Blake Daniels, October 17, 2022

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The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night at the TD Garden in a showdown between Atlantic division rivals.

Philadelphia is coming off another disappointing season where they didn’t even make the Conference Finals, despite adding James Harden to their lineup. After looking sluggish last season, Harden looked fit and ready during the preseason and Philly went 4-0 SU and head to this match with plenty of confidence.

Boston won the Eastern Conference Finals last season and looked good after three games in the 2022 NBA Finals. Not only will the Celtics be returning last season’s core, but they have also added two key pieces in Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari. Gallo is still out of commission but if Brogdon just plays his usual self, the Celtics are just fine, even without head coach Ime Udoka

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers made the playoffs for the 5th consecutive year last season. But the team has not made it past the second round of the playoffs in any of those five years. This year, Philly hopes that it will be their year. With James Harden looking fit and Joel Embiid healthy, the Sixers are a handful.

Philly upgraded with P.J. Tucker and Montrezl Harrell but the key to winning it all next season will be Harden and what role he decides to play. Harden has turned from a scoring machine to a playmaker who is content with distributing for his teammates.

 But if the Sixers want to win Harden has to be the scorer once again. Embiid is also healthy but he can’t carry this team by his lonesome. Again, it has to be Harden’s offense that needs to be more offensive-minded.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics went all the way to the 2022 NBA finals last season. They held a 2-1 lead before the Golden State Warriors won the next three games. No question that the Celtic want to run it back this year knowing they got better with their offseason acquisitions. The Celtics are the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NBA title at the top NBA sportsbooks and looking at their lineup, you can’t question that.

Boston acquired Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari during the offseason, Unfortunately, Gallo won’t be here to start the season as he is dealing with an injury. Brogdon meanwhile, will give the Celtic another scorer and playmaker. The former Rookie of the Year is a legit stud and he will provide the Celtics with more firepower, playmaking, and leadership.

Jayson Tatum is coming off a phenomenal season while Jaylen Brown has plenty to prove after he was mentioned in several trade rumors. Together, the two are a prolific duo both on offense and defense. With Marcus Smart and Al Horford also returning, the Celtics are a tough out for any team in the NBA.

Who Wins?

The Sixers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the Celtics. Philadelphia is 4-6 in their last 10 games played in Boston.

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

• The Sixers are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Sixers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.
• The Sixers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games as road underdogs.
• The Sixers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played in October.

Boston Celtics SU trends:

• The Celtics are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Celtics are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played at home.
• The Celtics are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games as betting favorites.
• The Celtics are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent from the Atlantic Division.
• The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last 6 Tuesday games.

Philly is entering its third season under Doc Rivers and the team has yet to leap to become a legit title contender. The Sixers made two excellent pick-ups in P.J. Tucker and Montrezl Harrell. Joel Embiid is among the early MVP favorites and is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in scoring. However, the Sixers’ season will depend on which James Harden shows up.

Many blamed Harden’s conditioning as the main reason for the Sixers’ failure last year. However, more than being in shape, Harden needs to revert to his old scoring self. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Harden has become more of a facilitator and is even the odds-on favorite to lead the league in assists this season.

But if Harden is content with letting his teammates do the heavy lifting on offense, the Sixers won’t be successful. If Harden asserts himself on offense, the Sixers are in good shape. There’s no doubt there’s plenty of talent from top to bottom in Philly, but they need Harden to return to all-star form to be a contender.

Boston is the current odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NBA title but there are plenty of question marks surrounding the team after head coach Ime Udoka was suspended for one season. Joe Mazulla will take over as interim coach and he has been with the team since 2019 so there’s plenty of familiarity with the players.

But take away the coaching issue and you have perhaps the most talented and balanced team in the league. Except for Danilo Gallinari and Robert Williams III, the Celtics are relatively healthy. That means a problem for the Sixers’ defense. I think we’re going to have a shootout and the Celtics outgun the Sixers here.

Prediction Boston Celtics

76ers vs Celtics ATS Prediction

The Sixers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Celtics. Philadelphia is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games against Boston.

Philadelphia 76ers ATS trends:

• The 76ers are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played overall.
• The 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
• The 76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.
• The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The 76ers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Eastern Conference
• The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 Tuesday games.

Boston Celtics ATS trends:

• The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Celtics are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
• The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Having the Sixers as underdogs is always intriguing given the talent that is on their roster. Philadelphia is also a team that has plenty of upsides, especially with guys like Maxey, Thybulle, and Melton.

However, the Boston Celtics are a complete team, even without Gallinari. Boston is coming off an appearance in the NBA Finals where they were two wins away from winning the title but went on to lose the last three games to give the Warriors the chip. No question, the Celtics want to run it back knowing they have what it takes to win it all.

The main issue with Boston is how they will respond to playing without Ime Udoka. But based on what we saw in preseason play, it doesn’t look like motivation or hunger will be a factor going against the Men in Green. I think Boston wants to prove that they are the alpha dogs in the East. I’ll lay the bucket and pick the Celtics.

Prediction: Boston Celtics -2.5

76ers vs Celtics Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in two out of the last three head-to-head meetings between the Sixers and Celtics. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 games played at the TD Garden.

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

• Under is 8-3 in the 76ers’ last 11 overall.
• Under is 6-0 in the 76ers’ last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the 76ers’ last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 6-2 in the 76ers’ last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in the 76ers’ last 10 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• Over is 6-1 in the 76ers’ last 7 Tuesday games.
• Over is 10-4-1 in the 76ers’ last 15 games following an ATS loss.
• Over is 10-4 in the 76ers’ last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 overall.
• Under is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Celtics’ last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• Under is 10-5 in the Celtics’ last 15 games played in October.
• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Over is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

The under has been the play when these two teams meet in Boston. However, with the firepower on both sides, it’s hard to see this game going under.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 211.9 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 214.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. The Celtics have more firepower this season with Brogdon on board. Meanwhile, the Sixers’ offense looked potent with a fit James Harden during the preseason.

It’s the first game of the season and I don’t think teams are in the mood to play lockdown defense. Both are very talented defensive teams but at this stage of the year, they are still trying to get in midseason shape.

Prediction: Over 214.5