Mark Young, January 3, 2019

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Sports betting is a skill-based form of gambling that’s hard to beat as a beginner. You’ll likely make a number of mistakes when starting out with sports gambling. Some of these mistakes are much bigger than others. They can cost you quite a bit of money, especially if you repeatedly make these gaffes.

I refer to the biggest mistakes as the seven deadly sins of sports betting, because they’ll quickly bust your bankroll. You definitely want to identify these sins and avoid them so that you can last in sports betting.

Keep reading as I discuss each sin in-depth along with what you can do to counteract these problems and improve your chances of making money.

1 – Ignoring Bankroll Management

Bankroll management involves properly managing your gambling funds so that you don’t:

• Dip into personal finances and lose more than you can afford.
• Run through your bankroll too quickly.

Professionals use good bankroll management so they avoid taking on too much short-term risk. A pro knows that they can make profits over the long term, which means they must mitigate their risk until realizing these winnings.

Of course, you don’t have to be a pro to understand the importance of good bankroll management. You can use this practice to preserve your funds while learning strategy and improving. Unfortunately, the vast majority of amateur sports bettors don’t pay much credence their bankroll. They make overly large wagers that put their betting funds in jeopardy.

Here’s a common example of bad bankroll management:

• Tim starts with a $250 bankroll.
• He bets anywhere from $50 to $100 per game.
• This only gives him between 2.5 and 5 units to work with.
• Any small losing streak will put him out of the game.

Bettors like Tim often use the excuse that they have a “good feeling” about any match they bet. The reality, though, is that one can never be sure of anything in sports gambling.

It’s wise to always prepare for the worst in the short run regardless of your skills. This means taking a good look at your bankroll and deciding how much you can afford to risk on each contest. Pros with huge bankrolls often bet just 1% of their funds on a given game. This ensures that never risk too much on a single outcome.

Here’s an example of the 1% strategy:

• You have a $100,000 bankroll.
• 100,000 x 0.01 = $1,000
• You never wager more than $1,000 per contest.

You also have to consider your bankroll size in relation to a betting site’s minimum wager. You can’t risk just 1% of your bankroll if it doesn’t match the site’s minimum bet.

You may instead have to wager 3% to 5% of your funds on a given game. Here’s an example:

• You have a $150 bankroll.
• A betting site’s minimum bet is $5.
• 5 / 150 = 3.33
• You must risk at least 3.33% of your bankroll on each game.

The Kelly criterion is another popular bankroll management method. This formula helps you calculate the exact amount you should bet based on your chances of winning.

Here’s the Kelly criterion formula:

• f = The fraction (percentage) of bankroll being bet
• b = Decimal odds – 1
• p = Probability of winning
• q = Probability of losing, which is 1 – p

Keep in mind that you must use decimal odds to make this formula work. Use an odds converter to change American or fractional odds to decimal.

Below you can see an example of putting the Kelly criterion into practice:

• The New York Giants (1.9 odds) are favored over the Washington Redskins.
• The Giants have a 52.6% chance of winning (1/1.9).
• You believe that New York should be at 1.7 odds (58.8% chance of winning).
• Variables are:
• b = 1.7 – 1 (0.7)
• p = 0.59
• q = 0.41
• Formula: (0.7 x 0.59 – 0.41) / 0.7 = 0.18
• You should wager 18% of your bankroll on the Giants winning.

Obviously betting 18% of your bankroll is extremely risky. But the major benefit of the Kelly criterion lies in maximizing your profits in favorable situations.

Your handicapping knowledge is one more aspect to be concerned about. You must determine which side stands the best chance of winning in order to successfully use the Kelly criterion. Your formula variables will be off if you’re not very good at handicapping. Regardless of the potential downsides, this formula is still worth using if you want to figure out optimal bet sizes in each situation.

Overall, you should avoid risking funds that should otherwise be put towards bills and expenses. Go through your income (after taxes) and monthly expenses to decide how much you can comfortably put towards sports betting. Never fall into the trap of thinking that you can go over budget under the assumption that you’ll win back losses. Keep a strict monthly budget and don’t bet over this amount.

2 – Not Looking for Betting Sites with Low Margins

Bookmakers don’t just offer their services as a charity. They collect juice (a.k.a. vigorish or margin) on every wager as a commission for their services. The losing side pays the juice. The most-common odds on point spreads are -110, meaning you bet $11 to win $10. Some sports gamblers mistakenly assume that all bookmakers are the same in terms of juice. Therefore, they don’t spend much time researching different services to find the lowest margins.

Lower margins mean that you’re paying less juice to the sportsbook in the event of a loss. It only makes sense to choose bookmakers with the lowest margins to improve your profit potential. But how do you determine wagering margins? A sports betting margin calculator is a simple way to do so.

A quick Google search will bring up a number of these calculators. Here are examples of the calculations you’ll get when using this tool:

Bet #1

• +150
• -175
• 3.65% margin for the sportsbook

Bet #2

• -185
• +250
• 6.54% margin

Bet #3

• -110 odds for Team A’s point spread
• -110 odds for Team B’s point spread
• 4.77% margin

Sports betting margin calculators are great for finding bets with lower juice. But it’s time consuming to perform calculations on every single wager. It’s much easier to figure out which betting sites consistently offer low margins. You should therefore perform research on bookmakers with the smallest margins.

3 – Falling for the Gambler’s Fallacy

The difference between a winning and losing sports bettor isn’t as great as many people think. Oftentimes, the two sides are only separated by several percentage points in terms of win rate. Even bad sports gamblers can look forward to winning around 45% of their bets on -110 odds. This leads many gamblers to assume that they’re “due” for a win in the midst of a losing streak.

Here’s a common scenario involving those who think they’re due:

• Greg loses four bets in a row at -110 odds.
• He attributes the losses to bad luck and believes he’ll win next time.
• Greg doubles his next bet from $50 to $100 in anticipation of a win.

This scenario illustrates the gambler’s fallacy, which refers to the mistaken belief that past results can foreshadow future outcomes. Losing bettors who subscribe to the gambler’s fallacy often increase their wagers and/or risk money they can’t afford to lose. They believe that the next win is right around the corner, thus guaranteeing a win.

The important thing to realize here is that your past losses have no bearing on the next wager. You instead need to treat every bet as an independent decision. The only time when past losses factor in is if you learn something from them. Don’t think that your luck has to change just because you’re in a losing streak. Stick to proper bankroll management and concentrate on making good wagers. Avoid betting just because you think you’re due.

4 – Making Parlay Bets

A parlay allows you to combine several outcomes into a single bet. Parlay bets are exciting because they give you the chance to win more money for a smaller wager.

Here’s an example on how a parlay works:

• You choose two bets.
• Chicago Bears (-2.5) to cover against the Green Bay Packers (+2.5).
• Miami Dolphins (+8.5) to cover against the New England Patriots (-8.5).
• You need both the Bears and Dolphins to cover, or else your bet is a loss.

Big parlays offer huge prizes. Some sports bettors like to put four or more teams on their parlays to increase their potential payout. For example, you could bet $10 on a 10-team parlay and possibly win $1,588. Aside from the larger payouts, parlays are also exciting from the perspective that they let you get more action on each bet. The amount of action only increases as you continue adding teams to the parlay slip.

2 and 3-team parlays aren’t total sucker wagers, because the margins are fairly modest. But 4-team parlays are definitely bad wagers, because the bookmaker earns 30% juice or higher. It’s best to avoid parlays altogether if you’re focused on winning in the long run. You especially want to ignore any parlay that involves four or more teams.

5 – Always Fading the Public

One of the most-popular sports betting tips is to fade the public. This concept refers to betting against the majority, because the average sports bettor usually loses.

Fading the public is extremely easy. Here are the simple steps you take to bet against the majority:

• Google “public betting chart.”
• Navigate to one of the listed sites.
• Check what percentage of tickets are on each side.
• A higher percentage of people normally wager on favorites.
• Betting the underdog often puts you opposite the majority.

Wagering against the public gives you a better chance of being on the pros’ side. Therefore, it seems like you’re more likely to win with this strategy. But there’s more to successful sports betting than simply fading the public. You also have to get in at the right price when you’re opposite the majority.

Professional bettors are masters at finding the right betting odds before they wager. Even a half-point difference on a point spread can be the difference between winning and losing. A pro does not, however, simply bet just to be fade the public. Doing so without getting the right odds doesn’t offer a great chance of winning.

Here’s an example on why this is true:

• Line is:
• Detroit Pistons +5.5 (22% of tickets)
• Indiana Pacers -5.5 (78% of tickets)
• You fade the public by betting on the Pistons.
• Far more money is on the Pacers, though.
• Line moves to:
• Detroit Pistons +4.5
• Indiana Pacers -4.5

If you’re going to fade the public, then at least make sure you’re getting good odds to do so. Handicap the match shortly after a betting line is released and decide if there’s value in wagering against the majority.

6 – Chasing Losses

I’ve discussed how some gamblers believe that they’re due for wins after losing so many bets in a row. This concept can often roll into a huge sports betting sin called chasing losses. This term refers to making extra bets solely to win back previous losses. Nobody wants to walk away a loser, which provides strong temptation to win back anything you’ve lost.

Here’s an example on the problems caused by chasing losses:

• You bet $100 apiece on two NFL Sunday games.
• You lose both of these wagers and are now down $200.
• You bet $200 on the Monday Night game to win back your losses.
• You lose this wager and have now lost $400 total for the week.

You could’ve saved $200 by stopping after Sunday. Instead, you’ve lost an extra $200 by going after your first two losing bets. Chasing losses is caused by emotions, because it involves making extra wagers against your betting judgement. Combining this mentality with thinking that you’re due for win only furthers the problem.

You may even be fooled into thinking that your loss-chasing efforts are a success. Here’s a simple pattern to show how this can be true:

• You lose two bets worth $200 (net -$200).
• You lose another wager worth $200 (-$400).
• You win two bets worth $150 (-$100).
• You lose two wagers worth $100 (-$300).
• You lose two bets worth $150 (-$600).
• You win one wager worth $200 (-$400).
• You’ve lost $400 over the course of 10 bets.

Another situation that can lead to chasing losses is when you lose a close bet. Here’s an example on how this happens:

• Line is:
• Charlotte Hornets +4.5
• Atlanta Hawks -4.5
• You bet on the Hawks.
• Atlanta is winning by seven points with five seconds left.
• Charlotte makes a meaningless three at the buzzard.
• The Hawks only win by 4, causing you to lose your wager.

Betting more money isn’t a good solution to rectifying a close loss or ending a losing streak. A better idea is to concentrate on winning your next wager.

You can fall into a losing streak because you’ve lost sight of handicapping fundamentals. In this case, you need to go back to the basics and start doing things the right way again. Boredom can also cause losing and the desire to chase losses. I suggest that you spend time every week improving your sports-betting abilities, whether you’re learning a new software program or advanced handicapping techniques.

Analyzing bets after the fact is one more thing that you can do to prevent yourself from chasing and instead focus on winning. You must look at whether your losses stem from bad handicapping, getting poor odds, or just bad luck. Analyzing wagers will not only help you improve but also force you to take time and reflect. Your urge to go after losses may subside after this point.

7 – Failing to Put In Enough Effort

Sports betting isn’t just some random gambling activity like slot machines or roulette. You can actually control your destiny to some degree by analyzing matches and using handicapping. Nevertheless, some sports gamblers still don’t put in the proper effort. This leaves them with a smaller chance to win than skilled bettors.

The key thing to realize, though, is that not all handicappers are legitimate. Anybody can open one of these services and collect money in exchange for their “expert” picks. Even legitimate handicappers aren’t perfect. They may tout 70% win rates over a short time span, but the truth is that they might barely break even over time.

Whatever the case is, you need to actually put some effort into winning. Handicapping matches yourself and learning tricks of the trade will help you net a more-reliable winning percentage. Odds are that you’re won’t be great at sports betting right away. But you’ll definitely improve as you keep analyzing matches, learning new strategies, and dedicating time to the matter each week.