We would recently see President Donald J. Trump fire a third national security adviser, all of this in his first term, and it didn’t hurt Trump’s odds at all. In fact, they’re still massively strong at a +110 figure.
Last week, it would be John Bolton on the chopping block as the ousted national security advisor, but it isn’t just that position — the president has cleaned house in multiple spots, similar to the Reagan administration in the ’80s. And that probably explains, despite the media freakouts, why the constant moves aren’t hurting the president’s odds, because after all, none of this is unprecedented. You probably wouldn’t know that with the consistent said freakouts that we’ve seen from the mainstream media, but the odds-makers haven’t been fooled.
However, even though President Trump’s odds are still at heavy favorite status, there’s actually been a shift into plus-money, different than the EVEN and minus figures that were previously shown beside the president — this courtesy of online sportsbook Bovada.
Look at the progression of odds yourself from July up until September 11, the last date when new United States presidential election odds were released, among the different top candidates involved in the 2020 campaign:
If you didn’t notice, Elizabeth Warren has been shooting up the odds over time, and might I say, she’s deserving of the figures for the great campaign that she’s ran up until this point — and this is coming from a Republican. For example, according to a NPR/PBS/Marist poll, a total of 75% of Americans had a positive opinion about Warren. That incredible number shot up from 53% back in January.
Another person to keep an eye on is Andrew Yang and his “Yang Gang” base, with the businessman sliding up from +2500 odds to +1800. On the decline, however, have been Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, and the main purpose has been because of lacking media coverage. Other than that, they haven’t ran bad campaigns, and have had good showings in the Democratic presidential debates. Don’t count them out though, they should see an increase in the odds eventually with the momentum they’re riding — they just need to get their press up.
To provide us some fun and entertainment, the top US betting sites have also added Hillary Clinton on the list at +4000, the first time that she’s made the appearance in this futures cycle. With that being said, don’t completely laugh at this option. It would be worth placing a wager on Hillary based on her ego alone, she’s power-driven enough to pull a move like running again. You don’t have to bet too much, just a little “just in case”, you never know.
In other developments with the campaign, we would recently see the dropping out of Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Schultz, founder of Starbucks, as well as Kirsten Gillibrand.
Reportedly, President Trump has sent over 10,000 tweets ever since he’s been inaugurated as President of the United States in January 2017, which I find an absolutely hilarious number — in a good way. I can’t get enough of this president, and I personally hope for another four years, and for the comedy factor alone.
However, some of the president’s tweets have backfired, actually hurting stock markets all over the world. As a result, he’s also hurt foreign economies and has sparked fears here in America, and that’s why Trump has saw a bit of a dip in the odds. And that should remind you of the way the majority of Americans pull the lever: They vote with their wallets.
I feel like President Trump has been a great president and he’s the reason why the economy is booming in the first place, but he’s got to be very careful with economical warfare with the recession fears. It could be nothing but mainstream media smoke that we’ve seen for nearly three years now, but it’s obviously working with the people in the odds if his figures keep dropping.
We’re just 14 months away from the presidential election, which is around the corner, especially with political and media cycles. Going back to those recession fears that I’ve previously mentioned, polls have shown that the majority of Americans are believing the hype, and that’s not the best timing for Trump. Now I know how polls are, the same polls that showed that Hillary Clinton had a 96% chance to be president in 2016, so I get that the credibility is low right now, but it’s just something to think about.
With that being said, if you’re interested in placing a bet on President Trump to win his re-election campaign, here are the three segments of the economy that you need to be focused on. Remember, the economy effects his odds the most, so stay focused in this area.
If you don’t know, I’m not exactly sure where you’ve been, because it’s been all over the place now, and that’s the on-going beef between President Trump and the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell — to put it simple if you don’t know, Trump can’t stand the way Powell runs the Fed, and it’s understandable why. (We’ll get to that later.) Don’t be shocked to see Powell lose his job before 2019, with Trump putting someone who fits his ideology more into the position. And here’s why:
If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the stock market then soars. Yeah, the market may not directly correlate to the economy, but the cut rates also produce easier loans for homeowners and entrepreneurs, which then causes more money put into the economy and jobs are created, investments are put into businesses, and so on. So regardless, it’s all going back to the economy. If Powell delivers, it pumps up Trump’s economy even more, and that would put his chances of getting re-elected even higher. Again, Americans vote with their wallets. So, what’s likely to happen? Well, I have two scenarios for you:
Either way, interest rates are going to get dropped, as they should.
You’ll hear some pundits in the mainstream media say that Trump desperately needs to get a deal done with China before the 2020 election gets here, I disagree. Not only is the United States winning the trade war, but it’s absolutely destroying China’s economy and it’s left the Chinese begging to get something done — the president has said on multiple occasions that he’s not in any hurry to get a deal done. For the most part, the farmers and his base are riding with him, so there’s nothing to be worried about…right now. The continuing tariffs (taxes) could cause a negative effect with Trump, and it has a little bit in the odds — nothing too much to be disastrous, but they’ve shown a toll.
Again, Americans vote with their wallets, so he can’t let taxes get too high on products. I don’t think that will go well in a general election. (If the Democrats can get their act together, that is.) China can’t wait, Trump can, but not too long before 2020 gets here. Needless to say, it’ll be interesting to see what gets done this year, especially after the past 30 years of China dominating the United States — which is why we’re in this trade war to begin with.
Let’s go over the latest news for each of the top candidates involved in the 2020 United States presidential election, as well as the latest odds for each one.
The Trump 2020 campaign has been running smoothly ever since it got kicked off, but recently, the president has been dealing with multiple issues outside of next year’s election. You have the current situation in the Middle East with the constant growing tension with Iran, and the latest case of this has been the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil fields by the regime. Another issue has been the latest story from the New York Times about Brett Kavanaugh involving a new allegation. However, to no surprise, the NYT would then release an editor’s note to say that one alleged victim said herself that she “does not recall the incident.” Needless to say, Trump didn’t take the Times’ report so well and unleashed fury on Twitter. The president is also continuing his ongoing war against the Democratic Party, this time requesting that the House Judiciary investigate former president Barack Obama and his Netflix deal. Despite all of the non-stop action, Trump is sitting real pretty for re-election, with RealClearPolitics saying Trump will win — and ironically, the New York Times saying that the Trump family will become a dynasty in the White House. Never a dull moment with the president, that’s for sure.
Elizabeth Warren has had a magnificent campaign ever since it started, and it would recently get better with an endorsement from the Working Families Party, a vital pick up that she would earn over rival Bernie Sanders. With that being said, this is going to continue to allow Warren to pick up even more of Bernie’s base, and further up her numbers in the polls in the Democratic primaries. Other than that, there really hasn’t been much from her campaign other than successful rallies and pushing policies such as the lifetime lobbying fan on major government officials to increase her appeal even more with the ‘common folk’. There really isn’t much else, and you really couldn’t ask for much more either. She’s recovered quite well from the Native American scandal and has made nearly all of us move on from that fiasco. All is well with Elizabeth Warren with the Democratic primaries. I eventually see things going down hill if she squares off against President Trump in a general election though. She does have a lot of shady stuff in her past, and that’s not the kind of ammo that you want to give Trump in a presidential campaign — i.e. 2016.
The former vice president’s campaign has been a bit of a disaster, and it’s gotten weird a couple of times too. What do I mean? Well, you had the recent Democratic presidential debate where Biden would play around with his false teeth while speaking. There was an odd story about a gang leader named ‘Corn Pop’ that he would fight, that story turned out to be false and he got mocked for it. Speaking of stories that were made up, he would make up a war story about a trip of his to Afghanistan that even the Washington Post would prove to be false. He would claim to not be “going nuts” at a campaign stop at Darmouth University. Afterwards, on the same day, he would then confuse New Hampshire with Vermont — not a good way to get local voters. It gets even worse though: He would claim there’s “at least three” genders, while also saying “poor kids are just as bright as white kids”.
Here’s another classic quote for you: “We believe in truth over facts.” Then you had the infamous “go to Joe 30330” comment at the Democratic debate — Joe 30330 isn’t a thing. It keeps going, I know you’re probably laughing already, I know I am. He would tell a paraplegic state senator to stand up during a speaking appearance, and then you had his borderline racist statements of calling former president Barack Obama the first mainstream African American to be “articulate” and “clean”. And then you had this: “You can’t go to a 7-11 or Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have an Indian accent.” And that’s not even the most of it, the list keeps going and going and going — it’s that bad. If things continue down this path for Biden, he will lose the nomination to Elizabeth Warren. His campaign is in serious need of a clean up, and now you see why he’s been dropping in the odds, and polls for that matter.
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