Blake Daniels, February 21, 2023

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Mid-American Conference rivals meet on Tuesday night at Worthen Arena in Muncie, Indiana when the Ken State Golden Flashes visit the Ball State Cardinals.

Kent State is 22-5 SU and 12-2 MAC and is the leader in the MAC. They have won their last four games played and are coming off an 81-54 win over Eastern Michigan last Friday.

Meanwhile, Ball State saw a six-game winning streak end on the road last Saturday against Western Michigan 78-68. The Cardinals are 4th in the latest Mid-Atlantic Division team standings with a 10-4 SU conference mark while also having a 19-8 SU overall record.

Kent State

Flashes Flew Past the Eagles to Secure their 20th Straight Win at Home https://t.co/ZfIIZftelz

— Kent State Men's Basketball (@KentStMBB) February 18, 2023

The Golden Flashes beat Eastern Michigan 81-54 last Friday to remain in first place in the Mid-Atlantic Conference. Sincere Carry led Kent State with 17 points and 6 assists while the Golden Flashes shot 53.4% from the floor while forcing 19 turnovers. The Golden Flashes held Eastern Michigan to 2-10 three-point shooting.

Carry is Kent State’s leading scorer at 17.9 points and 4.8 assists per game this season. He scored 18 against Ball State in their first meeting and Kent State made 30 out of 59 shots or 50.8% in that game. Malique Jacobs is also averaging 12.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

The Golden Flashes are averaging 71.3 points per game while allowing 65.2 points per game this season. They are also holding their opponents to 41.2% FG shooting and 1.2% from behind the three-point arc. Defensively, Kent State is in the Top ⅓ of the MAC in blocks and steals.

Ball State

.@JaylinSellers ties a season high with 22 points. The Cardinals fall to the Broncos. #ChirpChirp x #WeFly pic.twitter.com/24QrcTmv8T

— Ball State Men's Basketball (@BallStateMBB) February 18, 2023

Ball State saw its six-game winning streak end last weekend when they were upset by Western Michigan 78-68 as 7.5-point spread favorites. Jaylin Sellers led the Cardinals with 22 points and 5 rebounds but Ball State shot just 38% from the floor and ended up suffering their fourth loss in 14 conference games.

Jarron Coleman is the team’s leading scorer at 14.9 points per game this season. Payton Sparks is contributing 12.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Sparks was held to just 7 points when these two teams played last month. Ball State shot just 36.5% from the floor and was outscored 42-16 in points in the paint. Sellers and Bashid Jihad each had 11 points in the loss.

The Cardinals are scoring 74.3 points per game this season but are allowing opponents to score 76.8 or a margin of -2.5 which ranks 8th in their conference. Ball State makes 8.5 three-pointers per game this year which is 3rd in the MAC. Coleman has made 66 triples to lead the team this season.

State vs State SU Prediction

Kent State is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against Ball State. The Golden Flashes are 3-1 SU in their last four road games against the Cardinals.

Kent State SU trends:

• The Golden Flashes are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Golden Flashes are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.
• The Golden Flashes are 5-0 SU in their last 5 February games.
• The Golden Flashes are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played against the Mid-American Conference.

Ball State SU trends:

• The Cardinals are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Cardinals are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played at home.
• The Cardinals are 4-1 SU in their last 4 games played against the East Division.
• The Cardinals are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played against the Mid-American conference.

Ball State is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last 7 games played. The Cardinals were blown out by 21 points during their first meeting of the season with the Golden Flashes last month but they were on the road in that game and they are 12-4 SU at home this season.

Kent State however is above .500 on the road overall this season. They have played very well and have won four in a row. Their three conference losses this season have come against ranked teams and wee by an aggregate losing margin of 14 points.

The Golden Flashes have played well on both ends of the floor this season. But it will be their defense that will be the key to winning this game. Kent State has the muscle to match up well against Payton Sparks. If the Golden Flashes can contain Sparks again, look for them to pick up this road win.

Kent State has historically dominated this matchup with only three losses in their last 20 head-to-head meetings. They are also 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played against the Cardinals. The Golden Flashes are also 13-2 SU in their last 15 games played as a betting favorite. I’m picking Kent State to win on the road on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Kent State

State vs State ATS Prediction

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four games played between these two teams. The underdog is also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 head-to-head meetings.

Kent State ATS trends:

• The Golden Flashes are 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games overall.
• The Golden Flashes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
• The Golden Flashes are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.
• The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 February games.
• The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Mid-Atlantic Conference.
• The Golden Flashes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Golden Flashes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Golden Flashes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Golden Flashes are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Golden Flashes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight-up win.
• The Golden Flashes are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 Tuesday games.
• The Golden Flashes are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

Ball State AT trends:

• The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Cardinals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss.
• The Cardinals are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Tuesday games.
• The Cardinals are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games played against the Mid-American Conference.
• The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the East Division.

Kent State continues to have a very good season. They lead their conference with an 18-7-0 record against the spread. They head to this game having covered their last four contests and already own a win against Ball State earlier this season.

During that 86-65 win, the Golden Flashes dominated all facets of the game. Kent State also has the edge in athleticism and physicality so they match up well with Payton Sparks.

Kent State is also 8-5 ATS on the road this season. Considering three of those losses have come against ranked teams Houston, Gonzaga, and Charleston by a total losing margin of 14 points, they have played well on the road this season.

I don’t expect the result to be any different this time around. Give me the road team to win the game and cover the spread.

Prediction: Kent State

State vs State Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is also 5-1 in the last six games played between Kent State and Ball State.

Kent State Over/Under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Golden Flashes’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 25-7 in the Golden Flashes’ last 32 road games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Golden Flashes’ last seven Tuesday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Golden Flashes’ last seven opponents from the West Division.
• The under is 4-0 in the Golden Flashes’ last 4 games following a straight-up win
• The under is 21-4-1 in the Golden Flashes’ last 26 games versus a team with a winning % above .600
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Golden Flashes’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
• The under is 22-5 in the Golden Flashes’ last 27 road games against a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 21-5 in the Golden Flashes’ last 26 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 8-2 in the Golden Flashes’ last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 7-1 in the Golden Flashes’ last 8 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

Ball State Over/Under trends:

• The over is 6-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 9 overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 home games.
• The over is 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last 9 games played in February.
• The over is 10-1 in the Cardinals’ last 11 home games versus a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• The over is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last 7 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 21-6 in the Cardinals’ last 27 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 20-7 in the Cardinals’ last 27 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The under is 14-5 in the Cardinals’ last 19 games following a straight-up loss.

The under has hit only twice in Ball State’s last nine games played. The Cardinals have also shot well from the floor as of late. However, remember that Ball State shot just 19-52 from the field against Kent State. Kent State has held its last seven opponents to below 70 points per game. No question, the Golden Flashes play tough defense.

However, Kent State is averaging 75.4 points per game this season while Ball State is putting up 76.3 points per game and is in the Top 42 in field goal shooting and three-point shooting. In their first meeting, these two teams combined for 151 points, well over the 139.5-point total.

Prediction: Over 143.5