It has all come down to this. The 2018 FIFA World Cup culminates on July 15, 2018, with France taking on Croatia in the finals to be held at the Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow.
It will be the third World Cup finals appearance for France and the first for Croatia. France won in 1998 and lost in 2005 on penalties. Their 3 World Cup finals appearances are the most since 1998, with Brazil and Germany trailing them with 2. Croatia is the 13th nation to reach the World Cup finals and the 10th European country to do so. The previous two first-time finalists – France in 1998 and Spain in 2010 – won during their first attempt.
These teams have faced each other a total of five times. France won three of those meetings, and the other two ended in a draw. Two of those five encounters have been in a major tournament. France won 2-1 in the 1998 FIFA World Cup semifinals, while the two sides figured in a 2-2 draw during the group stages of the EURO 2004.
Let’s take a close look at the teams.
There are no suspensions from either side, and the French side has a healthy slate, so there won’t be any surprises in the line-ups. As for Croatia, there are some concerns over Ivan Strinic after he limped off the field following their win over England. Barring any major change, though, these should be the lineups for both squads.
Before the semifinals began, the French side was already the top favorite among the remaining four nations to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Based on Bovada’s July 9, 2018 odds, France was a +200 to win it all. Meanwhile, England was a +250, Belgium a +275, and Croatia at +450. But look who’s facing France in the finale.
Bovada’s July 13, 2018 odds have France listed as the favorite to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup Final at -110. That’s the chalkiest price for France since it closed as a -160 favorite against Peru on Matchday 2 of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Croatia is currently pegged at +360, its best underdog price since the start of the tournament. They were a +275 when they cashed in against Argentina on Matchday 2 of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
The oddsboard at Bovada also has a moneyline price of +230 for this match to end in a draw. France is also a -120 as half-goal favorites. On the other hand, Croatia is the half-goal underdog at even money. The total for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Final is 2 with the over at +110 and the under at -130.
France is looking to win its first World Cup since Zinedine Zidane led them to the land of promise in 1998. The team is coming off an impressive 1-0 win over the supposedly high-scoring Belgian side in the semifinals. What makes the French team even more impressive is the fact that they have achieved all of these without a single goal from striker Olivier Giroud.
Giroud has played all six matches for England and has started five of those. But despite over seven hours of playing time, Giroud has not had one shot on target. Of his total 13 shots in the entire tournament, 9 have been off the mark, and 4 have been blocked.
No question, Giroud has contributed to France’s success at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. He’s been working very hard off the ball, he has been pressing well in defense, and he has helped create space for his teammates. But those aren’t the primary jobs of a striker. His job is supposed to be to score goals, and Giroud hasn’t.
Good thing for France, Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann have made up for Giroud’s disappearing act. Entering the Finals, the 19-year-old Mbappe is the -110 odds-on favorite to win the Golden Ball as the most outstanding player of the tournament. On the other hand, Griezmann has been key to France in the knockout stages, as he’s scored or assisted in four out of their eight goals in the playoffs, including assisting on Samuel Umtiti’s game-winning goal against Belgium in the semifinals.
Mbappe and Griezmann lead the anytime goal scorer market at +190, while Giroud is a +225 in that category.
In the three-way moneyline, the draw has been Croatia’s calling card, as it has needed the extra time to win its three knockout-stage matches. The draw was a +215 against Denmark in the Round of 16. Croatia won that penalty shootout 3-2 behind the heroics of Danijel Subasic. Against Russia, the draw was a +210 when it cashed in. It was a +200 when Ivan Perisic found the back of the net as Croatia rallied from 0-1 down to advance to their first-ever FIFA World Cup finals appearance.
Croatia is only the second team in World Cup history to play three consecutive extra-time matches. The last team to do that was England in 1998. The Croatians are also the first team to come from behind three straight knockout-stage matches to reach the FIFA World Cup finals.
Croatia trailed England 0-1 at halftime. 17 of the previous 18 teams that led at the half of a FIFA World Cup semifinals game went on to advance to the Finals. Only Italy in 1990 had lost a FIFA World Cup semifinals game after leading at halftime. England has now joined the Italians in that forgettable list. Talk about the Croatians bucking the odds.
Four of the last six World Cup finals, including the last three, needed extra time to decide a winner. After Zinedine Zidane and Marco Materazzi scored in the first 20 minutes of the 2006 FIFA World Cup finals, France and Italy needed extra time to settle the outcome. Spain vs. Netherlands and Germany vs. Argentina were tied 0-0 in 2010 and 2014, respectively, through 90 minutes of play.
We talked about fatigue creeping in for Croatia because of the obvious, and after 45 minutes against England, it seemed like it. But whatever happened inside the dugout at halftime, Croatia came out playing like men on a mission and booked their seat in the finals. Croatia has proved that it has the heart of a champion. They will need to dig deep again against France to win their first-ever World Cup trophy.
One of the key components of France’s success in Russia has been their defense, particularly the handiwork of the French midfield duo of Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante while playing alongside the energetic Blaise Matuidi on the left. That trio combined for 11 tackles and 5 interceptions during the semifinals against Belgium. France became the first team to shut out the high-scoring Belgian side in Russia.
That French triumvirate will be vital to the success of France in the 2018 FIFA World Cup finals. That’s because Croatia has one of the strongest midfields in the tournament in Ivan Rakitic, Luka Modric, and Marcelo Brozovic. Barcelona starter Rakitic is a Champions League winner, while Modric is a contender for this year’s Ballon d’Or. Brozovic, the youngest of the three, will play with Inter Milan in the Champions League this year.
Croatia’s trio is key in putting the ball where the team can cause damage. French’s threesome will be tasked to stop their Croatian counterparts from influencing the match the way they did against England. If Pogba, Kante, and Matuidi can win the midfield war for France, they will also most likely win the World Cup trophy for their country, as France has the edge in the other departments.
This will be a close game, as neither squad will want to give up goals. But given the way the Croatians looked tired in the first 45 minutes against England, fatigue may be creeping in for real. And it’s not just fatigue. France also has the best shot at shutting down Croatia’s dreaded trio, and overall, they have better resources to win it all. Whichever way I look at it, France is going to beat Croatia and win the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
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