The group stages are over, and only 16 of the original 32 teams remain. The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia has certainly brought us plenty of surprises and exciting matches. Now it’s down to serious business as the knockout round begins.
Let’s take a look at the 8 matches, preview each game, take a look at the odds, and make our picks for your betting guidance.
Odds: France +138, Argentina +240, Draw +210
France and Argentina get the knockout rounds started in a fixture that could have been a worthy final in another draw. Argentina entered the knockout stages after a dramatic finish in round one. Argentina has advanced past the sweet 16 in four of the last five editions of the World Cup. Head to head, Argentina has six wins, three losses, and just two draws all-time against France in the World Cup. But this French team is unbeaten in its last seven games across all competition and has had just one defeat in its last 15 matches (including last year). The pressure is just too much for Argentina, and against a French side playing well under manager Didier Deschamps, it’s going to be very difficult. We’re picking France to beat Argentina.
Odds: Uruguay +175, Portugal +200, Draw +200
Uruguay breezed through the group stages with some incredible defending. Luis Suarez and company didn’t give up a single goal in three games. That defense will be tested against one of the all-time greats in Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo has scored four of Portugal’s five goals so far in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. But Portugal has struggled to find offense since their Day 1 classic against Spain. Meanwhile, Uruguay appears to be peaking at the right time. Not only have they won six in a row, but they have also kept a clean slate in those six games. The last time Uruguay lost was in November 2017 against Austria in an international friendly that did not have Suarez or Muslera. We’re picking Uruguay to win over Portugal.
Odds: Spain -175, Russia +600, Draw +300
This was supposed to be the worst Russian team to the World Cup in 40 years, but after winning their first two matches, they have proven their critics wrong. History is on the Russians’ side. Six of the last eight host nations have reached the quarterfinals round, with only South Africa in 2014 and the United States in 1994 failing to advance to the round of 8. Defense was supposed to be their calling card, but La Rojas allowed a combined five goals against Portugal and Morocco. Meanwhile, Iran had several good opportunities to score. Sure, Spain had mental lapses in the group stages, but they’ll definitely clean up their mistakes at the back. Meanwhile, the Russians are playing well in front of their countrymen, but Uruguay exposed them during their fixture. We’re picking Spain to win over Russia here.
Odds: Croatia -110, Denmark +375, Draw + 230
Croatia was one of the dark horses entering the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and their impressive showing in Russia has certainly justified that. They topped their group with three wins and were one of three teams to sweep their group stage matches. And don’t forget that they blanked Argentina 3-0. Denmark has the talented Christian Eriksen, while Yussuf Poulsen has caught attention after scoring the lone goal in their only win against Peru. But Croatia has looked superior so far. Their superstar trio of Perisic, Luka Modric, and Ivan Rakitic all have performed well so far in Russia and should give Croatia the advantage they need to beat Denmark. We’re picking Croatia to prevail over Denmark.
Odds: Brazil -200, Mexico +600, Draw +320
After their giant-killing win over defending champions Germany, Mexico got a scare against Sweden and was fortunate that Germany stumbled or else the Mexicans would have been out of the competition. Mexico has impressed so far, but their defense has some issues, and against a powerhouse like Brazil, that could get exposed pretty easily. Brazil hasn’t played to its true form yet in the tournament, but with the 2018 FIFA World Cup entering the knockout stages, expect the likes of Neymar, Willian, and Gabriel Jesus to step up their games. The Brazilians may miss Marcelo in this game due to injury, but that should not really matter because the Brazilian side is stacked with talent. I like Mexico, but Brazil has too much here. We’re picking Brazil to come out victorious against Mexico.
Odds: Belgium -250, Japan +675, Draw +340
You can make an argument that Belgium was the best team in the group stages, as it was one of only three teams to sweep their first-round assignments. Belgium was also the top-scoring team with 9 total goals in the group stages. While many of the teams at the 2018 FIFA World Cup have one or two players who can make a difference for them, Belgium has so many weapons who can find the back of the net. In fact, five of the players on this team have double-digit international goals. You’ve got to give it to Japan. They came to Russia with a recent coaching change, but they’ve managed to reach the round of 16 for the third time in their last five appearances. Japan’s offense has shown improvement, and the key to their campaign here in Russia has been controlling the possession arrow. Against Belgium, though, they seem overmatched. We’re picking Belgium to beat Japan here.
Odds: Sweden +210, Switzerland +175, Draw +190
Sweden enters this match-up as the winners of Group F, the bracket where the defending champion Germany was eliminated from. They finished the group stages with 6 points, thanks to their 3-0 win over Mexico during their final matchup on Wednesday. Sweden broke from a 0-0 tie in the 50th minute and poured it on El Triple. Meanwhile, Switzerland finished second in their group unbeaten in three fixtures. They entered the knockout stage following a 2-2 tie with bottom team Costa Rica. The Swiss were up 2-1 in that match when a penalty shot by Costa Rica’s Bryan Ruiz bounced off the back of Swiss goalkeeper Yann Sommer and ended up at the back of the net as Costa Rica equalized. Among all the quarterfinal matches, this one looks like the most competitive. It could very well go to extra time and even penalty. This should be a defensive battle from start to finish. We’re going with a draw here.
Odds: Colombia +205, England +105, Draw +200
After disappointing with a loss to Japan in their opening match, dark horse Colombia was able to find their footing and won two in a row to advance to the round of 16. But while the Colombians are happy to be through to the next round, they may be without star James Rodriguez, who may be unavailable in this knockout fixture. England finished second in Group G, but they will need to recover their scoring touch to move forward here. The Britons were on top of the standings when they faced Belgium in their final group stage match. Although they said they wanted to win that one, it very obvious that they played it safe, knowing they already qualified for the knockout phase. While Colombia is worried about Rodriguez’s possible absence, the Englishmen have a fully healthy squad to win this match-up. We’re picking England to win this contest.
Here are the complete odds for the 16 teams which remain in contention to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup:
*Odds as of Betway June 29, 2018
South American superpower Brazil was the favorite coming into the tournament, and after the dust settled in the group stages, the Brazilians are still the team to beat at +350. With seven points, Brazil finished the group stages on top of a tough bunch that included Costa Rica, Serbia, and Switzerland.
Three countries finished round one with a clean slate. Belgium, Croatia, and Uruguay topped their respective brackets and wound up with the highest possible nine points. As of the latest odds at Bovada (dated June 29, 2018), Belgium ranks third among favorites at +600 behind Spain, who is at +450.
Uruguay finished the group stages without yielding a single goal. Meanwhile, it was Belgium who topped the scoring department in round one with a total of nine goals. Host Russia, who is having a Cinderella run, ranks second to Belgium with their eight total goals scored in the first round.
The Spaniards avoided what has been coined as the “half of death,” as their 5 points were lucky enough to seal the top spot in Group B. In doing so, Spain avoided a match-up against Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, France, Portugal, or Mexico before the World Cup Finals. That means that Spain will only have two of the top 8 odds-on favorites on their half.
On the other half of the bracket, the favorites will have to outdo each other. The round of 16 begins with a Luis Suarez vs. Cristiano Ronaldo battle as Uruguay takes on Portugal. Likewise, Antoine Griezmann duels Lionel Messi during the France versus Argentina match. Brazil will take on giant-killer Mexico, whose opening-game upset of Germany eventually led to the early exit of the defending champions.
Spain will have to deal with the hosts in their first assignment. But theoretically, they have the easier route to the final. We still think that Brazil has the best squad out there, and as such, the players will pull them through despite the tough schedule. We’re still picking Brazil to go all the way.
We’re picking Brazil to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
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