If you go by public opinion, the victor of the Democratic presidential debate in Houston, Texas was won by Elizabeth Warren. That performance would lead her to improving in Las Vegas from +200 to +175 in the odds, and it nears her to doubling her lead over former vice president Joe Biden. Good for Warren, she’s ran a great campaign, I give her that.
But here’s the issue: When you look at the numbers, her overall support has only increased by 2.4% in the polls. On top of that, the low increase is coming against competition that’s, well, tainted. I’ll just be nice about it. Okay, who am I kidding? It’s an absolute horrific field that the Democratic Party has presented to oppose President Donald J. Trump in 2020, and even Democrats know it.
As far as Warren is concerned, you can say that she has good policies for a Democratic base and is sitting pretty to win the nomination right now, but she’s going to need to do better against her lowly competition if she expects to beat Trump — and it’ll have to be more than a 2.4% increase against other Democrats, even former vice president Joe Biden is trying to give away the nomination with the absolute dismal campaign that he’s ran. She may be doing good in the primaries right now, but that will only go so far against an incumbent president going for re-election (especially under these circumstances against Trump) — she’ll need to be great if she wants to defeat the Donald.
With that being said, Elizabeth Warren does deserve some kudos. What she’s done so far throughout the beginning phases of the campaign has been pretty solid, originally starting out in the fifth position in the odds and eventually working her way up to the lead. Solid work. Here were the opening odds back in June, according to Bovada:
Opening Odds to Win the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
As you see, it’s been pretty impressive stuff from Elizabeth Warren. And while her lead continues to grow, most candidates including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg have all seen their odds drop. You even had Andrew Yang suffer a bit of a decline after he would have momentum see him climb up the board — his constant promise of “a free $1,000/month with no strings attached” got pretty stale, that’s literally the only thing he has. And he’ll also have to explain in a general election how this isn’t going to destroy a booming economy and increase the welfare state. Well, as you see, his odds have dropped.
As far as the rest of the field is concerned, their odds have remained low and probably will always remain low. But there has been one exception with the field, and he has surprisingly shot up the oddsboard recently, and that’s Beto O’Rourke. Ever since the debate in Houston, he’s went from +6600 odds to +5000. And why? Well, I’m personally not sure, but a lot of pundits are saying it’s because of his gun control comment at the debates, which the O’Rourke campaign would turn into a pretty good commercial that can tug at the heart-strings:
I admit, it’s a pretty good campaign ad, even though I completely disagree with everything that he’s saying, but it was a good commercial. And that’s what debates are all about, they’re about soundbites. Beto O’Rourke executed that perfectly in that moment. What’s even more impressive about his rise in the odds is that he would only speak about 1,700 words during that debate, while Joe Biden would tally 3,100, Corey Booker would put up 2,800 and Elizabeth Warren would speak around 2,500. But it’s obvious that O’Rouke would say a lot more than the rest of the candidates with less words. Good showing from O’Rourke, but can he sustain it?
Overall, I’m not sure. I just don’t think he has the charisma to sustain longevity enough to compete with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Beto O’Rourke may go up every now and then, but I just don’t see him winning the nomination. As far as his particular soundbite is concerned, I think it did very well with the Democratic base, and if he continues to push that rhetoric, it will work throughout the campaign.
With that being said, if he does manage to win the nomination, that rhetoric won’t work in a general election. The American people are very sensitive when it comes to the 2nd Amendment, and with the entire population at play, the majority will have no interest in giving up any kind of gun — and they shouldn’t. That’s a very precious amendment that other countries don’t have, and it keeps us safe from both a foreign invasion, and what it was created for: To protect us from a tyrannical government. Good luck, Beto O’Rourke. It’ll work for you right now with Democrats, but the momentum will come to a halt with Americans.
Let’s go over the favorites to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, their betting odds and the latest reports that involve them in the news cycle. You can also check out my latest piece about the 2020 United States presidential general election, and who I’ve predicted will be the victor next year to be in the White House.
As I’ve already mentioned, Elizabeth Warren has been running a pretty solid campaign throughout, and the latest polls are reflecting that. In the most recent Iowa poll, Warren has shot up to a lead over former vice president Joe Biden, and a lot of this is because of her effectiveness at being able to steal voters away from Bernie Sanders — something that she’s been doing for months now, and it’s gave his campaign serious issues. Warren has been doing this with her charisma and ability to connect with people, even taking as much as 60,000 selfies with voters and it’s proven to be an effective strategy. Like I’ve said, it’s been a pretty good campaign from her, but she needs to stay away from policies such as cutting the value of retirement accounts, which was recently reported from Forbes. With the Democratic base, however, I don’t think it will be much of a problem with the way the party attacks wealth nowadays, but in a general election, she’ll have a problem with that. Still a good ways away from that though.
I’ve already gone over how disastrous of a campaign it’s been for Joe Biden in my last political piece, but of course, there’s been more happening from good ol’ Uncle Joe since then. Let’s get to the biggest news that broke just recently, and that would be this whole situation going on with him and the Clinton-linked Ukraine fiasco. The whole thing started when a whistleblower “exposed the truth” about President Trump having a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which by the way is completely legal. That would obviously be the case when all the whistleblower’s actions would do is expose Biden and his possible misconduct with Ukraine — stories that originally were from when Hillary Clinton was running for president back in 2016 and didn’t want Biden to be in the race. His misconduct is so damning that it could put an end to his campaign. In other news, Biden has lost his lead in the polls in Iowa to Elizabeth Warren and he has also received recent heat (again) about his treatment towards women after calling one of them “sweetheart”, but that’s nothing compared to this “misconduct” that can kill his campaign. Joe Biden has major problems.
They’re not as intense as Joe Biden’s, but Bernie Sanders and his campaign are facing some pretty huge problems themselves. Their biggest: Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been doing great in the primaries up until this point, even recently taking the lead in Iowa over both Joe Biden and Sanders. But why? This has been going on for awhile now, and has been in the media for months, but Sanders continues to lose voter after voter to the Warren campaign — she’s literally stealing them like children would steal cookies out of a cookie jar when their mother is in the bathroom. She’s been that effective, and it’s killing the Bernie 2020 campaign. At the same time though, it’s not all Warren stealing Sanders’ base, it’s also Bernie shooting himself in the foot. First off, why on earth are you meeting with Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi in the middle of a campaign? Second, why are you still hanging out Linda Sarsour, someone who advocates radicalism and anti-Semitism? Third, why are you missing key events such as LGBTQ forums, a base that is key to the Democratic Party? There’s a lot of self-sabotage here as well, it isn’t just Elizabeth Warren. And this is why he continues to decline — that, and he already exposed himself to be a pretty nice-sized hypocrite ever since 2016 when he would drop out of the Democratic primaries and succeed to Hillary Clinton. It’s over, Bern.
“What happened to Kamala Harris?” — CNN asked that question in a headline, and I have to ask the same one. What did happen to her? Well, she’s been campaigning, and there hasn’t been many soundbites coming from her either, other than the “I’m f*cking moving to Iowa” comment. Again though, like I’ve already mentioned with previous candidates, doing stuff of that magnitude may work with a Democratic base, but how far would it take Harris in a general election? Probably not that far with the amount of Christians and conservatives that exist in this country, but for the mean time, it’ll rock with Democrats. And for the time being, that’s exactly the kind of charisma that she’s going to need if she wants to take the nomination away from Elizabeth Warren. Right now, there’s reports about her campaigning in South Carolina and Iowa, but no major soundbites to help her with the polls. In fact, she actually lost the lead in her own home state of California to Warren. She’s disappeared, she’s lost momentum, her unfavorable ratings have grown, she’s giving the media and voters nothing to work with, her campaign has ran flat. It’s nothing that she can’t recover from, but she needs to get to work — Warren is strong.
Tulsi Gabbard hasn’t really done much in the odds, with her highest peak being at +3000 when things opened up, so as you see, she’s actually declined a little bit at +4000. Despite that, however, she’s been rising in the polls, and she’s actually shot up in a recent Iowa primaries poll. I’ve been noticing this rise with her for awhile now. She would immediately catch people’s attention with how attractive she is for a politician. Next, people would then hear her speak and see how calm and intelligent she is with her words, and then Americans would also see her attack issues and topics that other Democrats (and anybody involved in politics for that matter) don’t normally do — such as the “military industrial complex”. And it’s been extraordinarily effective for her as well being a veteran of the United States military. She’s also been effective with pulling in Republican and right-wing supporters doing this, as well as attacking her own side (the left) about shutting down free speech. She does have a few questionable policies such as universal healthcare, supporting illegal immigration and wanting to re-enter the United States into the Iran nuclear deal, but those policies are typical Democrat policies, and that’s why she’s been on the rise.in the polls and continues to rise — it’s only a matter of time before it reflects in the odds.
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