s performance in Stage 4 points in a different direction. And I honestly believe this team can beat Houston Outlaws in its current form.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at 1.80 – 2.00 in favor of Dallas Fuel, regarding it to be slightly better than its opponent. This assessment is pretty much on point, except that Fuel is actually much stronger than people perceive. At these odds, a bet on Dallas Fuel is a great choice.

Betting prediction: Dallas Fuel to win.