Blake Daniels, February 17, 2023

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The NBA All-Star weekend is here and one of the events to open basketball’s midseason classic is the Three-Point Contest.

This year’s edition will be the 37th time that this shootout has been held on All-Star Weekend. The first-ever 3-Point Contest was in 1986 in Dallas and was won by Celtics legend Larry Bird. Bird would go on to win the first three iterations of the contest.

Craig Hodges later joined Bird as the contest’s only three-time winner as he also won three in a row from 1990 to 1992. Peja Stojakovic, Jeff Hornacek, Mike Price, Jason Kapono, and Stephen Curry are the only other players to win more than once with two apiece.

This year, 2020 winner Buddy Hield will look to join the list of two-time winners. He will have stiff competition on Saturday however, with seven other sharpshooters eyeing their first 3-Point title.

STARRY 3-POINT CONTEST: FORMAT AND RULES

• The order of competition will be determined by a random draw.
• Each contestant is given 70 seconds at 1:10 to shoot as many of the 28 balls as he can.
• Ball racks are positioned at five main shooting locations around the three-point arc.
• Four of the racks contain four official NBA game balls and one multi-colored “money” ball.
• The NBA game balls are worth one point. The multicolored “money” ball is worth two points.
• For each rack, the multicolored “money” ball can only be shot after the four orange balls are shot.
• The fifth rack will be a special “all-money ball” rack. Each competitor will decide the spot for this rack to be placed at one of the five main shooting locations. Every ball on this rack is worth two points.
• Two ball pedestals are positioned at “Starry Range” (two deep shot locations between racks 2 and 3 and the other between racks 3 and 4.
• Each ball pedestal holds one special white “Starry” ball.
• Shots made with the white ball are worth 3 points.
• Players must exhaust the ball racks and pedestals in competition order before moving on to the next shooting location.
• Players may not start on or over the 3-point line while shooting. The basket will not count if the line is violated. For the two additional deep shots, the player must begin their shooting motion with at least one foot in “Starry Range,” designated by a floor decal.
• Instant replay may be utilized for clarification of rules compliance but at the discretion of the referee.
• The players with the three highest scores in the opening round will advance to the final round.
• The order of contestants in the final round will be determined by the inverse order of the first-round score. For example, the player with the lowest first-round score will shoot first in the final round.
• In the event of a tie to determine the three finalists, a 30-second shootout tiebreaker will be held between the tied contestants until the tie is broken.
• In the event of a tie to determine the champion, a full 70-second tiebreaker will take place. The process will be repeated until the tie is broken.

This year’s contest will take place on Saturday, February 18th at the Vivint Arena as the second event of All-Star Saturday. The event will be televised via TNT.

Three-Point Contest Participant and Odds

These are the odds for this year’s NBA Three-Point Contest. Odds taken from BetOnline as of 2/16/23 and arranged according to the best odds:

• Damian Lillard +300
• Buddy Hield +400
• Tyrese Haliburton +450
• Kevin Huerter +500
• Jayson Tatym +650
• Lauri Markkanen +700
• Tyler Herro +700
• Julius Randle +750

Who are the Favorites?

For this contest, we have picked three contestants as our favorites to win the contest. In our opinion, these are the three players who have the best chances of winning Saturday’s Three-Point contest:

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is perhaps the best in-game shooter in the competition. Dame Time is a catchphrase we all know and the reason behind it is that Lillard has the knack to have to ball in his hands when the game is on the line. The owner of countless buzzer beaters and game-winning jumpers, Lillard is one of the best clutch players in the game.

This season, Lillard is tied with Klay Thompson at No. 2 with 4.2 three-pointers made per game. He also ranks behind Steph Curry at no. 2 with 11.2 three-point attempts per game. Lillard ranks 6th all-time in career three-pointers made and is third overall behind Steph Curry and James Harden among active players. Neither Curry nor Harden will be in Saturday’s contest so Lillard will be the most prolific three-point shooter on Saturday.

Given his knack to hit big baskets, Damian Lillard is a good bet here. He’s entered this competition once and has never won it. You bet a guy like him is going to shine when the lights are brightest.

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield is tied for 6th in the NBA with a .427 shooting clip but among Saturday’s contestants, he has the highest three-point shooting percentage. He also ranks 5th in three-point makes per game at 3.8 and among three three-point contest participants, only Damian Lillard’s 4.2 3P makes per game are better.

But no one has taken or made more three-pointers than Hield this season. Hield has made more three-pointers than any player in the last five years. Earlier this year, Hield also became the second-fastest player to hit 1,500 three-pointers. But since Steph Curry entered the competition, this one should be Buddy’s Hield’s to lose. Last December, Hield also broke the record for the fastest three-point basket in a game when he hit a three-pointer after just 3 seconds of play.

He also won the 2020 edition of this contest in Chicago. He decided not to defend his title the following season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But now he’s back in the competition and is, without doubt, the odds-on favorite to win it all this weekend.

Jayson Tatum

Tatum moved to third from 4th in the Three-Point contest odds board after Anfernee Simons was replaced by Julius Randle. The Boston Celtics superstar is having a fantastic season and is averaging 30.6 points per game this season. He is also shooting 46.4% from the floor and is just 35.6% from deep. However, Tatum has a career three-point shooting percentage north of 37% and is shooting 40.6% from deep this month.

Tatum is also not new to this contest as he finished third behind Stephen Curry and Mike Conley Jr. JT is not a popular bet in the competition. But he is a big game player who knows when to hit the big baskets. If Tatum wins, the Celtics will have the most winners in the 3 -Point contest history with 5.

Betting Value

Aside from our favorites, here are a pair of contestants who present betting value for their current price

Lauri Markkanen

Markkanen is an interesting option here. He has the second-longest odds to win the contest but he has the second-best 3P shooting percentage among the participants at .412, behind only Buddy Hield. Markkanen ranks only 27th in three-point attempts per game at 7.4 per game but is 11th in makes at 3.0 triples per contest.

Markkanen is having a fantastic season in Utah and he is posting career-highs across the board this season and is putting up 24.9 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting at a 51.3% clip. Markkanen made the All-Star team for the first time in his career and with this weekend’s festivities held in Utah, we could be in for a surprise.

Tyler Herro

The reigning 6th Man of the Year has evolved from being just a three-point shooter in Miami to a clutch player and end-game closer for the Heat. While Herro isn’t shooting that well from deep this season at just 36.9%, he is a guy who makes the big shots when needed. He is also shooting better on the road than at home this year at 37.5% versus 36.1%.

Herro is also ranked in the Top 13 in the league in three-point attempts so he is a volume three-point shooter. He is also one of only 13 players to make at least three three-pointers per game this season. The Heat guard has a career 38.1% three-point shooting clip. Herro is a pure shooter, he has a great stroke and a quick release.

Our Prediction: Damian Lillard

Lillard enters the All-Star weekend burning like a house on fire. Since December, he’s made 154 out of 402 attempts from a three-point distance or a 38.3% clip from downtown. This month, Lillard has averaged 36.1 points per game and we all know that when Dame is hot, he is HOT.

He also has the best range among the contestants on Saturday and that will come in handy given that the starry white basketballs are placed in the 27-30 foot wing areas.

Lillard is also a clutch shooter and he won’t be affected by pressure. I mean this is a guy with plenty of game-winning basket highlights and he isn’t known as “Dame Time” for nothing.

As far as contest experience is concerned, Lillard finished 3rd in 2013 and although he did not win that year, he was just one point behind the Western Conference finalist Marco Belinelli who had 19. Belinelli went on to win the contest anyway.

Hield is also more of a catch-and-shoot gunner with 93.3% of his shots under that variety. Meanwhile, only one-third of Lillard’s threes have been via catch-and-shoot. Also, 87.8% of Buddy’s three-pointers have been assisted, as compared to Lillard’s 52.9%.

Other Bet To Make: Odds to Make the 3PT Contest Finals

If you are torn between Lillard and Hield or an event by all of the contestants, perhaps you might want to check out the other betting market for the Three-Point Contest at the online sportsbook BetOnline.

That betting market is on which contestants will make the Finals. The odds are understandably shorter here because we’re not picking the winner. Instead, we’re picking which three will make the final round. This means that the player you will be picking n this betting market only needs to finish in the Top 3 in the first round. Better, right?

Let’s take a look at the odds at the BetOnline App:

• Damian Lillard -120
• Buddy Hield +120
• Tyrese Haliburton +155
• Kevin Huerter +160
• Jayson Tatum +200
• Lauri Markkanen +225
• Tyler Herro +230
• Julius Randle +250

Damian Lillard is my pick to win the 3-Point contest, and he should be an easy pick in this betting market. However, Lillard is currently at minus money odds and there is no value in that here as compared to the other contestants who are listed at plus money odds.

If Lillard wasn’t in this contest, I would have gone with Buddy Hield as my winner. No question, he ticks all the boxes. He is a high-volume three-point shooter, he has the best accuracy among the contestants, and he has won this contest before. At +120, there’s absolute value on Buddy Hield.

Markkanen and Herro are near the bottom of this betting market at +225 and +230. Markkanen is playing at home and he is shooting over 40% from deep this season. Herro isn’t as accurate this year but like Lillard and Tatum, he is a big-game clutch shooter.

Three finalists in this competition. If you want me to pick my finalists, it would be Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and Tyler Herro. If you want me to make a bet on the three finalists, I’ll take out Dame from the list and replace him with Markkanen.

If I pick one from the list, I will go with Buddy Hield.

Prediction: Buddy Hield to advance to the Finals of the Three-Point Contest