The Oakland Raiders head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Sunday 12/3018 at the latter’s Arrowhead Stadium.
The Raiders have nothing to play for here except pride and they can spoil the Chiefs’ season by knocking Kansas City on top of the leaderboard.
The Oakland Raiders look to play spoiler to the Chiefs on Sunday. The Raiders have split their last six games and are coming off what is arguably their best game of the season against the Denver Broncos. However, the Raiders are out of playoff contention at 4-11 on the season and they enter this game having lost six out of their last seven road games.
Derek Carr has completed 68.5% of his passes and has thrown for a total of 3,864 yards with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Carr has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in 10 out of his last 15 games played. Doug Martin leads the ground game for Oakland with 623 rushing yards and four scores.
The AFC West, a first round bye and home field advantage are on the line when the Chiefs host the Raiders on Sunday night. A win by Kansas City secures all three but a loss will complicate matters for the Chiefs, who have split their last six game but have won six out of their last seven games at home.
Patrick Mahomes is the leading candidate for MVP. The second year quarterback has thrown for 4,816 yards with 48 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in 10 out of his last 16 games played. With Kareem Hunt out, Mahomes leads the Chiefs with the most rushing yards this season at 271 with two touchdowns scored. Tyreek Hill has caught 82 passes for a total of 1,378 yards with 11 touchdowns passes caught.
Oakland is 4-15 SU in their last 19 games played. The Raiders are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road. The Chiefs are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. Kansas City is 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home. Head to head, the Chiefs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings against the Raiders.
The Raiders have struggled against the Chiefs and against the elite teams of the NFL. Oakland is 1-7 SU in their last eight games against Kansas City and they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. This game is a must-win for the Kansas City Chiefs because it may be the difference between playing two playoff games at home as the #1 seed in the AFC to playing three playoff games, two on the road, as the fifth seed. That’s how important this game is to them and for sure, they know that by heart.
Mahomes should pick the Raiders defense apart with his passing because Oakland gave up the most passing touchdowns (34) in the league this season. Mahomes also doesn’t have to be worried about getting sacked because the Raiders have the worst pass rush defense in the league. But while the Chiefs will score points, their defense isn’t going to stop the Raiders from scoring either. Kansas City allows 27.9 points per game 29th among 32 NFL teams and the Raiders will have the opportunity to hang around here. If Derek Carr gets going, then an upset is even possible.
All things considered, I still like the home team and the better team to win but it won’t be as lopsided as the oddsmakers are calling it. We’re picking the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Oakland Raiders on 12/30/18.
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. The Raiders are1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road. Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Head to head, Kansas City is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played.
The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records. The Chiefs meanwhile are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams from their division. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. The Raiders have also been outscored by an average of 15 points per game in their last four road games. But six out of Kansas City’s last eight games, win or lose, have been decided by seven points or less. I’m sure the Chiefs win but with the way they’ve played in their last six games, I’m not confident in giving the Raiders +13.5 points here. I’ll take the plus points and the underdog here. Prediction: Raiders +13.5
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Raiders. The over is also 4-2 in Oakland’s last six road games. On the other hand, the Chiefs have seen the over go 5-0 in their last five games. However, the total has gone under in 9 out of the last 12 home games of Kansas City. Head to head, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams and the under has hit in four out of the last five games between these teams in Kansas City.
The Raiders have shown that they still have some fight left in them. With Kansas City’s scoring defense fourth to the last in points allowed and the Chiefs ranked 2nd to the last in yards per game allowed, I expect Derek Carr to put some points on the board. Five out of Kansas City’s last seven games has produced a combined score higher than 52 points. I think this game easily breaches the over/under total set for this game. Prediction: Over 52
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