The Dallas Mavericks look to regain their winning ways as they test the Miami Heat at the FTX Arena in South Florida on Tuesday night.
Dallas is 33-24 SU on the season and they are currently second in the Southwest Division team standings, but 6.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavs are 5th in the Western Conference and they are one game ahead of the 6th seeded Denver Nuggets. They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played but are coming off a 99-97 loss to the L.A. Clippers.
Miami is 37-20 SU on the season and they are on top of the Southeast Division, 8.5 games ahead of the Charlotte Hornets. The Heat are also the top seed in the Eastern Conference and they are just one-half game ahead of the Chicago Bulls. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played and they head to this matchup with a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played.
Dallas dropped a close 99-97 contest against the L.A. Clippers in their last outing. Luka Doncic had another monster game with 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists but it was not enough to give the Mavs the dub. Jalen Brunson also scored 22 points while Reggie Bullock made 5 three-pointers and finished with 17 points. However, no other Maverick scored more than 6 points in the game.
The Mavericks rank 24th in the league in scoring at 106.3 points per game. They are 22nd in rebounding at 43.8 boards grabbed per contest and are 7th in passing at 23.7 assists per game. Dallas has the second-best scoring defense in the league at 103.2 points per game allowed this season.
Miami survived a big game by Kyrie Irving to beat the Nets 115-111 in their last game. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 19 points and 14 rebounds while Duncan Robinson added 17 points on 5-8 three-point shooting. Kyle Lowry also contributed 13 points and 6 assists while Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro combined for 26 points. Butler and Herro have been declared out of this game.
The Heat are 17th in the NBA in scoring at 109.1 points per game this season. They are 18th in rebounding at 44.6 boards collared per contest. Miami is also ranked 6th in passing at 25.8 assists per game and they also have the league’s 5th best scoring defense at 104.4 points per game conceded this season.
The Mavs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Dallas is 13-13 SU in 26 road games played this season. The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last seven games played. Miami is 19-6 SU in their last 25 games played at home.
Head to head, the Heat are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games against the Mavericks. Miami is also 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Dallas.
The Heat have ruled out Herro and Butler for this game. But the Mavs will also be without Tim Hardaway Jr. and Marquese Chriss. Both teams head to this game with good momentum and although Dallas is the team with fewer injuries, Miami is playing at home where they have been rock-solid all year.
Coach Spo has taught his boys to play with adversity and no matter who’s present and absent, this is a Miami team that comes to play. This is the best team in the East and they win at home by an average winning margin of 6.5 points per game while shooting 47% from the floor. I’ll take the short-handed Heat in this matchup.
Prediction: Miami Heat
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Mavs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after an ATS loss, and 43-20-1 ATS in their last 64 road games against an opponent with a winning home record.
Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Western Conference, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Southwest Division, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when playing on 2 days rest, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.
Head to head, the Heat are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games played against the Mavericks. Miami is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games against Dallas.
The betting line has been adjusted from 4.5 to 2.5 after Miami ruled out both Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. That said, Miami at -4.5 in this game wouldn’t have been a value bet but at -2.5, we’re laying just two points on the best team in the East against the Mavericks and this is a Miami team that has won its home games by more than 5 points per game this season.
Both teams have excellent defenses with Dallas maybe a little better. But when it comes to putting up points, the Mavs are just 24th in the league in that department, allowing the short-handed Heat to win this game. Miami has been very good at home this season and are 14-11 ATS at home. Dallas is also a good 14-12 ATS on the road this season but again, these are just 2.5 points against a Miami team that is the best in the East. I’ll take the Heat to cover this spread which is just one bucket.
Prediction: Heat -3.5
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Mavs. The over, however, is 4-2 in their last six road games. The over is also 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning straight-up record, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 8-3 in their last 11 Tuesday games.
The total has gone over in 9 out of the last 12 games played by the Heat. The over is 5-0 in their last five home games, 6-1 in their last seven Tuesday games, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss, 6-2 in their last eight games after a straight-up win, 8-3 in their last 11 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, and 5-2 in their last seven games when playing on 2 days rest.
Head to head, the total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.
These two teams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to scoring points and they both have Top 5 scoring defenses. However, the Heat have scored 112 or more points four times in their last five games played while Dallas has hit 112 or more five times in their last nine games played.
The Heat are the best three-point shooting team in the league at 37.6% so they have the tendency to score more points per possession than the other teams. Dallas has seen the total go over in four out of their last six games on the road.
Miami is missing key players in this game but the total is just 211.5 points and both teams are capable of putting up points in a hurry, regardless of who’s on the floor. Give me these teams to hit this modest total.
Prediction: Over 208
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