The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center on Monday night.
These teams are trending in opposite directions right now with the Thunder losing eight out of their last 10 games played and Dallas winners of eight out of their last nine contests.
OKC is currently 14-28 on the season and they have the second-worst record in the West although they are just three games behind 10th seeded Portland. Dallas is the current 5th seed in the West with their 24-19 record. If the playoffs began today, Dallas would have outright entry to the postseason and face the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round.
The Thunder suffered their sixth loss in their last seven games with a 107-102 defeat to the Cavaliers in OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had another big game with 21 points and 7 assists Darius Bazley added 17 points off the bench while Lou Dort also contributed 17 points in the losing effort.
OKC is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA at 100.8 points per game this season. The Thunder are 7th in rebounding at 45.9 boards grabbed per contest and are also dead-last in passing at 21.0 assists per game. OKC is 13th in the NBA in scoring defense at 107.7 points per game allowed.
Kristaps Porzingis played his first game in two weeks and immediately made a difference for the Mavs as the Latvian Unicorn scored 19 points and grabbed 7 rebounds. As usual, Luka Doncic was spectacular with 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists while Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 17 off the bench and Jalen Brunson added 19 points on 8-11 shooting.
Dallas is 25th in the league in scoring at 105.5 points per game this season. The Mavs are 21st in rebounding at 43.9 boards grabbed per contest. They are also 16th in passing at 26.8 assists per game. Dallas is 3rd overall in scoring defense at 102.7 points per game allowed.
Oklahoma City is 1-6 SU in their last seven games played. The Thunder are 6-14 SU in 20 road games played this season. Dallas is 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. The Mavericks are 12-8 SU in 20 home games played this season, and 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Western Conference.
Head to head, Dallas Mavericks are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are in a rebuild and although they have been excellent against the spread, they have one of the worst records in the league right now at 14-28. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the lone bright spot on offense but the Thunder have a hard-working defense that keeps them in ball games.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have looked like a different team since Luka Doncic came back from COVID-19 protocols. Dallas also got back Kristaps Porzingis and when this team is complete, we know what they can be capable of doing. The Mavs recently beat Golden State, Chicago, and Memphis, showing what they can do when they have it going for them. No way the Thunder can match Dallas on offense.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played. OKC is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Southwest Division, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day rest, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight-up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning home record, 21-6-1 in their last 28 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Northwest Division, 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day rest, 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against an opponent with a losing road record, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games played at home.
Head to head, the Mavs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played against the Thunder. Dallas is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against OKC.
The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 27-14-1 ATS this season. However, OKC seems to be having trouble against the Mavs, especially in Dallas where they have failed to cover the betting spread in seven straight games.
Dallas has won eight out of its last nine games played and they have won seven of those games by double digits. The Mavericks are also 7-2 ATS during that stretch and are coming off a game where they covered the 11.5 spread against the Magic.
This is a matchup that the Mavs have dominated and that should continue with Dallas on a roll right now.
Prediction: Mavericks -11
The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Thunder. The over is 4-1 in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-2 in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
The total has gone under in nine out of the last 10 games played by the Mavericks The under is 5-0 in their last five home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 10-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 6-1 in their last seven games after an ATS win, 6-1 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win, 20-7 when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games.
The Thunder are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA at 100.8 points per game this season but are a respectable 13th in scoring defense at 107.7 points per game allowed.
Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has been excellent during their current winning run, allowing their opponent to score less than 100 points in seven out of their last nine games played and no more than 108 in their last eight. Dallas also plays with a deliberate style and is 29th in the league in pace.
These teams have combined to score just 204.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. This one should be no different.
Prediction: Under 208.5
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