Blake Daniels, May 30, 2022

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The Washington Nationals and New York Mets open a three-game set on Monday at CitiField in a matchup between National League East teams.

Washington is 18-31 on the season and they are next to last in the National League and are at the bottom of the NL East at 14 games behind the Mets. Washington is 5-5 in its last 10 games played but won their recent set against the Colorado Rockies 3-1.

New York is the second-best team in the National League at 32-17 or just two games behind the World Series betting favorites Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets are on top of the NL East and lead their division by 8.5 games over the defending World Series champions Atlanta Braves. New York is 7-3 in their last 10 games played and has won their last three games played.

These two teams split their first series while the Mets won the second one.

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are off to a start they would rather forget about. At 18-31, they have fallen 14 games behind the Mets in the NL East. The good thing for them is that we are not yet half the season so there are still more than enough games left to turn things around. However, the National have to act fast.

First baseman Josh Bell leads Washington with a .786 OPS and a batting average of .289. Bell has four home runs and 25 RBIs on the season. Meanwhile, Juan Soto leads the team with 9 home runs while also totaling 16 RBIs on the season. DH Nelson Cruz leads the team with 27 RBIs with four home runs and a batting average of .238.

Right-hander Erick Fedde will start for the Nationals in this series opener. The 29-year-old from Las Vegas, Nevada is 3-3 with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.38 in nine games started this season. Fedde has pitched in a total of 45.2 innings and has conceded 19 runs on 41 hits with 5 home runs, 42 strikeouts, and 22 walks.

Fedde got the win in his last start as the Nationals defeated the Dodgers 1-0. In that game, he threw six scoreless innings and allowed only four hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The Nationals are 3-2 in his last five starts.

New York Mets

The Mets are off to a strong start to the season as they have jumped to the top of the NL East and have taken an 8.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves. New York also has the second-best record in the NL and is just two games off the LA Dodgers’ pace. Right now, they are playing very well offensively and will need to continue to do so if they want to sustain their pace.

Jeff McNeil leads the Mets with a batting average of .317 while also having an OBP of .372 and SLG of .463. Pete Alonso leads the team with 12 home runs and 46 RBIs. Alonso is batting at a solid .286 rate. Francisco Lindor has 38 RBIs and 8 home runs while Starling Marte has 25 RBIs on the season.

Starting for the Mets on Monday will be left-hander David Peterson. The 26-year-old from Denver, Colorado is 2-0 in four starts this season with an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 1.0. He has pitched in a total of 25.0 innings and has allowed seven runs on 16 hits with 22 strikeouts and 9 walks.

Peterson earned his second win in his most recent start as the Mets blew out the San Francisco Giants 13-3. In that game, Peterson threw for six innings and allowed two runs on three hits with one home run conceded. The Mets are 4-0 in his last four starts.

Who Wins?

The Nationals are 5-13 in their last 18 head-to-head meetings against the Mets. Washington is also 1-6 in their last seven games played in New York.

The Washington Nationals are:

• 34-72 in their last 106 games played overall.
• 21-43 in their last 64 road games.
• 14-39 in their last 53 vs. National League East.
• Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 Game 1s of a series.
• Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• Nationals are 34-72 in their last 106 games on grass.
• Nationals are 9-19 in their last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Nationals are 16-35 in their last 51 games against a left-handed starter.
• Nationals are 10-22 in their last 32 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Nationals are 20-45 in their last 65 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
• Nationals are 7-16 in their last 23 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 Monday games.
• Nationals are 32-76 in their last 108 games as an underdog.
• Nationals are 21-51 in their last 72 against a team with a winning record.
• Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 games as a road underdog.

The New York Mets are:

• 7-3 in their last 10 games played overall.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
• 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• 5-1 in their last 6 against the National League East.
• 14-3 in their last 17 Game 1s of a series.
• 17-4 in their last 21 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 21-6 in their last 27 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 20-6 in their last 26 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 23-8 in their last 31 games against a right-handed starter.
• 5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
• 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass.
• 46-22 in their last 68 games as a home favorite.
• The Mets are 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.

These teams are on the opposite ends of the pole in the team standings. The Mets are the second-best team in the National League while the Nationals are next to last and struggling in the first quarter of the 2022 MLB season.

The Nationals rank 5th in team batting percentage but are just 21st in runs scored per game this season. That’s not going to work against a Mets team that is second overall in team batting percentage and third in runs per game scored. Washington is going to put runners on base but will not be able to drive enough runs to outscore the Mets in this game.

Peterson is coming off an excellent start against the Dodgers and I expect him to do well in this matchup. He is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.89 in his two home starts this season. Meanwhile, Fedde has been throwing well too as of late and is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.99 in four road starts this season.

But while the starter matchup looks competitive, the difference in bullpen quality is significant. Neither are top-notch but the Mets’ relievers rank 12th in bullpen ERA at 3.55 while the Nationals are just 21st in reliever ERA at 3.92. Once the starters get their rest here, the Mets are going to break the game open. On average, the Mets are scoring 2.6 more runs per game than the Nationals in their respective last seven games played. Give me the Mets to outscore the Nationals here.

Prediction: New York Mets

Nationals vs Mets Over/Under Betting Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Washington Nationals over/under trends:

• Over is 6-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 games played overall.
• Over is 14-6-3 in the Nationals’ last 23 road games.
• Over is 9-2-2 in the Nationals’ last 13 road games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
• Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 games played on grass.
• Over is 21-7-1 in the Nationals’ last 29 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Over is 12-4-2 in the Nationals’ last 18 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 14-6-2 in the Nationals’ last 22 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 7-2 in the Nationals’ last 9 road games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
• Under is 11-4-2 in the Nationals’ last 17 games versus a left-handed starter.
• Under is 7-3 in the Nationals’ last 10 games played against teams from the National League East.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• Over is 5-0 in the Mets’ last 5 games played overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 Monday games.
• Over is 5-0 in the Mets’ last 5 games played on grass.
• Over is 5-0 in the Mets’ last five games against the National League.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games versus. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 home games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.5 or lower.
• Over is 5-0 in the Mets’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 home games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
• Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games against a team with a winning % below .400.

These teams have hit the over in one of their last five head-to-head meetings but remember that these teams have combined to score an average of 8.3 runs per game which is just a shade under the posted total for Monday’s game which is 8.5 so these teams are right within that scoring range.

The Nationals have one of the worst defenses in the league. Washington is currently ranked 28th overall in runs per game allowed and Erick Fedde has been very hittable this season and his 1.38 WHIP says that he is going to allow New York hitters to reach base safely all game long.

Meanwhile, the Mets are third in the league in runs scored per game and rank second overall in team batting average. With the kind of firepower they pack, they should be able to produce several big scoring innings in this game.

Also, Washington is 5th in team batting average so that should further help push the total score to over 8.5 runs.

Prediction: Over 8.5