The NFL regular season draws heavy betting action every week. This s only makes sense when considering that the NFL is the world’s most popular sports league by attendance.
But even the most popular sports league has trouble drumming up interest in the preseason. Starters merely use preseason games as tune-ups, while fringe players who are fighting to make the roster play just as many minutes.
Considering that second and third-stringers see so much action in these exhibitions, it’s no wonder why many bettors overlook the preseason. But you can miss out on some excellent wagering opportunities if you have this mindset.
The preseason presents different elements from regular season contests. And if you can master these nuances, then you can have a stronger chance of winning money when compared to betting on the regular season.
Of course, the first step to beating preseason lines involves learning basic strategy elements. Keep reading as I discuss 7 steps for how to bet these games.
Information is key when betting on any sport. If you can get important info before other bettors, then you can jump on a line before it draws more action and moves.
The NFL preseason especially offers good chances to get early info and use it to your advantage.
In the introduction, I discussed how many gamblers overlook the preseason due to its uncertain nature. Few people want to pour time into handicapping a game that involves so many backups playing.
But you can also use the nature of preseason football to your advantage. If you find out that a starting quarterback or star wide receiver will be playing more than usual, then you can gain an edge.
The best way to get quick information on NFL preseason games is by joining Twitter feeds of team reporters. It also helps if you narrow your focus to a few teams so that you’re not being bombarded with tweets.
Of course, anybody can follow team reporters in order to get the most recent info. This is why you need to always have your smartphone handy and react fast when getting breaking preseason news.
The NFL preseason isn’t the most-lucrative time for sportsbooks. But bookies still try to stay on top of the action by making line moves based on important news.
For example, assume that a team announces that their starting quarterback will see extended time in a preseason game. Considering that many starting QBs only play about a quarter, this is a crucial piece of info.
You may see a team’s preseason line move from -1.5 to -3.5 based on the starting quarterback playing more. It would definitely pay to jump on this line movement because you’re gaining an extra two points on the spread.
This scenario can also go the other way too if it’s revealed that a key player will either see a reduced time or entirely miss a game.
Again, you want to be on top of this news if you’re interested in betting on the Bills or their opponent.
The starting quarterback is the only QB who takes meaningful snaps during an NFL regular season game. The second-string quarterback normally only sees action in the case of an injury or a blowout victory.
Preseason games differ, though, because three or four signal callers will see the field. Therefore, you need to take each QB into account when handicapping preseason contests.
The first thing you need to look at is the depth chart, which shows the order of players at each position. The starting quarterback usually only plays about a quarter, meaning the game’s fate mainly rests in the backups’ hands.
You can find a lot of value in teams that have strong QB depth. These teams normally have good offensive production from top to bottom thanks to their multiple skilled quarterbacks.
Here are examples of NFL teams with deep QB groups heading into the 2018 season:
If you don’t know much about some of the backups, then check out training camp practice reports. These give you a good indication on how all of the quarterbacks are looking in camp.
One of the most-obvious factors when handicapping a regular season game is a coach’s record. Strangely enough, though, some bettors completely overlook this factor in the preseason.
The biggest reason why is because everybody knows that the preseason doesn’t technically matter—at least to non-bettors. Therefore, why would anybody care how a coach performs in exhibitions that don’t count towards the standings?
Of course, preseason NFL betting is a different beast, and you need to consider different factors for success. You can find value in certain teams just by looking at their coach’s preseason history.
Some coaches simply don’t emphasize winning at this juncture of the season. Buffalo Bills legend Marv Levy, who led the Bills to four straight super bowls in the 1990s, was notorious for being a bad preseason coach.
Pittsburgh Steelers head man Mike Tomlin is another who treats exhibitions lightly. His teams are 17-29 against the spread (ATS) in preseason contests, including a current ATS losing streak of seven straight games.
Others do care about how another team performs in any contest, including tune-ups for the regular season. Seattle’s Pete Carroll, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh, and Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer are some of the best preseason coaches.
Here are their career preseason ATS records:
If all else fails, you can simply bet on these coaches’ teams covering and expect a successful wager most of the time.
Having a great preseason record doesn’t always mean a lot. After all, I’ve seen plenty of teams go 4-0 or 3-1 in these games and struggle to win 3-4 contests during the regular season.
But the preseason can take on extra significance for a new coach who’s trying to establish a winning culture. The preseason represents the first time that new coaches get their teams on the field for some competitive football.
I’m not saying that a new head man will automatically boost your chances of winning a bet. However, these coaches want to make a good first impression and get their tenure off to a strong start.
Therefore, you sometimes gain additional value by betting on teams that have new guys calling the shots. Here are some coaches who are just starting out with their new teams in the 2018 NFL preseason:
Looking at unique factors that define preseason betting can definitely help you win more wagers. But it’s also important to remember the fundamentals that can help you win NFL bets at any point of the season.
Just like when handicapping a regular season game, you need to look at the roster talent. The only difference is that we must consider the roster as a whole in this case.
Who are the second and third-string pass rushers who’ll be putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the second half? How talented are the backup cornerbacks, and can they check the opposing reserve receivers?
These are the types of questions that you need to consider when looking over a preseason roster from top to bottom.
I certainly won’t say that it’s easy knowing all of the players. But taking the time to thoroughly analyze rosters can give you a leg up on other bettors.
Earlier I discussed how coaches’ career preseason ATS (or moneyline) records are important. This should actually be one of the first stats you consider when handicapping a preseason game.
Here are other common factors to consider:
Also, note that you can gain slightly more value by betting on underdogs. University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt performed a study that shows how the public likes betting on favorites more than the underdog.
Sportsbooks know this, which is why many of their lines are slightly shaded to favor the underdog. Here’s an example:
A bettor who’s struggling to choose a side in this point spread wager may simply go with the favored Chargers. Therefore, you can expect the underdog Chiefs to have a little more value than their line suggests.
One more good strategy for NFL preseason betting is creating your own system. Many successful bettors create strategies that can be used across a wide range of games.
The only catch is that you have to come up with a complex system and test it before putting the strategy into play. After all, the days of coming up with a simplified system— such as only betting on underdogs — are long gone.
Sportsbooks are good at eventually figuring out successful betting strategies and adjusting accordingly. Therefore, you need to come up with a unique system that’s under the radar and can produce consistent wins.
The problem with creating a betting system, though, is that you have no idea on whether it will actually be successful. You may even think that you have to throw a strategy into the fire and see if it works.
But the good news is that you can use back testing to put your system on trial before risking any money. Back testing is the process of using historical data to evaluate your sports betting strategy.
If you’re making point spread bets with 10% juice, then you need to win over 52.4% of your wagers to be successful. Any win rate below this means that your system is a failure and should be scrapped.
The other part of back testing and NFL preseason betting systems is that the historical data needs to match your strategy’s parameters. Using the previous example, you’d need to look for historical preseason games where the underdog lost their last contest by 7 points or more; they’re playing at home; the opponent won their last game by 7 or more; and the underdog needs to cover +4.5 or higher.
The more historical games that you test your system with, the more confidently you can determine whether your strategy is a winner or loser.
You also need to find a software program that allows you to enter your strategy’s variables and quickly figure out if it’s a long-term winner.
Of course, the NFL preseason is relatively short in comparison to the rest of the season. You may ultimately decide that it’s not worth spending too much time developing a system just for preseason football.
But if you bet on these games over time and want to take your skills to the next level, then systems are a good way to accomplish this. Furthermore, you can use a successful strategy across a broader range of preseason games and make more money.
Preseason football betting seems intimidating at first. You not only need to analyze the starters, but also the backups too.
Nevertheless, you can still be successful in preseason football betting with the right strategy. And the seven tips presented here will help you get off to a good start.
Everything begins with understanding the nuances between preseason and regular season football. You’re not merely looking at the starting quarterback — you’re also considering how the second, third and fourth QB will fare too.
Some regular season coaches don’t fare too well in the preseason. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is a perfect example, because his teams cover the spread less than 40% of the time.
Also, remember that information is key. Due to less fan interest, the preseason gives you an excellent opportunity to get info before everybody else and use it to your advantage.
One last point here is to always remember the fundamentals of good NFL betting. Some of the same stats that you use to handicap regular season games also apply to exhibitions.
If you get really into preseason betting, then you might even develop your own system. But I suggest getting 1-2 years of preseason wagering under your bet before considering this.
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