This is the 8th meeting between England and Croatia, with England winning four matches, Croatia victorious in two, and the two squads figuring in a draw once. This semifinal encounter is slated on Wednesday, and it’s interesting to note that six of their previous seven meetings were also played on Wednesdays.
England and Croatia have met only once before in a major football tournament. This was at the Euro 2004 where England beat Croatia 4-2 in a group stage match. Head to head, England and Croatia have not met since the World Cup 2010 qualifiers in South Africa in 2009. These sides met twice during those qualifiers, with England coming out victorious on both occasions and with an aggregate score of 9-2.
This will be England’s third appearance in a World Cup semifinal. They beat Portugal 2-1 on their way to winning the 1966 World Cup and lost to Germany on penalties in 1990. This is the first time that they’ve advanced past the quarterfinals since 1996. Croatia, who only became eligible for the World Cup in 1994, is looking to book its first-ever appearance in a World Cup final.
Let’s take a look at the two teams.
Gareth Southgate has stuck with one team selection and formation during the entire tournament, and he is expected to do the same against Croatia. England has avoided the injury bug at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, although Dele Alli’s health has been questioned throughout the tournament.
Barring any unexpected (fingers crossed) incident during training, though, Alli is expected to start behind superstar forward Harry Kane. Ashley Young also had an injury scare prior to the quarterfinals, but he came through unscathed against Sweden.
Right back Sime Vrsaljko is a doubtful starter after walking off with a limp after Croatia’s quarterfinal win over Russia. However, team manager Zlatko Dalic hopes that Vrsaljko’s knee injury isn’t that serious. But if indeed he misses this match, Tin Jedvaj or Vedran Corluka could take over for the Atletico Madrid man.
There is also some degree of worry over goalkeeper Danijel Subasic, whose hamstring problem was aggravated in the final minute of normal time against Russia. Subasic, however, played on and was the hero for Croatia during the penalty shootout. If Subasic won’t be a go, backup stopper Lovre Kalinic should get the call.
England is the +130 favorite in this semifinal matchup with Croatia as the underdog at +250 and a draw at +220 according to Bovada odds as of July 10, 2018. The Three Lions carved out a 2-0 win over Sweden in the quarterfinals to book their first semifinals seat in 28 years. They finished second to Belgium in the group stages and defeated Colombia on penalty kicks after allowing stoppage time tally.
The Three Lions have been solid in Russia, as they have not conceded more than one goal in any of their games in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. But the big story for England has been Harry Kane, whose six goals so far are the most by any Englishman since Gary Lineker scored six goals in 1986. Kane is a -700 favorite at Bovada to win the Golden Boot award as the tournament’s top goal scorer. He is also a +350 co-favorite, along with France’s 19-year-old Kylian Mbappe, to win the Golden Ball as the most outstanding player of the tournament.
If England is to advance to the finals, they would need Kane to deliver for them, on the scoresheet or by opening up opportunities for his teammates to score. As with their victory in Sweden, Kane didn’t score a single game, but his hold-up play was excellent, and it had a huge impact for England.
One surprise for England, though, is its inability to score from open play in this tournament. Despite many terrific scoring chances, England hasn’t been able to capitalize. Manchester City forward Raheem Sterling hasn’t been able to score a single goal in the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
Croatia has needed penalties to decide their last two matches. After surviving Denmark on penalty kicks in the Round of 16, Croatia pulled off a thrilling quarterfinals victory over the hosts on penalty kicks. Croatia had taken a 2-1 lead over Russia in extra period, but the crowd rallied the host nation to a penalty shootout. Unfortunately for the Russians, Croatia’s goalkeeper Danijel Subasic saved them for the second straight game.
The Croatians have developed some chemistry in their midfield. Ivan Rakitic and Luka Modric have been two of the best in the tournament. If Croatia wins the battle of midfield and is able to limit Harry Kane’s impact on the game, England could get frustrated. Rakitic and Modric will be Croatia’s key against England.
If the Blazers score first, this could turn out to be like Croatia’s game against Argentina. England is the first attacking side that the Croatians have faced since Argentina, and if Croatia has its way, the results will likely be the same.
England and Croatia have played six times since 2003, and both teams have combined to average 4.7 goals in those six games. Five of those six games have seen at least a combined five goals between the two sides. In four of those games, the winner has scored at least four goals. Having said that, the odds over OVER 2 goals cannot simply be ignored, even if there are only a combined two holdover players from their last encounter.
The Total betting has a -115 price for OVER 2, so if you can’t pick a side to back here, betting on that may be the best choice for you. Aside from the information we mentioned above, it’s also worth noting that nine of the total ten combined matches that these two teams have played had at least two goals scored, so you might want to look into that.
Croatia is unbeaten in nine straight World Cup matches, including the qualifiers. The last time they lost was way back in 2017 when they dropped a 1-0 contest in Turkey.
Croatia should have the advantage if this goes down to a penalty shootout. That’s because during their two shootout wins in this tournament, goalkeeper Danijel Subasic has saved four penalties for the Croatian side. No other goalkeeper has stopped that many penalties at any World Cup. If you have to pick between Subasic and Pickford, you’ve got to go with Subasic, no doubt.
Despite coming through two extra time periods and penalty shootouts, Croatia’s coach insists that his team “still has plenty of energy.” However, despite that proclamation, his team could very well be fatigued. England has played as many games, but after the relatively easy win over unimpressive Sweden, they are without doubt the “fresher” team. Because of that, you’ve got to like their chances better.
If this were an opening-round match, it would be nice to back Croatia. But we’re deep in the trenches, and the Croatians are battle weary. Talent-wise, you can argue that they can still raise the level of their game, especially in a historic match for their country. But given the path they’ve trekked to get here, the energy level may not be up there because of fatigue level. They’re facing a younger and more talented England squad which may be fresher and healthier. England is the favorite here, and we’re picking them to beat Croatia in this semifinal match-up..
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
