Justin Trudeau’s odds were already dropping before, but after his scandals involving both black and brownface have turned into an outright media circus, his odds have dropped even more to win the 2019 Canadian Prime Minister Federal Election — obviously, Trudeau is the current PM of Canada and going for re-election, which is being held on October 21.
In the process of him on the decline, however, conservative Andrew Scheer is on the rise going from -110 to -125 in a flat week, and not just that, but he’s actually the favorite over Trudeau. Speaking of the current prime minister, he’s currently set at +110 and has managed to stay there despite the latest mess with his campaign.
As far as the rest of the odds are concerned according to online sportsbook BetOnline, Jagmeet Singh (New Democratic Party) is placed in third with +1200 odds, which has been a constant back and forth for him between that figure and +900. In the No. 4 spot, Elizabeth May (Green Party of Canada) has been on the steady up-and-up going from +10000 to +3300 between July and now. Rounding out the top five, Maxime Bernier (People’s Party of Canada) definitely shot up, going from +50000 to +3300. But let’s be honest here: At this point, it’s just a two-man race between Justin Trudeau (Liberal Party) and Andrew Scheer (Conservative Party).
As far as Trudeau’s campaign is concerned, it’s technically survived the black and brownface fiasco for the most part, but it has pushed him to second place behind Scheer with the oddsmakers seeing no re-election taking place. As you see, the closest competition after that in Singh has dipped 300 points, while May and Bernier are certainly no threat.
Let’s get to know the five candidates a little deeper though, eh? (As the Canadians say.) And then afterwards, we’re going to over some of the latest news reports out of Canada regarding their prime minister federal election.
Since 2004, Andrew Scheer has been serving in the Canadian Parliament as an MP (Member of Parliament) representing the riding of Regina-Qu’Appelle. In 2017, that’s when he would take a promotion to become Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Official Opposition. What makes Scheer such a threat to Justin Trudeau is not only is he the opposing wing of choice, but he also has youth like Trudeau has as well — in fact, he’s younger, seven years younger at 40. Serving in politics for 15 years now, he was elected as an MP at 25 years old and was also the youngest ever to become the Speaker of the House of Commons at 32 before becoming Leader of the Conservative Party. As far as Scheer’s policies are concerned, he’s mainly focused on the issue of consistently developing the economy, conserving the tax dollar and decreasing wasteful spending. On top of that, he also has a focus in balancing the nation’s budget, and an interesting one: Wanting to allow Canada’s airline industry to compete globally.
Justin Trudeau is the incumbent competing for re-election, coming in as the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada since 2015 — he has also been Leader of the Liberal Party since 2013. Going back to youth, Trudeau is the second youngest prime minister in Canadian history behind Joe Clark. Trudeau also has politics in his blood, being the oldest son of Pierre Trudeau who was also the Prime Minister of Canada. If you’re not aware, Trudeau has actually had an interesting past on his way to the PM. Here’s just a list of what he would do before he would get into public service in 2008: College at Jean-de Brebeuf (student, no Graduation), McGill University (student, graduated), University of British Columbia (student, graduated), teacher, back to school at Ecole Polytechnique (student, dropped out), back to McGill University (student, dropped out), nightclub bouncer, camp counselor and snowboard instructor. As you see, there isn’t much consistency with Trudeau, so you shouldn’t be shocked to see inconsistency in the odds.
Originally starting out his career as a lawyer, Jagmeet Singh has been Leader of the New Democratic Party since 2017. Singh would also become a Member of Parliament (MP) in 2019 representing the riding of Burnaby South. Before he would get into the federal Canadian Parliament, he would serve as an Ontario New Democratic Party Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) from 2011-2017, and would represent Bramalea-Gore-Malton in his post. When elected as Leader of the New Democratic Party, Singh had actually became the first visible minority to lead a major political party in Canada, and do it permanently. Making history in another area, Singh is also the first Sikh to wear a turban while sitting as a provincial legislator in Ontario. Another thing that draws voters to Singh is his sense of style with fashion and the way he dresses, especially among young people. Ideologically, Singh has both progressive politics and considers himself to be a social democrat, and supports policies such as raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour, decriminalizing drugs and higher taxes for the rich.
Since 2006, Elizabeth May has been serving as Leader of the Green Party of Canada, while also being a Member of Parliament (MP) since 2011 representing Saanich-Gulf Islands. Before getting into politics, May would be a lawyer, author, environmentalist, and activist, and would also be the Executive Director of the Sierra Club of Canada that ranged from 1989-2006. Like Jagmeet Singh, May would make history as a minority herself, by leading a major political party as a female and doing it for the longest tenure in Canadian history. Her career would begin in 2006 when she would resign from the Sierra Club to become Leader of the Green Party of Canada and would claim victory on the very first ballot with a voting total of 66%. She would again make history in 2011, this time for the Green Party of Canada, becoming the first member from the party to get elected as an MP (Saanich-Gulf Islands). Though it may not reflect in the Canadian polls, May is popular among her fellow MPs, the United Nations and multiple publications such as Newsweek and Globe and Mall.
A businessman and lawyer, Maxime Bernier is the founder and Leader of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), which would eventually lead him to getting elected in 2006 as a Member of Parliament (MP) representing Beauce. His election would lead to other posts as well, such as him being the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism (now known as the Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism and Agriculture) and Minister of Industry. After the 2015 election when the Conservative Party would suffer defeat, he would then be the opposition critic for Innovation Science and Economic Development in shadow cabinets. Bernier could have easily been in the position of Andrew Scheer, as he would originally run for Leader of the Conservative Party and nearly won with 49% of the voting tally in round 13 — Bernier was originally leading Scheer in the first 12 rounds. After his loss, that’s when he would then leave the Conservatives to launch his own party: People’s Party of Canada.
We obviously have to start out with Justin Trudeau’s fiasco involving both black and brownface, which has hit Trudeau’s chances for re-election hard — they were already shaky before that. September 11 would be when Trudeau would officially announce his campaign, and it didn’t take long for three photos and one video to leak out showing a younger version of him in costumes and makeup of him dressed as Arabic and African. When Trudeau was asked about this issue, he would then apologize and give a cringe-worthy explanation of why he did it. Oh, and he would also say that he doesn’t know how many times that he’s done this throughout his history. It was pretty bad for the Trudeau campaign, and now you see even further of why there’s a decline.
As you just read, the people who believe that climate change is a thing are turning on Justin Trudeau, but it isn’t just them. It’s the people who aren’t going for the climate change narrative as well. Neither side is a fan of the current prime minister, which spells disaster for his campaign. In particular, Canadian voters in the areas of Alberta, Saskatchewan and some parts of British Columbia (where the majority don’t believe in climate change) are expected to come out in full force for the Conservative Party. It remains to be seen if this will spread throughout Canada, but right now, the people in those areas are “angry” and feel “alienated.”
Just check out some of the quotes from these people, courtesy of Global News in Canada: “I’ve honestly never felt so… not even under-appreciated, just like completely ignored. It seems like like any time we, you know, say something, we just get labelled as racists, as bigots.”
And another one: “I’ve just never been so frustrated with the government in my entire life.” With people feeling this passionate and “alienated” (which is a pretty strong word), Justin Trudeau’s re-election campaign is drenched in acid rain at this point.
As if the poll numbers haven’t been bad enough for the People’s Party of Canada and their leader Maxime Bernier, things got a bit worse for the party recently when a candidate representing the brand would step down from his campaign. The reason: He doesn’t agree with the party’s “values.” Chad Hudson, the candidate, wouldn’t get specific, but he would say that he has found “recent information” involving the PPC brand and their “values and the choices its leadership have made.” As far as Bernier is concerned, he’s mainly known as a mainstream libertarian and he would even run under the Conservative Party — even running for the party’s leadership at one time. So again, it’s unclear what Hudson may be talking about, other than maybe members’ rhetoric against “mass immigration” and also Hudson’s personal stance on climate change: “Any politician who chooses to ignore climate change in their campaigning will pay the price.”
According to an Ipsos poll, 11% of voters still remain undecided about who they want the prime minister to be with the election just under a month away. That means the polling company would find that out of all of the eligible voters in the country of Canada, one in ten have no idea who they will be pulling the lever for. When you break down the math, that means a total of roughly 2,792,471 votes are still up for grabs, which means the election is still pretty tense between Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau in particular with the number of votes that can be gained, as well as votes that can still manage to be flipped late. So with that being said, even though Scheer is the current favorite in the polls and the betting odds, Justin Trudeau still has a chance — at least mathematically. I personally wouldn’t bet on that though.
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