Blake Daniels, December 13, 2022

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Two top contenders collide on Tuesday when the Golden State Warriors visit the Milwaukee Bucks at the Fiserv Forum.

The Warriors are coming off a huge win over the NBA leaders Boston Celtics in their last game played. The Dubs are 14-13 SU on the season and they are currently in 8th place in the Western Conference team standings. The Dubs are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played but have won just two of 13 road games played this year.

The Bucks head home after suffering an upset loss to the 8-18 Houston Rockets in their previous game. Milwaukee scored only 92 points against the Rockets and saw their four-game winning streak end the last time out. The Bucks are 19-7 SU on the season and they have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference so far this season.

This marks the first of two meetings between these powerhouse teams this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are coming off an impressive win over the Boston Celtics in their last game. The Dubs led the Celtics from start to finish and ended up winning 123-107 in a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals. Klay Thompson put up 34 points while Steph Curry added 32 points with six three-pointers as the Dubs moved above the .400 mark at 14-13 SU on the season.

Thompson scored 24 of his points in the opening half while Curry shot 12-21 from the field while also grabbing 6 rebounds and issuing 7 assists. Jordan Poole started in the place of the injured Andrew Wiggins and although he shot just 1-9 from deep, he finished with 20 points.

Wiggins has missed the Warriors’ last three games with tightness in his right thigh muscle and is listed as questionable for this game. However, Steve Kerr has a deep bench with the likes of Poole and Jonathan Kuminga able to pick up the slack. Draymond Green is also listed as day-to-day with a left ankle sprain.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks had a letdown in their previous game as they were upset on the road by the Houston Rockets 97-92. Jrue Holiday had 25 points and 8 assists for the Bucks while Giannis Antetokounmpo had a massive double-double with 16 points and 18 rebounds. However, Milwaukee shot just 37% from the field and was 12-43 from behind the arc while committing 16 turnovers.

Despite having an imposing frontline, the Bucks were outscored 56-36 in points in the paint. Khris Middleton left the game with a left ankle sprain and he is listed as questionable to play in this game. Jrue Holiday is also listed as day-to-day with a non-COVID-19 illness.

Holiday has been averaging 22.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.5 rebounds per game in his last four games played. Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks with 31.1 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game this season. The Bucks are 8th in the NBA with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game, including 2.5 per outing from Portis.

Warriors vs Bucks SU Prediction

The Warriors are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 2-1 SU in their last three home games against Golden State.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Warriors are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played on the road.
• The Warriors are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played against the Central Division.
• The Warriors are 7-2 SU in their last 9 December games.
• The Warriors are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played as underdogs.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Bucks are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played at home.
• The Bucks are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Bucks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 Tuesday home games.
• The Bucks are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games played as betting favorites.

The Warriors have been playing well as of late and are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played. However, their struggles on the road this season are notorious. Golden State is just 2-11 SU on the road this season and they will be facing a Milwaukee team that is an excellent 12-3 SU at home this season.

One thing going for the Warriors here is Bucks All-Star forward Khris Middleton suffering a minor ankle sprain in their last game against the Houston Rockets. Middleton is listed as questionable to play on Tuesday night. Although Milwaukee will miss his offense, they still have a huge advantage in the frontcourt.

The Bucks are the second-best rebounding team in the NBA while the Dubs are in the bottom 5. For as long as Milwaukee controls the boards, they should be able to limit the Warriors’ scoring opportunities. Given the Bucks’ ability to dominate the paint in this game and Golden State’s defensive struggles on the road, Milwaukee has the edge.

Look for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis to lord over their Golden State rivals. The Warriors will try to beat the Bucks with their high-scoring backcourt but the Bucks should be able to offset that with their frontcourt advantage.

In a well-fought game, I expect the Bucks to win at home.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Warriors vs Bucks ATS Prediction

The Warriors are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 2-1 ATS in their last 3 home games against Golden State.

Golden State Warriors ATS trends:

• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win.
• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record
• The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Bucks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday games.
• The Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• The Bucks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Klay Thompson has not looked like his old self since coming back from injury. But over the past two weeks, Thompson has shown flashes of the Splash Brother that the Dubs have missed this season and is coming off a 35-point effort against the best team in the league in Boston.

The Bucks struggled against the Houston Rockets and committed 16 turnovers in that game. Milwaukee saw Khris Middleton leave early with a left ankle sprain and he is listed as questionable to play in this game. If Middleton misses this game or plays compromised, then the Bucks’ offense may not be able to match a Warriors team with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole raining shots.

If Middleton isn’t available, look for the Bucks to lean on their defense to win this game. Having said that, this should be a back-and-forth affair with the Dubs’ offense in full swing. I expect a close game. But given Golden State’s struggles to win and cover on the road this season, I’ll lay the points and take the Bucks.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

Warriors vs Bucks Over/Under 

The under is 4-2 in the last 6 games played between these two teams. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 games played in Milwaukee.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 40-18 in the Warriors’ last 58 Tuesday games.
• The under is 6-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The under is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 road games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 7-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 9 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 4-0 in the Bucks’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 6-0 in the Bucks’ last 6 home games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 Tuesday games.

These teams have combined to score an average of 230.33 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. The Warriors are 4th in the NBA in scoring at 117.6 points per game this season and have seen the total go over 227 points six times in their last 8 games played.

The Bucks are 17th in the league in scoring but are still putting up 112.0 points per game this season. Milwaukee is coming off their worst shooting performance of the season where they shot just 12-43 from behind the arc. I expect them to bounce back with a strong offensive performance on Tuesday night.

Look for the Warriors to dictate the pace with their high-scoring offense. Expect the Bucks to go toe-to-toe with them because they have the firepower to do so. I don’t expect playoff defense to be played here. Instead, this should be a shootout between two of the league’s best teams.

Prediction: Over 227.5