The no. 8 ranked Villanova Wildcats head to the XL Center in Harford, Connecticut to take on the UConn Huskies on Tuesday at 8:00 PM E.T.
Villanova enters this game with a 21-6 SU overall record and a 14-3 SU conference mark. The Wildcats are just one-half game behind Providence in the Big East conference standings. They have won eight out of their last nine games including an 85-74 win over UConn last February 5th.
Connecticut is 19-7 SU on the season and they are 10-5 SU in the Big East Conference, +2.5 games behind Providence and two games behind Villanova. They have won 9 out of their last 12 games and are currently on a three-game winning streak. In their last game, the Huskies defeated Xavier 72-61. UConn is currently the no. 21 ranked team in the nation.
The Wildcats have shot up the rankings, mainly due to their upset win over then no. 8 Providence. Villanova is playing its best basketball right now and they still have a shot at getting that no. 2 seed if they can finish the season strong.
Villanova ranks 6th in offensive efficiency although they are ranked 123rd in the nation in scoring at 73.7 points per game. The Wildcats are the best free-throw shooting team in college basketball at 82.4% from the line. On defense, they are ranked 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are allowing just 63.1 points per game this season.
Collin Gillespie leads Villanova with 16.6 points and 2.9 assists per game while shooting 45% from the field. Eric Dixon is shooting 51.5% from the floor while averaging 9.9 points per game for the Wildcats while Justin Moore is the team’s second-leading scorer at 15.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game.
The Huskies have looked nearly unstoppable at the XL Center this season, even pulling off an upset over the Auburn Tigers earlier this year. UConn will be eyeing another big home win on Tuesday night and they will carry the momentum of a three-game winning streak to this contest.
UConn ranks 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are the no. 60 highest-scoring team in the nation at 76.5 points per game. The Huskies are also 14th in rebounding at 41.5 boards grabbed per contest and are conceding just 65.1 points per game this season while holding opponents to 39.6% FG shooting.
R.J. Cole is UConn’s top scorer and passer at 16.2 points and 4.2 assists per game in 33.1 minutes of playing time per outing. Adama Sanogo is scoring 15.1 points per game while grabbing a team-high 8.6 rebounds per contest. Meanwhile, Tyrese Martin is the third double-digit scorer at 13.6 points per game while also grabbing 7.0 rebounds per contest.
The Wildcats are 5-0 SU in their last five games played. Villanova is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played on the road. The Huskies are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. UConn is 15-2 SU in their last 17 games played at home.
Head to head, the Villanova is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against UConn and has won each of their last five meetings.
Villanova is on a roll right now and they’re not just relying on the three-point shot like they normally do, although they are still getting them. The Wildcats are the no. 1 team in the nation at the foul line and are making 9 three-point baskets per game. That should be a problem for a UConn team that doesn’t shoot too many three-pointers and commits too many fouls per game.
However, Villanova doesn’t have a strong inside presence and they are going to get beaten up on the boards by the 14th best rebounding team in the nation. Although they were outrebounded by Villanova during the February 5 meeting, UConn bounced back by grabbing 43 boards against a Marquette team that Nova couldn’t beat.
UConn is also 12-2 SU at home and their two losses were in-game where they shot 32% or worse from the field. It’s not that they are unbeatable at home, but for as long as they don’t struggle to shoot, they should be able to pull off this victory against Villanova.
Prediction: UConn Huskies
Villanova is 14-12-1 ATS in 27 games played this season. The Wildcats are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games played on the road, 1-5 ATS in their last six games played after a straight up win, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games after an SU victory. However, Nova is 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games played and 44-21-2 ATS in their last 67 games after an ATS loss.
UConn is just 12-14 ATS in 26 games played this season. The Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the Big East conference, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a straight up win. However, UConn is also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games, and 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 home games against an opponent with a road winning percentage better than .600.
Head to head, the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
It’s hard to think that the no. 8 ranked team in the nation in Villanova is an underdog against UConn right now and that makes it harder to pick against them. However, the Huskies are in a very good position to pull off the win here.
Not only has UConn been impressive at home this season, but Villanova could very well be without their top scorer in this game. If Gillespie gets a positive medical report, then the betting action could sway back to the Wildcats’ favor but until then, they will need all their weapons to come out firing against this tough UConn team.
If Gillespie is unable to play or isn’t 100% here, it’s a no-brainer we pick the Huskies and give away 2.5 points.
Prediction: UConn Huskies -2
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by Villanova. The over is 4-2 in their last six games against the Big East conference, 5-2 in their last seven February games, 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS loss, 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 6-2 in their last eight road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 6-2 in their last eight road games overall.
The total has gone over 13 out of the last 20 games played by the Huskies. The over is also 6-1 in their last seven Tuesday games, 7-1 in their last eight home games against an opponent with a road winning percentage better than .600, 5-1 in their last six games after an ATS win, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 25-11 in their last 36 games played at home.
UConn is the 60th top-scoring team in the nation at 76.5 points per game this season. Meanwhile, Villanova is 123rd in that department but they put up 73.6 points per game. If you consider their season scoring averages, this game’s total should very well in be the 140+ range.
These teams have combined to score an average of 137.9 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings including 159 in their most recent matchup just last February 5th.
The Wildcats have scored 73 or more points 8 times in their last 10 games played while conceding 67 points or more six times in their last nine games played. On the other hand, the Huskies have scored 68 or more points seven times in their last 10 games played while allowing giving up 65 or more points five times in their last nine assignments. I like these teams to hit the over.
Prediction: Over 135
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