Categories: AllSoccer

MLS Cup Playoffs Betting Preview and Predictions

The regular season has officially been wrapped up for Major League Soccer (MLS) and now we’re just days away from the beginning of the 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs, which kicks off on Saturday, October 19.

Before we would get to this point, it’s been Los Angeles FC who has been absolutely tearing it up and breaking records en route to their success. One of them would be setting the all-time regular season points record after getting a flashy 3-1 win over the Colorado Rapids on Decision Day — and none of it has been surprising. Before the season started, LAFC were the favorites to take the crown, and it’s been like that throughout the entire campaign. Now that we enter the playoffs, their favorite status remains the same in sportsbooks across the country.

According to online sportsbook Bovada, Los Angeles FC enters as the odds-on favorite at +150, and they’re quite distant from the rest of the competition at that towering over New York City FC’s +500 in second place. In third place comes Atlanta United and their +800 figure, followed by a fourth-place tie to round out the top five between Philadelphia Union and Seattle Sounders at +1400. Kicking off the rest of the top 10 is Minnesota United in the No. 6 position at +1800 odds, with the LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls in a seventh place tie at +2000. And to end things off for us is another tie, this time for ninth between DC United, Real Salt Lake and Toronto FC at +2500.

Who do you think will be holding the crown at the end of the 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs? After you read and get your advice/predictions from me, you can then place your bets for who you think will be the champions, and if you need any help check our MLS betting guide here.

Going Back to LAFC

Their top finish in the Western Conference would result in them achieving a bye in the first round. In their first contest in the postseason, they’ll either be facing off against their Hollywood rival LA Galaxy or Minnesota United in the conference semifinals taking place on Thursday, October 24. If they do play the Galaxy, that’ll be a very fascinating matchup for LAFC, as they’ve never beaten them in the playoffs. With that being said, they’re going to have to create even more history if they hope to win the MLS Cup.

Los Angeles FC has had an incredible season in 2019, and it’s even more impressive considering this is only their second year being an MLS franchise. Out of 34 matches played this season, they’ve pulled in 21 victories, and the offense has been immaculate with an incredible 85 goals scored for the year. When the smoke had cleared, LAFC had tallied a total of 72 points, which is a blowaway from the rest of the competition — the nearest club to them was eight behind. On top of that, they would also have a sexy +48 when it came to their positive goal difference. It’s just been an amazing campaign for Los Angeles FC.

LAFC has a massively talented roster and it’s strongly considered as one of the strongest in the league led by Carlos Vela (34 goals) and Diego Rossi (16), and not just that, but they also have Bob Bradley at the helm as their head coach, someone with a load of experience coaching 15 teams since 1981. Two of the best scorers in the league surrounded by a load of talent, a massively experienced head coach, Los Angeles FC has all of the tools to win the 2019 MLS Cup.

Los Angeles FC Faces Massive Challenges in Their Way

LAFC enters the postseason as the winners of the Supporters’ Shield, and have the opportunity to add an MLS Cup to their trophy cabinet in the same campaign. With that being said, they have a lot of work ahead of them in order to accomplish that feat and no matter who they square off against in the Western Conference Semifinals, they’ll be faced with a pretty hefty challenge.

If they take on the LA Galaxy, they’ll be tasked with beating a team that they’ve never scored a win against in postseason history. If it’s Minnesota United they’re facing, it’ll be against a club they would get dropped by in Los Angeles last month, 2-0, and they would also be forced to settle for a 0-0 draw on the penultimate day of the regular season as well.

With all that being said, now you understand that Los Angeles FC advancing to the Western Conference Final is no guarantee. They should certainly come into the postseason with a load of confidence though. I mean, after all, they did finish 16 points over the second-place Seattle Sounders in the Western Conference standings. If their form tells the story, they’ll certainly be in the MLS Cup Final on November 10. But just keep that in mind for when you place your bets, both LA Galaxy and Minnesota United have the potential to upset LAFC.

You Know the Old Quote: “Expect the Unexpected”

When it comes to any league in American sports, you have the regular season and then you have the playoffs — two different styles of play, atmospheres, and emotion. With everything amplified and the best teams taking on each other, upsets are common and it creates a level of unpredictability. So, you’ve been warned: Expect the unexpected.

As far as where we stand now, you certainly have to give New York City FC the edge to be the most likely ones to upset Los Angeles FC, and it shows in the odds too with NYCFC sitting in second place behind LAFC.

And why is that? Because New York City are dominant themselves finishing first in the Eastern Conference in the regular season, as well as having the second best record in the MLS behind only Los Angeles FC. Out of 34 games, NYCFC would record 18 wins, which would tie the defending champions Atlanta United, but they actually recorded fewer losses at six compared to Atlanta’s 12, which would result in New York City FC winning the East in the regular season by eight points. They’re also in tremendous form, only suffering one loss in their 11 matches, and you know how hot teams with momentum historically do in any sport’s postseason — they win. (Just look at the damage that the Washington Nationals are causing right now in the Major League Baseball playoffs, they’ve been steaming hot, even upsetting the dominant Los Angeles Dodgers.)

Either New York City FC and Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference are going to cause problems for Los Angeles FC if they meet up in the MLS Cup Final, but they’ve got to get through the Western Conference first. Their only challenges aren’t with LA Galaxy and Minnesota United either, they’ll also have to worry about the Seattle Sounders if they cross paths. With that being said, the Sounders are a solid long shot pick at +1400.

Favorites to Win the 2019 MLS Cup Championship

Los Angeles FC | Betting Odds: +150

There’s no denying it. Los Angeles FC is such a power that they are certainly the team to beat coming into the postseason. In just their second year as a franchise, they already have the resume and all of the tools to become MLS Champions. Out of 34 games in the campaign, they would take the victory in 20 of them, and would score a massively potent 85 goals and score a +48 goal difference in the process of their winning. When the tallying was done, they would end up with 72 points on the season, eight more than the nearest team in the standings in both conferences. LAFC has been set for the playoffs for awhile now, clinching a spot back in August. Carlos Vela with his league-leading 34 goals and Diego Rossi’s additional 16 creates an extraordinary offensive attack, and it’s even more dangerous led by head coach Bob Bradley.

They certainly have all of the tools to pull off the Cup win, but the only thing that concerns me is their recent form, they haven’t been the best to close out the season winning just twice in their last eight matches. That’s what makes LAFC so vulnerable.

New York City FC | Betting Odds: +500

It’s been a season of success for New York City FC, finishing first place in the Eastern Conference and qualifying for a spot in the 2020 CONCACAF Champions League as a result — their first appearance in franchise history. It’s surely been a good season for NYCFC, but can they elevate their excellence to great? Definitely. They have home field advantage in the Eastern Conference Semifinal, and it’s even more leverage for them than usual considering City has only lost one time in the Bronx all season long, and that would happen all the way back in July against the Portland Timbers. In their first contest in the playoffs, they’ll take on either DC United or Toronto FC, and both New York City FC are licking their chops at. Out of 34 games this season, NYCFC would secure 18 victories and suffer just six losses.

Their defense isn’t the best, so it can easily be exposed allowing an average of 1.24 goals-per-game against them in 2019. However, their potent offense creates wins, and that’s all that matters: In their last 11 games, they’ve only lost once allowing 15 goals against them, and scoring 26 for themselves.

Atlanta United FC | Betting Odds: +800

In just their second season as a franchise (similar to Los Angeles FC now), Atlanta United FC would have a successful campaign that would eventually lead them to the 2018 MLS Cup championship. Some pundits would consider this title to be a fluke, but they would shut them all up with a follow-up winning year in 2019 finishing second place in the Eastern Conference. Under their head coach Frank de Boer, United has put together a pretty effective squad capable of winning a repeat title, especially considering the way that they’re built to be tough to beat. That formula has earned them yet another spot in the CONCACAF Champions League. When the playoff draw would take place, luck would be on the side of Atlanta United FC, and being in a home tie with New England Revolution would also put them in a nice spot for an Eastern Conference Semifinal, beating them at both home and on the road in the regular season.

If they beat the Revolution, and they should, they’ll be advancing to another winnable match taking on either the New York Red Bulls or Philadelphia Union. I can see Atlanta United FC getting to the Eastern Conference Final, but it’s going to be extraordinarily tough for them to get past New York City FC with the way they’ve been dominating, especially in recent form.

Seattle Sounders | Betting Odds: +1400

The Seattle Sounders would certainly put in work this season, and would earn a very-much deserved second place finish in the Western Conference — they would clinch that position in the 11th hour by two victories in their last two matches. (A 1-0 home win over Minnesota United and another 1-0 victory, this time on the road, against San Jose Earthquakes.) What makes those wins even more vital is that they would come in clutch time, ultimately giving Seattle some leverage as far as home field advantage is concerned. With them already in postseason mode playing and winning those matches, the Sounders are in excellent shape for the MLS Playoffs. Yeah, Seattle may have gotten to this point doing things the hard way, but it could possibly pay off in the postseason with the Sounders being used to the pressure, especially here in the final part of the campaign. Out of 34 games this season, Seattle would pull in 16 victories. It hasn’t been a bad year, but it has been filled with some inconsistency taking losses to Los Angeles FC, New York City FC and Salt Lake City.

The main example of their inconsistency this season was their slim goal difference of +3, and it also exposes a very vulnerable defense. The Sounders should be able to achieve a first round victory over FC Dallas, but after that, the Western Conference Semifinal looks troubling for Seattle against either the Portland Timbers or Real Salt Lake. And with their inconsistency, you can’t help but to feel that a loss is coming.

Betting Odds to Win the 2019 MLS Cup Championship

  • Los Angeles FC | +150
  • New York City FC | +500
  • Atlanta United FC | +800
  • Seattle Sounders | +1400
  • Philadelphia Union | +1400
  • Minnesota United | +1800
  • LA Galaxy | +2000
  • New York Red Bulls | +2000
  • DC United | +2500
  • Real Salt Lake | +2500
  • Toronto FC | +2500
  • New England Revolution | +3300
  • Portland Timbers | +3300
  • FC Dallas | +4000

Betting Prediction to Win the 2019 MLS Cup Championship

  • New York City FC (+500)

Betting Long Shot to Win the 2019 MLS Cup Championship

  • Minnesota United (+1800)
Andrew Powell

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