After missing out on the big dance, England and Belgium battle for the spoils as the two sides meet for the second time in the 2018 FIFA World Cup 3rd-place playoff at the Saint Petersburg Stadium on Saturday, July 14, 2018.
England and Belgium squared off in the group stages with Belgium winning that contest 1-0. Prior to that victory, Belgium had only won once over England in their last 21 matches. England won 15 of those matches, while the two squads figured in a draw on five instances.
Belgium’s win in the group stages of the current tournament was their first-ever World Cup triumph over England. England and Belgium have played twice before in the World Cup. They played to a 4-4 thriller in 1954, while England won 1-0 in extra time during the 1990 World Cup.
Saturday will mark the the first time two squads will play each other twice in the same World Cup since Brazil and Turkey did so at the 2002 World Cup. Both England and Belgium have played in this fixture before. England lost the 3rd-place playoff to host Italy in 1990, while France defeated Belgium for third place four year earlier.
England Predicted Line-Up: Butland, Cahill, Stones, Jones, Alexander-Arnold, Dier, Rose, Sterling, Loftus-Cheek, Vardy, Kane
Kieran Trippier is almost sure to miss England’s third-place playoff match against Belgium with an injury. Trippier has been in great form in Russia and scored the opening goal during England’s 1-2 semifinals loss to Croatia. But he limped off in the closing seconds of the game and will be replaced by Trent Alexander-Arnold in the 3rd-place game against Belgium.
With Gareth Southgate saying that he is determined to win the game, expect Harry Kane to feature in England’s final game as he chases the Golden Boot. After minor injuries, Kyle Walker and Jordan Henderson may not be risked in this matchup.
Belgium Predicted Line-Up: Courtois, Alderweireld, Vermaelen, Boyata, Meunier, Fellaini, Witsel, De Bruyne, Mertens, Batshuayi, Carrasco
Lukaku trails Kane by two goals in the Golden Boot race, but he could be rested if Martinez decides to repeat what he did when these two sides met during the group stages. Full back Thomas Meunier is back in the lineup after missing the semifinals with a suspension.
You could made an argument that Martinez wants to give his other players a chance, so if he does, then Adnan Januzaj – who scored his only goal of the tournament when these teams met previously – could be in line to start. The same argument can be made with Mertens, Carrasco, and Vermaelen.
As of July 13, 2018, Bovada listed Belgium as the favorite in this fixture at +120, while England came back at +220 with the draw pegged at +265. In the totals market, the over of three goals is priced at even money, while the under is currently at -120.
Belgium has lost just two of the 26 matches that they have played under manager Roberto Martinez. Their first loss came during his first game in charge, a 0-2 defeat to Spain in 2016. The second one happened when they lost to France 0-1 in the 2018 FIFA World Cup semifinals.
Belgium also has an extra day of rest since they played France one day before Croatia came from behind to beat England in extra time. But while common sense tells us that the well-rested team has the edge here, history says otherwise. Except for the 1994 World Cup where both semifinal games were played on the same date, the team which was coming off a longer rest is 1-5 in World Cup 3rd-place playoffs.
England came out of a two-hour war with Croatia on weary legs. Kieran Trippier, Ashley Young, and Jordan Henderson were taken out in extra time for one reason or another. Whether they’re hurt or not remains to be seen, but it surely opens the door for some rotation on the English side.
The entire English side is composed of Premier League players, while 11 players from the Belgian side are currently playing for Premier League teams. Twenty eight of these players played for Top 5 Premier League teams, with Tottenham having 8, Manchester City 6, Chelsea and Manchester United 5 each, and Liverpool 3.
Now, why did we point out the Premier League players? Well, we’d like to point out that some of the combatants in the 3rd-place playoff will be teammates in August when the commercial league begins. Having said that, this could easily become an all-star type of game. And we all know that in all-star games, it’s goals that come ahead of defense.
Prior to getting blanked by France in the semifinals, Belgium was a prolific goal-scoring team. They had scored 14 goals in 5 matches, including 5 in one game against Tunisia. Romelu Lukaku leads Belgium with a total of four goals scored. Lukaku trails England’s Harry Kane by two goals in the race for the Golden Boot. The Golden Boot battle between Kane and Lukaku could play a part in this fixture, as it could turn this to a scoring affair.
According to Bovada, Kane is currently a -700 favorite to win the Golden Boot, while Lukaku is a +1000 behind him. Kane’s 2-goal advantage is no small mountain to climb, but don’t count out the Belgian Beast just yet. But with the Golden Boot thing plus the all-star feel to this match, you’d believe that the even money on the over looks very attractive.
There isn’t much to play for in a 3rd-place playoff other than that it’s a consolation prize of sorts. Belgium is coming off a game where it was shut down by France, while England may still be hurting after becoming only the second team in the last 17 semifinals to blow a first-half lead. You’ve got to wonder how much fight is left in both teams.
Given that both squads are also battle-weary at this last stage of the tournament, maybe both managers will give their less-heralded players a chance to suit up. Or maybe the big league stars will try to outdo each other. Maybe it could turn out to be a showcase between Kane and Lukaku. Who knows?
This is a tough call, really, and maybe betting on the over would be a better option. Personally, that’s what I would do. But if I had to pick a winner, I’m going with Belgium. Sure, like England, they are hurting after missing a chance to play in the Finals. But the Belgians have never won third place before in a World Cup. The Golden Generation has not produced results. This isn’t the hardware they want, but third place is still a place in the podium. If there’s one team who wants the consolation prize more, it’s Belgium. We’re picking Belgium to beat England.
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