Blake Daniels, July 12, 2022

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AL West Division rivals Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels begin a three-game series on Tuesday night at the Angel Stadium in Anaheim.

The first pitch is scheduled to be thrown at 9:38 PM EST with Houston right-hander Luis Garcia facing Noah Syndergaard.

The Astros are comfortably ahead of the AL West with their 56-29 record. Houston is currently 12 games better than second-place Seattle. Meanwhile, the Angels are next to last in the division with their 38-49 record. Los Angeles is currently 19 games behind the Astros and they look to start cutting that lead with games flying by fast.

The Astros swept the Angels during a three-game set at the start of the current month.

Houston Astros

Houston sits atop the American League along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and they are in cruise control in the AL West. The Astros won two of three games against the Oakland Athletics in their last series, including a 6-1 win to clinch the series on Monday night. Houston has not lost a series since June 10th and they are one of the favorites to win the 2022 World Series.

Luis Garcia will get the chance to open the series for Houston. The 25-year-old right-hander has posted a 7-5 record with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.09 in 15 starts this season. Garcia has conceded 35 earned runs on 68 hits with 87 strikeouts and 22 walks in a total of 82.2 innings pitched. In his last start, he allowed five earned runs on nine hits in 6.1 innings pitched and picked up the win over the Royals. The Astros have won in Garcia’s last four starts.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels’ superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are having excellent seasons. However, the two are not getting enough production from their supporting cast, forcing the Angels to struggle this season. Los Angeles has dropped eight out of their last nine games played and have scored one run or less in half of their last 10 games played.

Los Angeles will be sending Noah Syndergaard to start against the Astros on Tuesday. The 29-year-old right-hander is 5-7 with an ERA of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.17 in 13 starts this season. Syndergaard has pitched in a total of 70.1 innings and has allowed 30 earned runs on 66 hits with 55 strikeouts and 16 walks. He pitched in 5.0 innings and allowed two runs on five hits during a 2-1 loss to the Miami Marlins which was charged to him. L.A. is 1-5 in his last five starts.

Astros vs Angels Betting Prediction

The Astros are 50-23 in their last 73 games played against the Angels. Houston is also 37-18 in their last 55 games played at Angel Stadium.

The Astros are:

• 45-18 in their last 63 overall.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
• 48-18 in their last 66 games on grass.
• 38-14 in their last 52 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 21-7 in their last 28 versus the American League West Division.
• 6-2 in their last 8 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 6-2 in their last 8 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games opposite a team with a losing record.
• 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
• 6-1 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 11-1 in their last 12 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 66-27 in their last 93 games following an off day.
• 46-19 in their last 65 Game 1s of a series.
• 38-16 in their last 54 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 37-16 in their last 53 Tuesday games.
• 20-9 in their last 29 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 35-16 in their last 51 games against a right-handed starter.
• 35-16 in their last 51 games versus a team with a losing record.
• 55-27 in their last 82 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

The Angels are:

• 15-36 in their last 51 overall.
• 6-15 in their last 21 home games.
• 20-41 in their last 61 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 19-40 in their last 59 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 3-7 in their last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 15-36 in their last 51 games on grass.
• 3-8 in their last 11 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 7-19 in their last 26 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 9-26 in their last 35 games following a loss.
• 8-24 in their last 32 games opposite a right-handed starter.
• 4-12 in their last 16 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• 5-16 in their last 21 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-18 in their last 23 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-4 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• 3-13 in their last 16 Game 1s of a series.
• 3-13 in their last 16 games following an off day.1-5 in their last 6 against the American League West Division.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-9 in their last 10 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-10 in their last 11 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• 0-6 in their last 6 Tuesday games.

The Astros have long dominated this divisional matchup and these teams recently played a three-game set to start the current month and the Astros swept the Angels 3-0. Houston is also the much better team this season as they are among the top favorites to win the World Series.

Pitching-wise, Luis Garcia has been solid on the road this season with an ERA of 2.37 in seven starts away from home. Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard has been struggling as of late and has an ERA of 4.02 in his previous seven starts. Offensively, these two teams have been trending in opposite directions in their respective last six games played. The Astros are putting up 5.7 runs per game during that span while the Angels are scoring only 2.67 runs per game in the same period.

Houston has lost just twice in their last 10 games played while L.A. has won just twice in their previous 10 assignments I’m eating the chalk and going with the Astros for the win here.

Prediction: Houston Astros

Astros vs Angels Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last six meetings between these two teams. However, the under is 4-1 in their last five games played in Los Angeles.

Houston Astros over/under betting trends:

• Over is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 games following an off day.
• Over is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 games opposite a right-handed starter.
• Over is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Astros’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 7-1 in the Astros’ last 8 Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 games following a win.
• Under is 25-7-1 in the Astros’ last 33 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 22-8 in the Astros’ last 30 games against American League West.
• Under is 8-3-1 in the Astros’ last 12 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 18-7 in the Astros’ last 25 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Astros’ last 8 road games.
• Under is 20-8 in the Astros’ last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 26-11-1 in the Astros’ last 38 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 22-10 in the Astros’ last 32 road games versus a right-handed starter.

Los Angeles Angels over/under betting trends:

• Under is 17-6-3 in the Angels’ last 26 overall.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the Angels’ last 7 home games.
• Under is 17-6-3 in the Angels’ last 26 on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in the Angels’ last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-3-1 in the Angels’ last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Angels’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 10-3-3 in the Angels’ last 16 games following a loss.
• Under is 3-1-2 in the Angels’ last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 9-3-2 in the Angels’ last 14 against the American League West.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Angels’ last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Angels’ last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 8-2 in the Angels’ last 10 games following an off day.
• Under is 8-2-2 in the Angels’ last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 4-0 in the Angels’ last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Angels’ last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Angels’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Angels’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-1 in the Angels’ last 8 Games 1s of a series.
• Under is 5-1 in the Angels’ last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Angels’ last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

The Angels have seen the total hit the under in Syndergaard’s last five starts. Although he was touched up for two home runs in his last start against the Miami Marlins, Syndergaard has done a good job keeping the ball inside the ballpark this season. Because of that, the Astros won’t be able to have their big-scoring innings in this game.

Los Angeles is also struggling to score runs right now. They are scoring under 2.5 runs per game over their last 10 games and their offense looks like it could use the upcoming All-Star break to recharge.

With the Angels’ offensive struggles, Luis Garcia shouldn’t have any serious issues limiting Los Angeles. The Astros have gone under in eight of his last 11 starts and I expect him to have another good outing on the road on Tuesday night. I’ll take the under here.

Prediction: Under 8.5 runs