Blake Daniels, September 26, 2022

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The Baltimore Orioles head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox in a four-game set beginning on Monday night.

Baltimore’s playoff hopes continue to dwindle but mathematically, they are still in the postseason hunt. The Orioles are four games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final wild card spot with only 10 days to go in the regular season. The Orioles are just 4-6 in their last 10 games played and have dropped their last two.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are out of the postseason chase but they still have a chance to avoid a losing season. At 72-80, the Red Sox still have 10 games left to play. However, Boston is just 3-7 in their last 10 games played and they have lost their last five games played.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are having their best season in five years. However, the Orioles are still trying to enter the postseason via the backdoor and they need to win as many games as they can the rest of the way to give themselves a chance of catching up with the Brewers.

Pitching has been what has taken the Orioles to this spot. Last week, they nearly had back-to-back games where their starters had back-to-back complete games. Though they fell short by just ⅓ of an inning, this was a team that had not seen a complete game since May 2021.

Starting on Monday will be the pitcher who threw a complete game last week in Jordan Lyles. Lyles leads the Orioles with 11 wins and he looks to get over the .500 mark in wins against the Red Sox. Against Boston, he is 1-1 with an ERA of 8.00 while giving up 32 hits n 18 innings pitched against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are 8-games below the .500 mark with 10 days left in the regular season. That’s a far cry from the output of last season’s team which went all the way to the American League Championship Series.

Boston entered Sunday’s game against the New York Yankees with a four-game losing streak. They lost 2-0 in a rain-shortened game and were officially eliminated from the playoffs. Despite already out of the postseason hunt, the Red Sox might still want to salvage their season by finishing strong and avoiding a losing campaign.

On Monday, one of their top pitching prospects Connor Seabold will start against the Orioles. Seabold is 0-3 on the season with an ERA of 10.47. The right-hander has pitched in just 16.1 innings this season and has conceded 30 hits with 4 home runs allowed while striking out 6 and walking 7 hitters.

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction

Head to head, the Red Sox have won two out of the last three head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The Orioles are also 3-6 in their last 9 games played in Boston.

The Orioles are:

• Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter.
• Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
• Orioles are 14-6 in their last 20 Game 1s of a series.
• Orioles are 23-11 in their last 34 versus a team with a losing record.
• Orioles are 102-211 in their last 313 versus American League East.
• Orioles are 48-102 in their last 150 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Orioles are 76-166 in their last 242 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Orioles are 1-11 in their last 12 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Orioles are 0-9 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

The Red Sox are:

• Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Red Sox are 17-38 in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 17-41 in their last 58 versus American League East.
• Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.on grass.
• Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Lyles has been hit hard by Boston this season but overall, the veteran is having a good year and is even looking to tie his career-high in wins in this game. Lyles is also coming off his best performance of the season where he pitched 9 innings and allowed just one earned run on three hits so he should be carrying some momentum on Monday night.

Meanwhile, Seabold was hammered hard in his one start at Fenway this season, going just 2.2 innings while allowing seven runs on nine hits. He will be up against a Baltimore team that is badly in need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The bullpens could also play a big part in deciding this game and that’s where the Orioles have the huge edge against the Red Sox. Baltimore is 8th in bullpen ERA at 3.42 while the Red Sox are just 25th in that category at 4.47.

Boston is also coming off a Sunday night game in bad weather while the Orioles played in the afternoon on Sunday and will have more time to rest. That’s often not a factor in picking a winner but when a matchup is this close, those intangibles may be the difference in winning and losing the game. Not to mention that the Orioles need this game more than the Red Sox.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The under is also 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.

Baltimore Orioles over/under trends:

• Under is 10-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 13 road games.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Orioles’ last 4 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 10-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 10-2 in the Orioles’ last 12 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 9 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 9-3-1 in the Orioles’ last 13 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 18-8 in the Orioles’ last 26 games played on grass.
• Under is 9-4 in the Orioles’ last 13 games against a team with a losing record.
• Under is 18-8-3 in the Orioles’ last 29 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 11-1-1 in the Orioles’ last 13 Monday games.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Orioles’ last 5 versus the American League East.
• Over is 6-2 in the Orioles’ last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-3 in the Orioles’ last 9 games played overall.

Boston Red Sox over/under trends:

• Over is 5-2 in Red Sox’s last 7 overall.
• Over is 5-1 in Red Sox’s last 6 against the American League.
• Over is 5-1 in Red Sox’s last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in Red Sox’s last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 versus American League East.
• Over is 4-1 in Red Sox’s last 5 against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in Red Sox’s last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 5-2 in Red Sox’s last 7 on grass.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox’s last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 9-1-1 in Red Sox’s last 11 Monday games.
• Under is 5-1 in Red Sox’s last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in Red Sox’s last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Jordan Lyles is 6-8 with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.43 when pitching on the road this season. Meanwhile, Seabold has made just one start at Fenway Park and he conceded seven runs in 2.2 innings in that game with a BAA of .563.

These two teams have power in their respective lineups. The Orioles are 16th in baseball with a .388 slugging percentage. On the other hand, the Red Sox is in the Top 10 with their .410 team SLG mark. The total has gone over in 11 out of the Orioles’ last 13 Monday games and the over is 5-2 in the Red Sox’s last seven games played.

The Orioles and Red Sox have combined to score an average of 10.4 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. This should be another high-scoring game between these two teams.

Prediction: Over 9.5