ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Betting Preview

We’ve already broke down the matchup in the National League Championship Series (NLCS) between the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals, and with Game 1 of that series in the books, it’s time to move on to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Who will reign supreme in a best-of-seven series in this battle of powerhouses?

Game 1 of the ALCS between the Astros and Yankees takes place on Saturday, October 12, and first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 PM ET. You can watch the game via national television on FOX. Zack Greinke will be on the mound for Houston, while Mashiro Tanaka will be pitching for New York. Game 2 is Sunday, October 13 at 8:08 PM ET, while the series heads to the Bronx for Game 3 on Tuesday, October 15 at 4:08 PM ET.

Houston comes into the series with homefield advantage, as well as the leverage in the betting odds. According to online sportsbook Bovada, the Astros are placed as a -170 heavy favorite, while New York comes in as a +130 distant underdog.

After you read and get your advice from me regarding the ALCS between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, you can then place your bets over at one of the top baseball betting sites for who you think will be advancing to the World Series out of the American League.

The Year of the Underdog, Well, at Least in the National League

Both Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch and New York Yankees head Aaron Boone would have opportunities to talk to the press on Friday, and would take advantage to announce their pitching plans for the series. Now they haven’t announced what the plans will be for the whole way through, but they would let us know what they were going to do for Games 1, 2 and 3 in the ALCS.

For the Game 1 matchup, the Astros will be turning to one of their aces in Zack Greinke, while Boone and the Yankees will be handing the ball to Masahiro Tanaka. For Tanaka, he’s been inconsistent in past years, having some ups and having some downs. However, Tanaka was on fire in the American League Divisional Series (ALDS) against the Minnesota Twins. In five innings of action, he would allow just one run and one walk while tallying up seven strikeouts. On top of that, he has a career 1.58 ERA in the postseason. Not too shabby.

With Greinke, this series is exactly the reason why Houston would go out and land him. With that being said, however, Greinke was pretty dismal in the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays — he would collect a 14.73 ERA and pitched just 3.2 innings. But this is still Zack Greinke that we’re talking about, one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball today and someone who Hinch, I’m sure, has no problem trusting. Don’t be surprised to see a recovery from Greinke Saturday night against that Yankees lineup, especially considering he would record a 2.13 ERA against them this season with a 0.87 WHIP in 12.2 innings.

In Game 2, that’s when we’ll get a heavyweight matchup between the team’s best starting pitchers. For the Astros, they’ll have Justin Verlander on tap, while James Paxton will be on the mound for New York, who would collect eight strikeouts in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, three runs and one walk against the Twins. Against the Astros this season, Paxton would go 1-1 with a hefty 6.00 ERA.

For Game 3, the first contest at Yankee Stadium, it’ll be Gerrit Cole up next for Houston, while Luis Severino will square off against him for the Yankees. It’s quite obvious that the Astros completely overpower New York when it comes to pitching, but with that being said, the Yankees certainly have the staff to hold their own and compete.

“It’s tough to get good hitters out than not as good hitters,” said Zack Greinke to reporters, and I’m sure all of the previously-mentioned six pitchers have that same mindset. Things are going to be extraordinarily tough on them, no matter how talented they are, because both the starting lineups, as well as benches, of the Astros and Yankees are loaded with talented hitting.

All of this is also going to make things very fascinating for Game 4. After their top three starters, neither club has a clear choice of who they could have as a reliable option as a postseason starter.

For Houston, they could rock with Jose Urquidy, but it’s a bit risky, and the Astros will certainly have him on a tight leash with multiple relief pitchers being used in the process. For the Yankees, they may be able to get some distance out of either Jonathan Loaisiga or Luis Cessa, hell, they could even use both. The most likely scenario though will be them working their bullpen, especially with the AL pennant and a World Series appearance at stake.

Save Us: Astros and Yankees Both Have Relief Pitching

We’ve all been hearing about it for quite some time, so I’m sure you’re aware, but nothing has changed regarding the fact that the New York Yankees have a great bullpen. However, coming into this matchup against the Houston Astros, they actually have the lesser staff of relief pitchers. During the regular season, the Astros would compile a 3.75 ERA, which would rank second in Major League Baseball. For the Yankees, they came in ninth with a 4.08 ERA.

Houston have pitchers such as Josh James and Wade Miley in their bullpen who can only relieve their starters, but they can also chew up a solid amount of innings. On top of that, they’ve also got Will Harris setting things up for Roberto Osuna to close things out. New York mirrors that setup, having J.A. Happ and Chad Green able to go long distances, while Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton sets things up for Aroldis Chapman for the save.

Overall, the Yankees have more arms of quality, but if their starting pitchers aren’t on their best game, their bullpen will only take them so far. Going by the ERA, the Astros have the advantage here, so the starting pitching is vital for the Yankees in order to compete with the loaded pitching of Houston.

The New MO-Town?: New York Produces Hits

Going by their recent performances in the ALDS, you certainly have to view the New York Yankees as the better offensive team. Some statistics that stuck out was Gleyber Torres and his team-high OPS of 1.378, while Didi Gregorius wasn’t far behind at 1.200. Their sluggers in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton didn’t do much in the series, but that was because the Minnesota Twins wouldn’t pitch to them. In three games, they would draw four walks, so there weren’t many opportunities for them to do anything.

For the Houston Astros, they would pull in excellent results from Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez against the Tampa Bay Rays. For Altuve, he would record a 1.281 OPS, while Bregman would tally at 1.097 and Alvarez at .824. They wouldn’t get much production from other key players such as Carlos Correa and Josh Reddick, however. For Correa, he was dismal batting 3-for-19, and Reddick wasn’t much better going 1-for-10.

After we saw the struggles against Tampa Bay, the Astros are going to need the whole team to be effective in order to take out the Yankees and the homerun power in their lineup. You’ve definitely got to give New York the advantage in this category.

2019 Head-To-Head: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Throughout the season, the Houston Astros and New York Yankees have played each other a total of seven times, and it was a pretty competitive series with the Astros squeaking out the 4-3 win. When the two clubs would meet up before we got to the All-Star break, both teams were having some serious issues with injuries. But nowhere in the ALCS, we get the best of Houston and New York, with both completely healthy — lucky them, and us for that matter.

The Astros and Yankees would also meet up two years ago in the 2017 playoffs, but since then, both of their rosters have changed up massively. With that being the case, we won’t be able to use that series to assist us with betting on the 2019 ALCS. However, the home team would win every game in that series, so take that for what it’s worth.

Here are the biggest factors that I see at play here though with New York and Houston, and both involves their pitching.

• With the Astros, it’s been their dominant starting pitching that has gotten them to this point in the ALCS,
• While for the Yankees, they’ve been able to lock up victories using their elite bullpen.

So, this series will come down to what club can contain the loaded hitting the best. And boy, is the hitting loaded from both teams. Oh, the entertainment value.

And Your Winner Is…

If the Houston Astros can achieve a World Series championship this season, they could become THE ball club in debates regarding who is “the best team in this decade.” For the New York Yankees, they’re currently on a 10-year drought without a World Series, and are looking to erase that feat to bring back the pinstripe glory. Needless to say, there’s a ton at stake for both teams here in the ALCS, and the Houston Astros already have the upper hand having the home field advantage — a great leverage in postseason baseball.

On the offensive side of things, the Yankees can pretty much do what they want. Not only is their starting lineup talented, but they also have deep depth to go along with it. The Astros are loaded with hitters as well, but when in comparison, New York has the advantage here. Switching to the defensive side of the ball, both clubs are riddled with gold glovers all across their lineup, but you have to give Houston the leverage in this category. Not only is their infield tight, but they also have one of the best outfields in baseball.

The Yankees couldn’t have made a better choice than Aaron Boone as their manager. Not only is he a super-likeable guy, but he’s one hell of a skipper as well leading New York to two consecutive 100-win seasons. Boone may have been getting some negative press in the past regarding his choices involving the bullpen, but there’s no denying what he’s done as the manager of the Yankees.

With that being said though, you’ve got to give the Astros the edge when it comes to management as well. AJ Hinch already has a championship ring leading Houston to a World Series title back in 2017, and on top of that, he’s headed to his third consecutive ALCS. Also to his credit, he’s huge into analytics and makes it work to a T, and he knows how to drain as much effectiveness out of his team as possible I love Boone, but you’ve got to side with Hinch on this one.

For the New York Yankees, the only real advantage they have in this matchup is with hitting. Yeah, the Yankees could out-slug their way to a series victory over the Astros, but can they get past that elite pitching? If anybody can do it, it’s New York, but man, I just see it extraordinarily tough for them to get past the trio of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Grienke. Yeah, good luck with that one. Give me the Houston Astros in a very, very competitive seven games.

BETTING PREDICTION: Houston Astros (-170)