Blake Daniels, March 9, 2023

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The Houston Rockets head to Indianapolis to take on the Pacers at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Thursday night.

Houston is 15-50 SU on the season and they have the worst record in the Western Conference, one game worse than the 16-49 San Antonio Spurs. Houston has lost 8 out of their last 10 games played and the Rockets are coming off a 96-118 defeat at the hands of the Brooklyn Nets. Although they are not yet officially out of the playoff race, the Rockets are 30.5 games behind the top-seeded Denver Nuggets in the West.

Indiana is 29-37 SU on the season and the Pacers are 18.5 games behind the East leaders Milwaukee Bucks. They are however just two games behind the 10th-seeded Washington Wizards and just four off the 8th-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference leaders. With still 16 regular season games left to play, the Pacers still have enough games to catch up and try to make the playoffs.

Houston Rockets

Houston’s losing season continued as they were demolished by the Brooklyn Nets 118-96 in their last game played on Wednesday. Jalen Green led the Rockets with 25 points while Alperen Sengun recorded a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds in the losing effort.

The Rockets started fast and took an 11-point lead but the Net took control of the game with a 59-54 halftime lead. Brooklyn pulled away in the third and they built a 75-57 lead midway through the third period and never looked back.

They are scoring an average of 110.3 points per game on 45.4% FG shooting while allowing 118.2 points per game and 47.9% opponents’ FG percentage.

Jalen Green leads the Rockets at 21.7 points per game this season while Kevin Porter is contributing 18.8 points and 5.4 assists per game. Alperen Sengun is the third double-digit scorer on the team at 14.8 points per contest while also pulling down 8.8 rebounds per game.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are also coming off a loss in their last game with Indiana dropping a 147-143 defeat to the Philadelphia 76ers in a high-scoring affair. Tyrese Haliburton had a massive game with 40 points and 16 assists while Jordan Nwora added 18 points.

In all, the Pacers put 7 players in double-digit scoring and shot 58.9% from the floor but they allowed the 76ers to shoot over 62% from the field. Philly held a big lead in the 4th quarter but the Pacers made a comeback only to fall four points short.

Indiana is scoring 115 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the floor. They are allowing their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field and 117.4 points per game this year.

Tyrese Haliburton leads the Pacers in scoring at 20.6 points per game this season. Since the break, Halliburton is putting up 27.6 points 12.2 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game this year. Myles Turner is having a great year at 18.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game.

Rockets vs Pacers SU Prediction

The Rockets are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pacers. Houston is also 1-2 SU in their last 3 games played in Indiana.

Houston Rockets SU trends:

• The Rockets are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games played against the Pacers.
• The Rockets are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games played on the road.
• The Rockets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Rockets are 0-10-1 SU in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.
• The Rockets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 home games played against the Eastern Conference.

Indiana Pacers SU trends:

• The Pacers are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games played.
• The Pacers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Pacers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played in March.
• The Pacers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played against the Southwest Division.
• The Pacers are 5-7 SU in their last 12 home games against the Western Conference.

The Pacers have been a middling team this season. Indiana ranked 28th in the NBA in offense heading to Wednesday’s games. However, in their six games since the All-Star break, the Pacers have scored an average of 125 points per game, 4th overall during that span, behind only the Sacramento Kings, L.A. Clippers, and Dallas Mavericks.

Several Indiana Pacers have stepped up their games in the last two weeks. However, it had been Tyrese Haliburton who has been the most impressive player on the team.

Named as an All-Star for the first time in his career, Halliburton is averaging 27.6 points per game on 57.1% field goal shooting plus 12.2 assists per game since the All-Star Break. Although the Pacers lost to the Philadelphia 76ers last Monday, Haliburton had one of his best games ever at 40 points and 16 assists.

The Rockets are hoping that what happened to Haliburton this season, will happen soon to Jalen Green. Halliburton’s breakout year came in his third year. Green is in his second season and is averaging 21.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game but at only 21 years old, he has been inconsistent.

Green scored 31 points on 11-19 shooting in a win over the Spurs last Sunday. However, he missed 6 of 7 three-pointers while shooting only 42.5% from the field during a 25-point effort against the Brooklyn Nets last Tuesday. Green has not shot 50% from the field in back-to-back games since late December when he put up 26 points and 54.1% FG shooting against the Bulls and Celtics.

As a team, the Rockets rank last in the league in three-point shooting at 32.7% this season. With their inability to shoot from deep, Green has had a hard time scoring with the lanes clogged up with defenders. Outside of Jalen Green, there has been little to cheer about in Houston.

The Rockets have the worst record in the Western Conference and they are in good shape to land the top pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. Given the circumstances, the Rockets might be better off losing this game than winning it.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are still in the playoff hunt. They are just 2 games off the 10th seed and still have more than enough games left to catch up. They have more motivation to win this game.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers

Rockets vs Pacers ATS Prediction

The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Pacers. Houston is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played in Indiana.

Houston Rockets ATS trends:

• The Rockets are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
• The Rockets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games.
• The Rockets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Rockets are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.
• The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games.
• The Rockets are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Rockets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Indiana Pacers ATS trends:

• The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• The Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

The Rockets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games played. Houston is also 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games played overall. Indiana is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played overall.

These two teams are on opposite poles right now. Houston is already too far behind in the team standings to make a playoff run, The Pacers are still in the hunt. I think that the Pacers’ offense continues to play well on Thursday night. Give me the Pacers to cover at home.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers -9.5

Rockets vs Pacers Over/Under Prediction

The under is 11-3 in the last 14 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played in Indiana.

Houston Rockets over/under trends:

• The over is 4-2 in the Rockets’ last 6 games played.
• The over is 8-2 in the Rockets’ last 10 Thursday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 5-4 in the Rockets’ last 9 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The over is 17-15-1 in the Rockets’ last 33 road games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Rockets’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last 5 games played against the Central Division.

Indiana Pacers over/under trends:

• The over is 5-2 in the Pacers’ last 7 overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Pacers’ last 5 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The over is 5-2 in the Pacers’ last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• Over is 5-1 in the Pacers’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Pacers’ last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400.
• The under is 8-1 in the Pacers’ last 9 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 6-1 in the Pacers’ last 7 home games. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The under is 4-1 in the Pacers’ last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

The Rockets have scored an average of 120 points per game in their last 3 games played. Indiana’s offense has been on fire since the All-Star break. The Pacers’ defense has also conceded at least 122 points five times in their last 8 games played. They also rank 8th overall in the league in pace.

Both teams aren’t elite on defense. With their offense finding a groove as of late, this should turn out to be a shootout which the Pacer will win.

Prediction: Over 235.5