Blake Daniels, June 27, 2022

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The Boston Red Sox head north to face the Toronto Blue Jays in a showdown at Rodgers Centre.

Boston enters this series with a 42-31 record overall and after a slow start to the season, they have picked up the pace. The Red Sox have won 18 out of their last 22 games played, including their last seven. Boston is, however, still 11 games behind the New York Yankees in the battle for the AL East Division.

Toronto is 40-32 on the season and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games including their last two against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Blue Jays are currently 4th in the AL East and are 12.5 games off the division-leading Yankees.

The Red Sox are 22-15 away from home while the Blue Jays are 21-14 at Rodgers Centre this season. These teams have played seven times this season with the Blue Jays winning five out of those seven head-to-head matchups.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox lost 19 out of their first 29 games of the season but have come on strong as of late. Boston had a six-game winning streak in May, a seven-game win streak earlier this month, and heads to this series with another seven-game winning streak. The Red Sox swept the Tigers and Guardians in their last two series’ played.

Starting for the Red Sox in this series opener is Connor Seabold who has yet to start a game in the majors this season and who only has one career start in the big league. Seabold was called up from Triple A-Worcester where he had 11 starts and posted an ERA of 2.09 and WHIP of 1.00 in a total of 51.2 innings pitched.

Boston’s .261 team batting average is the best in the majors. They are led by third baseman Rafael Devers who has 93 hits with 44 RBIs and 17 home runs. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has 86 hits while J.D. Martinez has 78. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 50 RBIs while also hitting 11 home runs on the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays went 12 games over the .500 mark last June 15th but have struggled with three wins in their last 10 games played. They head to this match-up having lost their last three series to the Yankees, White Sox, and Brewers all via 2-1 series score. Despite that, they are still 2.5 games up on Cleveland for the final AL wild-card spot.

Toronto will send Kevin Gausman to the top of the hill on Monday. The right-hander is 5-6 with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.28 in a total of 14 stars. Gausman has allowed 28 earned runs on 88 hits with 87 strikeouts and 13 walks in a total of 79.0 innings pitched this season.

Gausman allowed only two earned runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox in his last start. The Blue Jays lost the game 7-6 in 12 innings with Gausman not factoring in the decision. The Blue Jays are 2-6 in his last eight starts and winless in his most recent four mound appearances.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Betting Predictions

The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games played against the Blue Jays. Boston is also 1-4 SU in their last five games played in Toronto.

The Red Sox are:

• 20-6 in their last 26 games played overall.
• 16-5 in their last 21 road games.
• 16-5 in their last 21 Game 1s of a series.
• 18-6 in their last 24 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 20-8 in their last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
• 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team with a winning record.
• 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.
• 6-0 in their last 6 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 12-2 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 8-2 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 7-2 in their last 9 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• 4-10 in their last 14 against the American League East Division.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games on astroturf.

The Blue Jays are:

• 3-7 in their last 10 games played overall.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• 39-17 in their last 56 games following a loss.
• 9-4 in their last 13 Monday games.
• 38-17 in their last 55 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 17-8 in their last 25 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 2-5 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.
• 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-10 in their last 15 games against the American League Eastern Division.
• 29-35 in their last 64 games against the American League.
• 12-20 in their last 32 home games against the American League.

Sure, Gausman has a low ERA of 3.19 but he’s allowed an average of 7 hits in his last five starts and has not gotten the needed run support to win those games. The Blue Jays averaged only 3.75 runs per game in the four games he lost from his last five starts.

The Red Sox are bringing in a replacement pitcher to start this game. However, Seabold has looked good so far, even if it’s against Triple-A competition. Boston is also one of the hottest teams in the league with seven straight wins. They have scored five or more runs six times during that stretch, including four with at least six.

Gausman might outduel Seabold but the Boston bats should make up for the difference in the pitching department. Toronto’s inability to keep up with the red-hot Boston offense is going to cost them this game. I won’t blame you if you take the Blue Jays and the more experienced starter. However, at the price these teams are pegged at, I’d rather roll with Boston and the plus money.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in the last four meetings in Boston.

The Boston Red Sox over/under trends:

• Under is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 overall.
• Under is 5-2 in the Red Sox’s last 7 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last five games when playing as a betting underdog.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 11-4-4 in the Red Sox’s last 19 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 11-4 in the Red Sox’s last 15 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 8-3-3 in the Red Sox’s last 14 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 34-28-8 in the Red Sox’s last 70 games against the American League
• Under is 18-12-5 in the Red Sox’s last 35 road games against the American League.
• Under is 13-5-2 in the Red Sox’s last 20 vs. American League East.
• Under is 5-2-2 in the Red Sox’s last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 11 on astroturf.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 Monday games.
• Over is 7-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Toronto Blue Jays are:

• Over is 22-5 in the Blue Jays’ last 27 overall.
• Over is 12-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 13 home games.
• Over is 16-5-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 22 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 16-5 in the Blue Jays’ last 21 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 16-5-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 22 against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 16-5 in the Blue Jays’ last 21 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 games following a loss.
• Over is 5-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 5 Game 1s a series.
• Over is 7-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 6-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 12-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 13 on astroturf.
• Over is 6-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 7 against American League East.
• Over is 6-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record.

It’s hard not to trust these two offenses on Monday night. Toronto ranks 10th overall in runs scored while Boston is 7th in that department. The Red Sox lead the league in batting average while the Blue Jays are 4th. Both are also in the Top 10 in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Meanwhile, Gausman has allowed baserunners at a high rate lately while Seabold has not started a game in the majors this season. Given the starters, and the kind of offense these two teams are putting up this season, this should be a high-scoring game. Four out of Boston’s last seven games have hit a total of at least 9 runs while nine out of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games have seen a total of at least 9 runs.

Prediction: Over 9