We’re only a day away from July Fourth!
And you know what that means: It’s almost time for the 103rd Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, as the Mustard Belt is at stake again in the most prestigious food eating contest held every year on America’s birthday — it’s so big, it’s even televised on ESPN. As far as the favorite is concerned, Joey “Jaws” Chestnut is the top-dog to take the title on the men’s side, and it would be his 12th time in 13 years doing so. For the women, it’s Miki Sudo, who is aiming for her sixth title in the event. With their historic domination in this contest, they’re not just on top of the odds either, their status as favorites are extraordinary hefty. It doesn’t look like we’ll have any “upset” stomachs here.
Bovada has a huge list of prop bets to place a wager on for this historic event. As far as the favorites’ odds are concerned, Chestnut’s figure sits at -1000, while Sudo is at -1600 to bring home the Mustard Belt — this compared to the rest of the field at +700.
JOEY CHESTNUT: THE RECORD-SETTING LEGEND
Eating incredible amounts of food in such a short amount of time, Joey “Jaws” Chestnut continues to impressively shock people watching him and turns the heads of others. Just last month at the 2019 World Championship Canteen Sandwich Eating Contest, he would set a new world record. In only 10 minutes, Chestnut would slam down 28.5 sandwiches, and that would be a whopping 9.5 over the second-place finisher Gideon Oji. Oji would just set the world record at last year’s Canteen Sandwich Eating Contest too, eating 18.5 sandwiches at the inaugural event.
That’s not the only world record that he would set this year though. After all, it’s a regular occurrence with ‘Jaws’. A week before the Canteen Sandwich Eating Contest, he would break another world record, this time Geoffrey Esper’s tally of 36 pepperoni rolls in 10 minutes. Chestnut would throw down 43, and would also take out second-place Esper to not only break his record, but win the title. Back on May 25, Esper would eat 37.5 pepperoni rolls in that contest, breaking his own record. Unfortunately for him, Chestnut was in that event as well this year.
Last year’s Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest would come along with some controversy, and this would happen when Chestnut was originally credited with eating 64 hot dogs. However, there was a mistake by the counter, missing a total of 10 hot dogs that ‘Jaws’ had thrown down. When the mistake was fixed up, Chestnut was then given a tally of 74 hot dogs (bun included) in 10 minutes.
As a result, the gambling community and its oddsmakers have set the OVER/UNDER for hot dogs eaten by the winner at 73.5 — which is obviously just a half-hot dog less than the total eaten last year. With Chestnut riding into this event with heavy momentum after breaking two world records this year, I fully expect him to hit the 75 hot dog mark. That would be a new world record as well, which obviously isn’t out of the question for Mr. Chesnut. Give me the OVER.
MIKI SUDO: THE MICHAEL JORDAN OF HOT DOG EATING?
Here in 2019, Miki Sudo will be going for her sixth championship to achieve Michael Jordan status in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest — and you can definitely bet on that, as the odds-makers themselves will tell you. In her career, Sudo has competed in a total of five of those contents, and she paved her way to victory every single time. In those five events, Sudo has averaged 37.7 hot dogs per year, and her career high is 41 that she accomplished back in 2017 — that was just four off of Sonya Thomas’ world record at 45, done back in 2012.
This year’s OVER/UNDER for total hot dogs eaten by the winner will be a bit tricky this year, and here’s why: The O/U is set at 40.5, and Sudo is the heavy favorite. The problem with that is Sudo has only ate over 39 hot dogs just one time in her career. With that being said, this bet could be a bit risky, but it’s understandable why the odds-makers set it at that figure, she’s been solid in the 2019 campaign. Back on June 7 in the BakeMark Donuts Contest, Sudo would take the No. 3 spot among both men and women with a total of 41.5 donuts slammed down, and if that isn’t impressive enough, it was just 4.5 less than first place Matt Stonie. She would also take the No. 5 tally in the Malted Barley Pretzels Contest among both genders — Sudo would eat 17 pretzels in eight minutes. That was nine less than Geoff Esper, who would be the victor in that contest with a total of 26 pretzels shoved down the throat.
With that being said, however, she may be a heavy favorite to win in the odds with her number sitting at -1600, but Sudo eating 41 hot dogs may be a bit of a stretch. And it’s definitely too risky to take the OVER, definitely take the UNDER on that bet.
Let’s go over the full list of official prop bets for the 103rd Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on America’s birthday. You can catch the men’s competition at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2 and the ESPN App, and you can watch the women eat up at 10:45 AM ET on ESPN3 and the ESPN App. And I just want to say as a side note: I remember watching this event as a kid every July Fourth and just enjoying the glorious holiday and the vibe of the contest. With the childhood memories I have of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, it is truly an honor to cover it here in 2019 — truly an honor. Now let’s get into the odds!
Happy Fourth of July!
Joey “Jaws” Chestnut prepares his stomach for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest by fasting, and he also stretches his stomach out with milk, water, and protein supplements. In total, that training regiment has led Chestnut to an incredible amount of 43 world records. And now you see why he’s such a heavy favorite to win this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Oh yeah, and like I’ve previously mentioned, he’s won 12 of these in the past 13 years. Yeah, go ahead and take it to the bank. Nobody is beating Jaws in this contest.
He already hit the OVER mark of 73.5 in 2018, so there’s no reason to think why he wouldn’t do it again this year. Back in 2012 after he would win the total with a total of 68 hot dogs eaten, Chestnut would make this quote: “I will not stop until I reach 70. This sport isn’t about eating. It’s about drive and dedication, and at the end of the day, hot dog eating challenges both my body and my mind.” He obviously went on to eat 70, and he’s still going strong as ever. With constant motivation to break his own records and tallies, you have to think that Chestnut will meet the OVER again. Go ahead and place that bet.
When the women’s competition began in 2011, Sonya Thomas would win every Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for a few years straight. And then Miki Sudo came on the scene. To explain her domination in food eating, it’s because she’s competing with both men and women, and doing well against both — it’s no shocker that she’s a force in this event. In 2014, she would become the top-ranked female in Major League Eating, and in both genders, she would hit a top three ranking in 2015. From 2014-2018, she has won five straight Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests, and is sure to win a sixth this year — she’s eaten a total of 185.5 hot dogs in five years. I don’t know how on earth you don’t bet on Miki Sudo to win the women’s side, she’s literally becoming the Michael Jordan of hot dog eating with her about to win her sixth championship in this event. Take Sudo.
In five tries, Miki Sudo has only hit the OVER threshold once — that was two years ago in 2017 when she ate a total of 41 hot dogs. With that being said, you have to take the UNDER here. I understand that Sudo has had an amazing 2019 campaign competing against both sexes, but come on, it’s hard for anybody to eat 41 hot dogs to break this OVER. Miki Sudo is one of the best eaters in the world, but there’s no way that I see her hitting this. Though I do see her getting close. And honestly, I wouldn’t blame you for taking a chance on the wave of momentum that she’s riding right now. She’s had a pretty impressive 2019. Still, I’m personally taking the UNDER.
Okay, first off, nobody is beating Joey Chestnut. However, that’s how Matt Stonie would come to fame, beating the legend before back in 2015. At the time, Chestnut was an eight-time champion, but wouldn’t have a dominating performance eating just 60 hot dogs compared to other performances. Stonie would take advantage and slam down 62 hot dogs to give him the victory. The next year in 2016, he would eat 53 hot dogs, and then third in 2017 with a total of 48 hot dogs. Last year, he would decline a bit more eating just 40 hot dogs compared to his other results. And honestly, I don’t expect much from Stonie in this bet. Definitely take Joey Chestnut.
Geoffrey Esper has done his thing throughout his professional competitive eating career, including notable performances such as eating 83 slices of John’s Incredible Pizza, and doing so in 10 minutes, and also eating 281 Hooters wings in that time — speaking of Hooters, he won their wing-eating title in both 2017 and this year. With him carrying a 2019 title, and also breaking two world records this year (Malted Barley Pretzels and Hooters World Wing Eating Championships), Esper has plenty of momentum riding into this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. With Stonie on the decline and Esper racking up accolades, you have to ride with the favorite Geoffrey Esper in this bet.
Having a pretty remarkable career, Carmen’s Cincotti’s first experience with the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest would be an utter failure. He would only eat 13 hot dogs in a qualifier and would fail to even make the contest. Afterwards, he would begin eating large amounts of food to prepare him for future food-eating contests. His training regimen is interesting, focusing on a particular food in his diet for up to two months straight to prepare his body for that event. He does this while working out and running for five days a week. In 2017, he ate nearly 1,000 hot dogs in preparation for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. It paid off for him too, eating 60 hot dogs in that year’s event to come in second place. But here’s the problem that I see with taking Carmen Cincotti in this bet: He retired last year. With him being out of activity for a bit and now returning to this contest, there is the potential that he could be a little rusty. As a result, I would take advantage of the +300 odds and place my wager on Geoffrey Esper over Carmen Cincotti.
PREDICTION: JOEY CHESTNUT (-10.5) -115
PREDICTION: NO (-1600)
PREDICTION: OVER 45.5 (-105)
PREDICTION: OVER 9.5 (-165)
PREDICTION: NO (-2000)
PREDICTION: NO (-370)
PREDICTION: OVER 72.5 (-155)
PREDICTION: OVER 71.5 (-230)
PREDICTION: UNDER 38.5 (-110)
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