The 10th ranked Florida Gators take on 7th ranked Michigan in the Peach Bowl on Saturday, December 29th at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
Florida finished the season with a 9-3 record including 5-3 in the SEC. The Gators enter this game having won three games in a row. Michigan was 10-2 on the season and finished with an 8-1 Big Ten record. The Wolverines are coming off a 39-62 loss to Ohio State in their season finale.
After back to back blowouts losses to Georgia and Missouri, Florida bounced back strong to win their last three games and earn a spot at the Peach Bowl. The Gators had a solid season, going 2-1 against ranked opponents this season including a 27-19 conquest of LSU at their home field. Florida defeated rival Florida State 41-14 in their most recent outing.
Sophomore quarterback Feleipe Franks has tossed for 2,284 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. Franks has also rushed for 276 yards with six touchdowns scored. Florida’s two headed running attack of Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett combined for 1,467 yards and 10 touchdowns on 250 carries to lead the nation’s 27th ranked rushing attack.
Except for the first quarter of their first game against Notre Dame and their last game of the season against Ohio State, the Michigan Wolverines were a splendid defensive team that went 10-2 on the season and 8-1 in conference play. The Wolverines carried a ten-game winning streak heading to their final game of the season only to be pulverized 39-62 by Ohio State, ruining their National Championship hopes.
Junior quarterback Shea Patterson has thrown for 2,364 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for 268 yards with two touchdowns. Senior Kara Higdon is Michigan’s top running back with 1,178 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. However, he will not be playing in this game to prepare for April’s NFL Draft. Aside from Higdon, the Wolverines will be missing two key defensive personnel in this outing as Devin Bush and Rashan Gary will also be not suiting up for Michigan.
The Florida Gators were 9-3 SU on the season and 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played. The Michigan Wolverines finished the regular season with a 10-2 SU record and are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Head to head, the Wolverines are 4-0 SU in their last four meetings against the Gators.
The strength of the Wolverines has been their stout defense. Michigan only allowed more than 20 points twice this season and they held their opponents to a measly 262.5 yards per game which was the best in the nation this season. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they will play Florida without their top two pass rushers. Linebacker Devin Bush is out with a hip injury while Defensive End Rashan Gary will sit out the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Now these are just two defensive players but without both, the Michigan defense suffers a noticeable downgrade.
On offense, Michigan will also be playing without top running back Kara Higdon who also elected to sit out this game in favor of preparing for the NFL Draft. Higdon accounted for 45% of Michigan’s rushing game production and will be sorely missed. Chris Evans will take over and while he does have experience, he isn’t Higdon and the offense will have a different feel without their top ground producer.
The betting line didn’t move much when Higdon announced that he will sit out this game. And with Florida having just the 73rd ranked rush defense, I think Evans can manage to do some damage. I still think that the Wolverines can win this outright but I’m not too confident given the pieces they are missing. If forced to pick, I’ll pick the Michigan Wolverines to beat the Florida Gators. However, I’ll take a look at the other bets first.
Florida was 8-4 ATS during the regular season and are 3-2 ATS in their last five games played. Michigan was an even 6-6 ATS in a dozen games played this season. The Wolverines are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played. Head to head, Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games played while the Wolverines are 2-3 ATS in their last five bowl games. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records. The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at a neutral venue. The Wolverines vaunted defense suffers a significant downgrade without its top two pass rushers. Their offense should also slow down without their top running back. I’m not giving the Gators free points here because of the personnel Michigan is missing. Prediction: Florida +6.5
The over was 7-4 in Florida’s games during the season. The total has gone over in six out of the Gators’ last seven games played. On the other hand, the O/U was 6-6 in 12 games played by the Wolverines this season. The total has gone under in three out of the last five games for Michigan. Head to head, the over is 4-0 in their last four meetings.
The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games of Florida with an average combined score of 58.86. On the other hand, the Wolverines are missing 13.5% of its offense without Kara Higdon but their defense also loses its edge without Bush and Gary. The Wolverines’ defense won’t stop the Gators here but the Wolverines should still be able to put up enough points to cover the spread . The over is 7-2 in Florida’s last nine games against the Big Ten and the over is 7-0 in Michigan’s last seven games against the SEC. Prediction: Over 51.
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