The moment has arrived.
The 2018-19 NBA Finals are here with the matchup being between the back-to-back defending champion Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors, a team who is making their first appearance in the Finals in franchise history. For the Warriors, this will also be their fourth straight appearance in the NBA Finals and their opportunity to win three titles in a row and four in five years — just incredible right there from Golden State.
Here on gameday, the Warriors are a heavy favorite on NBA betting sites with a number of -280. That’s a 350 point advantage that Golden State has over Toronto’s +230. Despite that, however, the Warriors are only a one-point favorite to defeat the Raptors in Game 1, and that’s most likely due to the homecourt advantage that Toronto has — keep an eye on that.
There’s also another reason why Golden State may just be a one-point favorite, and it’s a topic that has been hot entering the NBA Finals. I’m referring to the return of Kevin Durant from his calf injury. Durant’s injury obviously makes it a lot more balanced out for Kawhi Leonard and company. Even if he does return, how effective will he be? Durant would miss the entire Western Conference Finals against the Portland Trail Blazers because of this injury — even Steve Kerr admitted that the injury is worse than originally thought. It’s situations like this that can make betting extraordinarily fun. With superior firepower and homecourt advantage, the Raptors could definitely take advantage of this for an upset in Game 1, and Game 2 at that.
Another reason why this is such a key factor for Golden State is because this is the last series that they could have Kevin Durant. The result in these NBA Finals could change everything for both the future of Durant and the Warriors, especially after prior reports of Durant and Draymond Green fighting both on the court and behind the scenes — and KD being legacy driven. But expect Golden State to be in the hunt to re-sign Durant either way, general manager Bob Myers has already said the organization is completely committed to bringing him back.
With all that being said though, this could also explain why the Warriors are such big favorites to win the series despite only being a one-point favorite in Game 1. Even if Golden State is down 0-2 after the first two games of the Finals, they would head back to Oracle Arena in Oakland with a possible return of Durant in Game 3 (which is expected). If that happens, the Warriors could easily turn it on and sweep from there. It’ll be interesting to see the game odds when Durant returns from injury.
You’ll hear debates about Steph Curry, and even Kevin Durant despite his injury, about being the best player in the NBA Playoffs. However, you’ve got to give that honor to Kawhi Leonard. Throughout the playoffs, Leonard has tallied 31.2 points-per-game and he’s shooting an elite 50.7 FG% as well. Needless to say, the gamble that general manager Masai Ujiri made in the offseason trading DeMar DeRozan (now with the San Antonio Spurs) for Leonard has paid off tremendously, so tremendously that he just delivered the Toronto Raptors their first NBA Finals appearance. Remember, DeRozan was a big-time fan favorite, so this is a huge deal that Ujiri pulled this off. This could have been his job if it would have backfired.
Kawhi Leonard is also the reason why you shouldn’t count out the Toronto Raptors either. Leonard has years of experience in the Western Conference, and he’s historically played great basketball against the Warriors over the years. In his last 10 games against Golden State as a Spur, he’s averaged 23.2 points-per-game and has scored at least 20 in seven of them — this before he was a leader of a team like he is now with the Raptors. If he can continue the historic scoring streak that he’s on breaking the 30.0 PPG and 50 FG% thresholds, get help from his deep level of depth, and Toronto’s defense is on point like it has been, the Raptors could very well upset the Warriors to win the NBA championship.
If I asked you who had the deeper bench between the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors, who would you say? The Warriors? Well, you would be wrong.
Even though Golden State’s starting lineup is known to steamroll opposition, Toronto’s depth will be able to help their lineup keep up with the potency of the Warriors — this mainly thanks to solid production from the likes of Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet and Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference Finals. If they can continue that great team production from all-around, and they’ll need to against the loaded Warriors (with or without KD), they’ll give Golden State a scare for a possible upset.
The reason why the bench of the Raptors is such a threat to the Warriors is because of the level of talent that Toronto has — Golden State will be forced to sit players like Quinn Cook, Jordan Bell, and Alfonzo McKinnie and rely more on their all-stars. They’ll all be forced to play 40+ minutes in each game, and legs could get exhausted as a result. The Raptors may not have many edges over the Warriors overall, but they certainly have the advantage when it comes to depth. This will be a huge factor all throughout the NBA Finals.
Oh, what a magical series this could be. Don’t you feel the vibe already? The Finals are here.
When you look at the individual statistics, you see that the all-stars do their thing for the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry leads the team in scoring with a blazing 27.3 PPG, while Draymond Green leads the team in rebounding (7.3 RPG), assists (6.9 APG) and steals (1.4 STLPG). Kevin Durant leads the team in field goal percentage at 52.1 FG%, and also carries the torch on defense in the block category at 1.1 BLKPG. But here’s the thing, and something I can’t help but to point out about Golden State entering this year’s NBA Finals against Toronto’s potent offensive attack. Yeah, they handle their business just fine with an elite second-place tally in scoring with 117.7 PPG, and they’re first in assists with 29.4 APG, but on the defensive side, things get a bit shaky. On the rebounding end, they fall just below the top 10 with a number of 46.2 RPG — that places them 11th in the league. This will be a huge part of the game to keep an eye on with Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in the paint for Toronto.
And here’s the biggest concern for the Warriors entering the Finals: They’re actually just an average team on defense. That’s right, Golden State places just 16th in the NBA allowing a points total of 111.2 PA. That will have to be put under tremendous control against Kawhi Leonard and the rest of the Raptors offensive attack, which is lethal. When you look at the numbers, this is actually a huge challenge for the Golden State Warriors — should be interesting to say the least.
Leading the way for the Toronto Raptors is obviously Kawhi Leonard, he leads the team in scoring with an average of 26.6 PPG — he also leads the team in steals tallying 1.8 STLPG. With Leonard’s supporting cast, you have Serge Ibaka, who leads the team in rebounding with 8.1 RPG and he’s also delivering nightly block parties with 1.4 BLKPG. In ball movement, it’s, of course, Kyle Lowry leading the way for the Raptors with 8.7 APG, and Pascal Slakam leads Toronto in field goal percentage with 54.9 FG%. A lot of players involved, see what I mean? The Toronto Raptors are deep.
When you look at the collective statistics for the team, overall, the Raptors aren’t as lethal as the Warriors, but they still match up well with sold numbers. On the offensive attack, the Raptors have been potent this season, and it shows with a top 10 ranking in the league — they place themselves at No. 8 with an average of 114.4 PPG. They also deliver on the defensive side of the ball, locking down opposition to have them ranked ninth in the NBA. They’ve allowed 108.4 PPG to opponents this season. In assists, they fall back a little bit, but still crack the top 15 in 13th with 25.4 APG, and they decline a little further in rebounding in 17th with a number of 45.2 RPG. Still, the talent pool that Toronto has and those top 10 figures in scoring production and points allowed will certainly make it an interesting series for the Golden State Warriors.
Steph Curry is a pretty heavy favorite over second-place Kawhi Leonard, his -140 odds are 335 points over Leonard’s +275. And honestly, how could you bet against the two-time NBA Most Valuable Player? He’s had yet another elite season in the 2018-19 campaign. In the scoring department, Curry places himself in the top 10 (sixth) with a tally of 27.3 PPG. The numbers drop off a bit from there, at least in the rankings, because it’s still solid productivity. On the rebounding end, Curry has tallied 5.3 RPG which tallies 97th in the league, and he’s 37th in the NBA with 5.2 assists-per-game. Overall, that would calculate him a 24.45 PER for the regular season, which has him sitting 18th in the rankings. Curry has shown up in the postseason as well, tallying a stat line of 27.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.6 APG, actually doing better than the regular season. So, why wouldn’t you bet on Steph Curry to win the 2018-19 NBA Finals MVP?
The 27-year-old superstar has had a fabulous 2018-19 campaign, particularly in the scoring department. For the year, he would tally a steaming 26.6 PPG, which would put him seventh in the NBA rankings. His 7.3 RPG in the rebounding department cracked him in top 50 placing him in 50th, while Leonard’s 3.3 APG number has him 87th in the league. Obviously not elite numbers, but they’re still productive. Overall, those figures put Kawhi Leonard in the No. 13 position with the PER rankings, he has a total of 25.89. As far as the playoffs are concerned, Leonard has been absolutely unbelievable tallying the most elite numbers in scoring and also doing his thing in rebounding and ball movement. In points-per-game, Leonard tallies at 31.2 PPG, and it’s been off of incredible 50.7 FG% shooting — just wow. To add to those numbers would be productivity in the rebounding and assist categories, he would put up 8.8 RPG and 3.8 APG. If the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Finals, this is certainly your MVP.
If the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Finals, then it’ll most likely be Stephen Curry who wins the MVP, and that’s why Draymond Green comes in third with a very distant +850 odds. He’s had a solid year as far as productivity is concerned though — we won’t go over the rankings, however, they’re irrelevant for Green. In the scoring department, Green has tallied 7.4 PPG for the season and has added to the scoreboard through ball movement as well with a calculation of 6.9 APG. One of his most effective contributions is in the rebounding game, where he’s just 2.7 RPG away from the 10 thresholds at 7.3 RPG. Overall, those numbers have produced Green a PER of 12.88. Here in the postseason, Green has stepped up massively, nearly averaging a triple-double. Just check out the stat line yourself: 13.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 8.2 APG. Solid pick to make for the NBA Finals MVP with those numbers at +850 odds.
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