After a one year absence from the championship, the German Grand Prix returns to the scene on July 22, 2018 at the Hockenheimring in Hockenheim, Germany. This year’s race is the 78ths installment of the German Grand Prix and it represents the 11th leg of the 2018 FIA Formula 1 World Championship and 63rd time that it has been included as a round in the championships.
The first Hockenheim circuit was built in 1939 as a test track for Mercedes Benz who back then, were looking for a track to test for the Tripoli Grand Prix. The current Hockenheim circuit was built when Germany’s Autobahn highway system was created. The new circuit has been proven to be good for racing and has the potential for great wheel to wheel racing. With the Drivers Championship duel between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel heating up, the season’s halfway point looks to provide plenty of excitement.
Despite losing the last two races, Lewis Hamilton is the odds on favorite to win the 2018 German Grand Prix at +135. Not only did the Englishman won the last race here in 2016 but at 121, he also has led more laps here than any other active driver with Fernando Alonso coming in at second with 117. Hamilton has won this race thrice already and a victory at Hockenheim on Sunday will put him in a tie with the legendary Michael Schumacher for most wins here with four.
Following Sebastian Vettel’s victory at the 2018 British Grand Prix, Ferrari has the momentum heading to this weekend’s race. Scuderia has triumphed 21 times at the German Grand Prix and 11 of those have come at Hockenheim. They have also recorded the last three one-two finishes at this race track in 1999, 2006 and 2010.
Vettel comes in second at +135 in the oddsboard but he hasn’t had success in front of his home crowd. This is as close as home court can be for the Ferrari ace as this track is just 28 miles from Vettel’s hometown of Heppenheim but he has yet to stand on top of the Hockenheim podium. Vettel has won this race once before but in Nurburgring but he has never had a top two finish in Hockenheim.
Hamilton’s Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas comes in at third with his +750 odds. Botas though only has four podium finishes in 2018, all of them second place. He’s only taken the podium once in Hockenheim and that was in 2014 when he finished in second place.
Red Bull’s tandem of Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo are next at +900 and +1000, respectively. Red Bull has won this race twice but both triumphs were in Nurburgring which hosts this race alternately with Hockenheim in 2017. Red Bulls had a fantastic run in 2016 when Ricciardo and Verstappen finished second and third in what was their only double podium finish of 2017.
Here are the complete odds for the 2018 German Grand Prix. Odds were taken from Bovada as of July 19, 2018:
The Pole Positions have been very predictable with Hamilton and Vettel owning the front grid for most of the 2018. After 10 races, Hamilton and Vettel have dominated with four poles each while Bottas and Daniel Ricciardo have one apiece. For this weekend, Hamilton tops the list at +110 while Vettel is close behind at +120. Their closest rival for this side bet is Bottas who is at +650.
We feel this is a toss-up between Hamilton and Vettel but Vettel has a slight plus so that should come into play here. But with Hamilton eager to chase his rival in the Drivers standing and looking to avenge his defeat at Silverstone, expect Hamilton to rise to the occasion. Hamilton also took pole position at the 2018 British Grand Prix. We’re going with Lewis Hamilton to bag pole position.
Similarly, Hamilton is also the betting favorite to record the fastest lap at +300. Teammate Bottas is tied with Hamilton also at +300 while Ricciardo is in third spot at +350. Vettel owned the fastest lap at Silverstone and he is a +500 in Hockenheim.
Momentum, home court advantage and plus money are in favor of Sebastian Vettel but my gut feel is that Daniel Ricciardo, who enjoyed a series of fastest laps early in the season, is going to deliver a profit in that particular market. We’re going with Daniel Ricciardo to post the fastest lap at Hockenheim.
Just as in the previous races, the bookies have this as a two-man race between chief rivals Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel. Now Vettel comes top of mind because of his recent win at Silverstone and the fact that he will be racing on his home turf in Germany.
But Vettel’s victory at Silverstone is proof that there is no such thing as home court advantage in Formula 1. He may be more familiar with the track than anyone else and he may have a boisterous crowd behind him but those won’t be enough. Between Vettel’s poor performance on home soil and Lewis Hamilton’s success at the German Grand Prix, we’re going with the latter.
Sure, we’ve often picked Lewis Hamilton as race winner for most of the races this season and yes, he’s often let us down. But it’s interesting to note that Hamilton has only been off the podium in three of the 10 races in 2018 and he is the defending champion in this race. Also, Hamilton may have lost to Vettel the last time out but he finished strong at Silverstone by rallying from last place to finish second.
Vettel has taken an eight point lead in the Drivers standings. We expect Hamilton to respond with victory at Hockenheim on Sunday.
We’re picking with Lewis Hamilton to win the 2018 German Grand Prix.
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