The St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies open a four-game set at Coors Field on Thursday.
St. Louis has lost just once in their last five games and heads to Coors Field with three consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Colorado is just 4-3 in their last seven games played but are coming off a 3-0 sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, including two shutout games pitched.
The Cardinals lead their season series 3-0 but all three games were played in St. Louis.
St. Louis has won three in a row and four out of their last five after a five-game losing streak. They enter this game ranked third in the NL Central race at 40-41 and 8.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the second wild card spot. The Cardinals swept the Diamondbacks in their last series, winning 7-4 in Game 3 on Wednesday.
Kwan Hyun Kim pitched five solid innings and helped himself with a two-run double as he picked up his first win in his last 11 starts. Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill each had a double and single while Yadier Molina had a pair of hits. All three players drove in a run for the Cardinals.
Adam Wainwright is expected to make his 16th start for St. Louis on Thursday. He enters the game with a record of 6-5 and an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.122. Wainwright has walked 26 batters and struck out 92 in 92.2 innings of pitch work. He picked up a win in his last start, allowing one run on six hits in six innings pitched against the Pirates last Saturday.
The Rockies also enter this series with a three-game winning streak. Colorado swept the Pittsburgh Pirates in their last series 3-0, holding them scoreless in the first two games of the series and allowing just two in the series finale. They are currently 4th in the NL West with a 34-47 record and are a far 14.5 games behind the Padres for the second wild card spot in the NL.
In their last game, Jon Gray tossed six solid innings while Garrett Hampson had four hits for the Rockies. C.J. Cron led off the 4th inning with his 11th home run of the season while the team scored another two runs in the fifth against starter Chad Kuhl. With the win, the Rockies improved to 28-16 at home this season.
Antonio Senzaleta will be making his 16th start of the season. Senzaleta has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.438. He has conceded 20 walks and 55 strikeouts in 81.1 innings of pitch work. In his last start, Zenzaleta did not factor in the decision after pitching five innings and giving up three runs on seven hits. He is 2-3 with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.245 at Coors Field this season.
St. Louis is 4-1 in their last five games played. However, the Cardinals are just 1-9 in their last 10 games played at home. They are 6-15 in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter, 2-6 in their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 1-6 in their last seven road games against an opponent with a losing record.
Colorado is 12-2 in their last 14 home games against a right-handed starter. The Rockies are 5-1 in their last six games as home underdogs, 14-3 in their last 17 home games against an opponent with a losing record, 6-2 in their last eight games after a win, and 20-8 in their last 28 home games.
The Cardinals are one of the least offensively productive teams in the league this season. They rank in the bottom 10 in runs, team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging.
The Rockies rank in the bottom 5 in staff ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, batting average against, and walks as of Wednesday’s games. However, St. Louis could be in for a surprise as Antonio Senzatela has pitched well at Coors Field, allowing just a total of seven runs in his last four home starts.
Wainwright has pitched well above his value but he should find trouble against a Colorado team that leads the Majors with an average of 5.79 runs per game at home this season. I won’t blame you if you take the Cardinals. But I like the value of the underdogs here.
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The under is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last seven games after a win. The total has gone under in five out of their last six Thursday games. The under is also 6-2 in their last eight July games, 8-2 when the total is set at 11 or higher, and 3-1-2 in their last six games played overall.
The total has gone under in each of Colorado’s last four games played. The under is also 4-0 in their last four games played on grass, 6-1 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a losing record, 4-1 in their last five games against the National League, and 4-1 in their last five Game 1 of a series.
Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last six games between these two teams.
Antonio Senzatela has pitched well at home this season while Wainwright is also throwing his best stuff even at the age of 39. It’s always tough going with the under when in Coors Field. But there’s nothing really very impressive about both lineups.
The Cardinals are ranked 26th in the majors in scoring at just 3.90 runs per game. The Rockies meanwhile are ranked 15th at 4.33 runs per game although they are better at home at 5.79. These teams have combined to score an average of 8.60 runs in their last 10 head to head meetings.
I expect both starters to do well with Wainwright turning in another solid outing and Senzatela continuing his brilliance at home. I think the total is inflated and these teams will come up short of 11.5. Give me the under.
Prediction: Under 11
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