The West Virginia Mountaineers will take on the Texas Longhorns in an interesting Big 12 matchup in Week 10 of NCAA College Football on 11/3/18.
The Mountaineers enter Saturday’s game as the 12th ranked team but they opened as spread underdogs to the 15th ranked Longhorns. West Virginia blasted Baylor 58-14 last week while Texas is still on the mend after losing to Oklahoma State and tumbling 9 spots down the national rankings.
The Longhorns saw their six game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cowboys 35-38 last week. Texas had no answers for Oklahoma State’s offense and were outgained 502-402 in total yards.The loss dropped Texas to 6-2 (4-1 in conference play) and put their potential playoff berth on hold.
Quarterback Sam Ehlinger leads the Texas offense with 1,817 passing yards this season with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Ehlinger left the Oklahoma State game with a shoulder injury but appeared to be alright. He has yet to be picked off at home this season but will be tested against a West Virginia unit that has forced 10 interceptions in 7 games.
The West Virginia Mountaineers have the number one scoring defense in the Big 12 at 19.6 points per game. They also have the #2 ranked rush defense (132.9 rushing yards per game) and #2 pass defense (216.6 passing yards per game) in the conference. Their defense is going to make this a tough game for a Texas team that is only 59th in the nation in scoring.
Will Grier has become one of the best quarterbacks the West Virginia program has ever produced. Grier is completing 70% of his has thrown for 2,272 yards with 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Compared to Texas’ Ehlinger, Grier has thrown at least 100 yards better per game.
West Virginia is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played and 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road. Texas is also 6-1 SU in their last seven games played and 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home. These teams have split their last six meetings 3-3 but The West Virginia Mountaineers have won two out of the last three meetings. Texas won the most recent one 28-14 last November 18, 2017.
West Virginia had solid victories over Baylor while Texas couldn’t get the win over Oklahoma State but Texas is a very formidable team on both ends of the field and have the talent to beat any team in college football. It looked as if Texas was looking ahead at their matchup and overlooked Oklahoma State. Texas has more talent and is the more physical team here so I expect them to be dominant in the trenches. very well make the difference. It’s interesting to note too that West Virginia is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games as underdog.
The crowd in Texas is probably one of the reasons why the Longhorns were installed as favorites in this game. In a game of evenly matched teams, I like to pick the home team because the crowd could very well make the difference. West Virginia has a real chance at winning this but I’m going with my gut feeling here. Give me the home team to bounce back with the win. We’re picking the Texas Longhorns to beat the West Virginia Mountaineers on 11/3/18.
West Virginia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played while Texas is 15-8 ATS in their last 23 games played at home. The Mountaineers are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games after gaining 450 yards in their previous game. On the other hand, the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with winning records.
West Virginia is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Texas is playing in front of their home crowd and they should help the Longhorns bounce back with a big victory. It’s going to be close alright but I think by at least a field goal. Prediction: Texas -2
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 12 games of West Virginia. The total has also gone under in 18 out of the last 25 games of Texas and the total is 11-5 in the last 16 home games of the Longhorns. The under is 22-6-1 in the last 29 games of Texas against teams with winning records on the road. The under is also 11-4 in the last 15 games of West Virginia after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and the under is also 17-6 in the Mountaineers last 23 games after holding their opponents to less than 20 points in their previous game.
Sure, we have two great quarterbacks here but these are two very elite defenses facing each other. West Virginia ranks 1st in the Big 12 in points allowed at 19.6 points per game while Texas ranks third in the same Big 12 statistical category at 24.9 points per game. As the spread odds above show, bookies are expecting this to be a close game being a must-win for both squads. The trends also almost unanimously points to the under. I think this is the best bet for a 50-50 game likes this one. The under is a very solid pick in this game. Prediction: Under 58
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