Blake Daniels, March 15, 2023

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The Sacramento Kings visit the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on Wednesday night.

Sacramento is 40-27 SU on the season and they are in third place in the Western Conference team standings. The Kings are five games off the Denver Nuggets’ pace but are just one game behind the 2nd seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Sacramento has won 8 out of their last 10 games played heading to this contest.

Chicago is 31-36 SU on the year and they have dropped outside the Top 10 in the latest East team standings. They however are just one game behind the 9th-seeded Toronto Raptors and just two off the 8th-seeded Atlanta Hawks. The Bulls are just 5-5 in their last 10 games played but have won their most recent two assignments.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings saw their three-game winning streak end at home the last time out when they were beaten by the Milwaukee Bucks 133-124. Domantas Sabonis recorded a triple-double with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists. De’Aaron Fox led the Kings with 35 points while scoring 17 of his 28 points in the fourth quarter.

Sacramento led the game early but after Milwaukee scored the first 12 points of the second half, they grabbed the lead and never looked back. The game was marred by a fight with 15 seconds left in the game which caused the ejection of Trey Lyles and Brook Lopez.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls picked up their second straight win when they outlasted the Houston Rockets 119-111 on the road last Saturday. Zach LaVine scored 36 points to lead Chicago while DeMar DeRozan added 27. Nikola Vucevic also had a big game with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Patrick Beverley also had his best game in a Bulls uniform with 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Chicago trailed by four points midway through the 4th quarter but they unleashed a 13-0 run to build a 115-106 lead with two minutes left in the game. LaVine has made at least 12 FGs in four out of his last five games played. He averaged 35.0 points per game during that stretch.

Kings vs Bulls SU Prediction

The Kings are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bulls. Sacramento is 0-2 SU in their last two games played in Chicago.

Sacramento Kings SU trends:

• The Kings are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Kings are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.
• The Kings are 5-7 SU in their last 12 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Kings are 9-6 SU in their last 15 games as favorites against the Eastern Conference.
• The Kings are 29-12 SU in their last 39 games played as betting favorites.

Chicago Bulls SU trends:

• The Bulls are 5-3 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Bulls are 18-15 SU in their last 33 home games.
• The Bulls are 8-14 SU in their last 22 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Bulls are 5-6 SU in their last 11 home games against the Western Conference.
• The Bulls are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Bulls are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played in March.

The Bulls are holding on for dear life right now. After starting Tuesday in the 10th spot, the Bulls have dropped to 11th in the Eastern Conference but are just two games behind the 8th-seeded Atlanta Hawks. Chicago has won two in a row but is just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played.

They defeated the Denver Nuggets 117-96 last Wednesday then beat the Houston Rockets 119-111 on Saturday. Against Houston, the Bulls rallied after allowing the Rocket to score 40 points in the third quarter. The Chicago defense, which ranks in the Top 10 in the league in scoring defense at 112.4 points per game allowed, held Houston to 16 points in the final period while scoring 32, including 10 from DeMar DeRozan.

Patrick Beverley led the rally with four rebounds, two assists, and a blocked shot. He finished the game with 16 points, his first double-digit scoring output since joining the Bulls during the All-Star break. A former member of the All-Defensive NBA team, Beverley’s defense, and hustle could be the difference maker in Chicago making the play-in tournament or not.

Meanwhile, the Kings saw their three-game winning streak end last Monday against the Milwaukee Bucks. Sacramento blew a 15-point first-half lead and lost 133-124 to the Bucks despite big games from De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Kevin Huerter. Fox scored 35 points while Sabonis recorded his 10th triple-double of the season with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists but shot just 3-11 during the second half.

Sacramento is now 1-5 SU when allowing more than 155 points, with the only exception being their 176-175 win over the L.A Clippers on 2 OT last February 24. The Kings are currently third in the Western Conference and are just one game behind the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies.

The Kings own the NBA’s top-scoring offense at 121.3 points per game but are third to last in scoring defense at 118.6 points per game allowed.

I like the Kings in this matchup. While their defense has been a weak link, they are playing against a Chicago team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in scoring. I think that Chicago won’t be able to keep up with Sacramento’s high-octane offense, leading to the Sacramento win.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings

Kings vs Bulls ATS Prediction

The Kings are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Chicago.

Sacramento Kings ATS trends:

• The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Chicago Bulls ATS trends:

• The Bulls are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The Bulls are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Bulls are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bulls are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bulls are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bulls are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Kings have outscored the Bulls by an average of 6.9 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Sacramento defeated Chicago by 9 points during their first meeting of the season last December 4, 2022.

Chicago’s offensive woes this season are not secret. The Kings are the league’s top-scoring team this year. I don’t think that the Bulls will be able to keep up with the Kings’ offense for 48 minutes. Chicago will hit periods of drought in this game and the Kings will be able to take advantage during those stretches.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings

Kings vs Bulls Over/Under Prediction

The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games played between these two teams.

Sacramento Kings over/under trends:

• The over is 12-3-1 in the Kings’ last 16 overall.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Kings’ last 4 road games.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Kings’ last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 6-1 in the Kings’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Kings’ last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Kings’ last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 12-3-1 in the Kings’ last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 12-3-1 in the Kings’ last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 12-3-1 in the Kings’ last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Kings’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

Chicago Bulls over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 8-3 in the Bulls’ last 11 home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bulls’ last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bulls’ last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The under is 13-3 in the Bulls’ last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last 5 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 14-4 in the Bulls’ last 18 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 9-3 in the Bulls’ last 12 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 16-6 in the Bulls’ last 22 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 13-5 in the Bulls’ last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4 in the Bulls’ last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

These two teams play at a fast pace with Sacramento ranking 10th in adjusted tempo rating and Chicago 16th in that area. Both teams love to move the ball up the floor as soon as possible and these are two teams that like to score in transition.

The Kings are No.1 in the NBA in scoring and have the third-worst-scoring defense. The Bulls don’t have the best scoring offense in the league but the Kings’ defense will help them help Sacramento hit the total.

Sacramento has scored at least 122 points in each of its last 10 games played. The Bulls’ offense has been hitting its shots as of late and has scored at least 117 points in four out of their last 5 games played. This one should be a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 237