Blake Daniels, December 15, 2022

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The Baltimore Ravens visit the Cleveland Browns at the FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday.

Baltimore is 9-4 SU on the season and is tied with the Cincinnati Bengals at the top of the AFC North Division team standings. The Ravens have won six out of their last seven games, including the last two without Lamar Jackson who suffered a knee injury during their Week 13 win over the Broncos.

Cleveland is 5-8 SU on the year and they are third in the division behind Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Browns saw their two-game win streak end last week against the Bengals. They are 0-2 in Deshaun Watson’s first two games with the team. Cleveland’s playoff hopes are slowly fading but mathematically, they have not yet been eliminated from contention.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have won four out of their last five games including their last two, despite playing without leading passer and rusher Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury during their Week 13 win over Denver.

Jackson missed the team’s Tuesday practice and could be out of Sunday’s game as well. Tyler Huntley, who finished the game against Denver and started last week in Pittsburgh, also suffered a concussion and is questionable for this game although he was at Wednesday’s practice.

Baltimore ranks 14th in total offense at 347 yards per game. They are 27th in passing with just 184.8 yards per game but are third on the ground with 162.2 rushing yards per game this season. The Ravens are surrendering 330.4 yards per contest and are second in rush defense at only 81.2 rushing yards per game allowed.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns have been fire and ice this season. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance in some games but have disappointed in others. Last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Browns were terrible as they lost 23-10.

Deshaun Watson started his second game of the season and he completed 61.9% of his passes for 276 yards with one TD. Nick Chubb was limited to just 34 rushing yards on 14 carries. Amari Cooper is expected to miss the game with a hip injury, leaving Donovan Peoples-Jones as Watson’s top pass catcher on Sunday.

Cleveland is allowing 343.8 yards per game this season, 17th in the league. This includes 128.1 yards per game on the ground. The Browns are averaging 368.8 offensive yards per game this season, including 149.5 yards on the ground. Nick Chubb leads the ground attack with 1,153 rushing yards and 12 rush TDs on the season. Chubb is also averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

Ravens vs Browns SU Prediction

The Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the Browns. Baltimore is 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played against Cleveland.

Baltimore Ravens SU trends:

• The Ravens are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Ravens are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.
• The Ravens are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played in December.
• The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played against the AFC.

Cleveland Browns SU trends:

• The Browns are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Browns are 3-3 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Browns are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played against the AFC.
• The Browns are 2-10 SU in their last 12 Week 15 games.

The Ravens have leaned on their defense to win their last two games despite playing without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is out with an ankle injury which he suffered during the team’s 28-27 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12. Baltimore could be without Jackon again on Sunday as early reports say Lamar might not be ready to return against the Browns.

More bad news for the Ravens as backup Tyler Huntley remains in concussion protocol after being forced out of last week’s win in Pittsburgh. That sets the stage for another appearance by rookie Anthony Brown who completed 3 of 5 passes for 16 yards without a score. Should Brown make the start, it should be another run-heavy game for Baltimore, particularly JK Dobbins who rushed for 120 yards in their last game.

Cleveland’s domination over Cincinnati ended last week as the Browns suffered a one-sided loss in Cincinnati. The fearsome defense that helped them win their last five games against the Bengals was nowhere in sight as Joe Burrow and company raced to an early double-digit lead and never looked back.

Worse, Deshaun Watson wasn’t able to deliver the kind of performance that was expected in his second game back from suspension. Watson threw for 276 passing yards with one TD but he was able to deliver 10 points from three drives to the Bengals’ red zone. He however showed better chemistry with Donovan Peoples-Jones who caught a career-best 114 yards.

The Browns could be without Amari Cooper here. But between Cleveland without Cooper and the Ravens without Lamar and possibly Huntley, there looks to be more concern on the Baltimore offensive side. Without key offensive players, the Ravens will be forced to lean on their defense and rushing attack to win this game.

Deshaun Watson hasn’t really been impressive in his first two games back from suspension. But there’s reason to believe that he is getting more comfortable by the week in Cleveland. The Ravens have the 7th worst passing defense in the league this season. This could be the game Watson shows his old form.

Prediction: Cleveland Browns

Ravens vs Browns ATS Prediction

The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Browns. The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Cleveland. The road team is also 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two teams.

Baltimore Ravens ATS trends:

• The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 15.
• The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in December.
• The Ravens are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Ravens are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games on grass.
• The Ravens are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record.
• The Ravens are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
• The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns ATS trends:

• The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
• The Browns are 25-51-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Browns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus the AFC.
• The Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 15.
• The Browns are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Browns are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games against a team with a winning record.
• The Browns are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played against the AFC North.
• The Browns are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The Browns are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

I like the Browns’ chances in this game considering that the Baltimore offense is very compromised. Lamar Jackson is likely not playing in this game while the team’s second-string QB is questionable to play. This situation gives the Cleveland defense a huge advantage against an experienced Ravens offense.

The Cleveland defense has plenty of weapons that can keep the Ravens’ depleted offense in check. If Garrett plays here, Baltimore is in even bigger trouble.

Offensively, Nick Chubb and the Browns’ rushing offense have averaged 149 rushing yards per game this season. I expect Chubb to punch through the line and do damage. The rushing attack should open up the field for Watson to get going with his passing game. Meanwhile, the Ravens offense will have a hard time keeping pace.

Prediction: Cleveland Browns

Ravens vs Browns Over/Under

Baltimore Ravens over/under trends:

• The under is 8-2 in the Ravens’ last 10 games overall.
• The under is 15-7 in the Ravens’ last 22 road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last 4 Saturday games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last 4 games against the AFC North.
• The under is 7-1 in the Ravens’ last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last 6 versus the AFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 8-2 in the Ravens’ last 10 against a team with a losing record.
• The under is 7-2 in the Ravens’ last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 9-3 in the Ravens’ last 12 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 19-7 in the Ravens’ last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Cleveland Browns over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Browns’ last 4 Saturday games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games in Week 15.
• The under is 4-1-1 in the Browns’ last 6 games against the AFC North.
• The under is 47-18-3 in the Browns’ last 68 games in December.
• The over is 5-2 in the Browns’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Browns’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 12-5-1 in the Browns’ last 18 games against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Browns’ last 6 home games.
• The over is 6-2-1 in the Browns’ last 9 games on grass.

The Ravens could be without Jackson who is their leading passer and rusher. His backup, Huntley is also questionable, meaning that Baltimore’s third-stringer could have his hands full. With those being said, the Ravens’ offense must be creative to pick up yards against a decent Cleveland defense.

Meanwhile, with Chubb having a good season averaging over five yards per carry, look for the Cleveland Browns to run the football in this game. The Browns have most of their starters healthy but they could be without Cooper downfield. With Watson down one key receiver, I expect the Browns to even run the football more on Sunday.

I think both teams will stick to a running game. That should result in a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under