If you are anything like me, you may have wondered what it would have been like to witness battles between gladiators in ancient Rome. To have witnessed epic fights, first hand, in the beauty of the Colosseum would have been some sight. In fact, when I paid a visit to the spectacular Flavian Amphitheatre a couple of summers ago, I tried to imagine the incredible competition that would have occurred in the heyday of Rome’s world-famous arena.
While modern life bears little resemblance to those days, it is probably a good thing. We have all heard the myths and legends of gladiators fighting to the death, taking on exotic animals like lions and exchanging blows with all kinds of devastating weaponry. Regardless, humans still have a desire to watch warriors do their thing, even if we have a more refined and modernized way of getting our fix.
These days, the closest thing we have to those ancient battles between the strongest, toughest, and most skillful fighters in the world is mixed martial arts (MMA). The absolute pinnacle of the sport is, of course, the world’s most foremost MMA promotion, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). Some of the most recognizable sports stars in the world, like Conor McGregor and Ronda Rousey, have lit up the UFC in recent years.
Almost every weekend, fans have the opportunity to witness the most riveting battles in combat sports. Of course, this opens up a multitude of betting opportunities that can help to enhance what is already pure, unadulterated fun.
In this compact guide, I will walk you through everything you need to know about betting on the UFC, from the best bets to an MMA betting strategy.
As with almost every sport, there are multiple bets you can place on UFC bouts. As this is a combat sport competed between two individuals, the majority of markets are geared towards who the winner of a contest will be, or if the fight will result in a draw. When it comes to choosing a winner, there are three main ways that a fight can end in the UFC.
These are (by):
Decision – The fight goes the full three or five rounds (in the case of a championship or headline fight), and the judges are tasked with deciding on the outcome of the fight. This can be a win for the red corner, a win for the blue corner, or a draw.
Knockout/TKO – If one fighter lands a legal strike that renders the opponent incapable of continuing (for example, unconscious) the fight will be ended as a knockout. However, a technical knockout (TKO) occurs when the referee believes a fighter cannot protect themselves following a barrage of shots or continued attack without response.
Submission – Should a fighter incapacitate another by way of choke, hold, or lock – and that fighter is put to sleep or taps out – the fight will end by decision.
As you can see, there are three ways a fight can end between two fighters. However, there are a number of different decisions that can be made on a fight. For example, a judges’ decision in favor of any fighter can be:
Unanimous Decision – When all three judges score the bout in favor of one fighter.
Majority Decision – When two judges score the bout in favor of one fighter.
Split Decision – When two judges score the bout in favor of one fighter, with the third judge deeming the other fighter to have won.
Unanimous Draw – All three judges score the fight as a draw.
Majority Draw – Two judges score the fight as a draw, while the third judge scores it in favor of either fighter.
Split Draw – One judge scores the fight in favor of the blue corner, one scores the fight in favor of the red corner, and the third judge scores the fight as a draw.
It is important to understand how a fight can end, as the success of your bets depends on making the right decision. For example, if you opt for Fighter A to knockout Fighter B, and that fight results in a draw, you lose your stake.
Particular UFC bouts tend to attract a lot of bets. The sport, just like boxing, is made for betting on. The buzz of the big fight can be greatly enhanced by backing your favorite fighter, especially if your fighter goes on to win convincingly. Not every bet available is on the outcome of a fight, or who wins, however. There is certainly more to betting on the UFC than taking the moneyline.
Depending on how you like to bet, you may be satisfied with simply choosing a fighter to win. However, there is definitely more money to be made in being a little more specific, such as how the fight will end or in what round the fight will come to a stop. If the aim is to increase the odds in your favor, then there are definitely ways you can do this, as you will find out a little later on.
Of course, there is no obligation to bet on every single UFC market that you come across. There is absolutely no shame in simply putting your money on the “fight winner” markets or simple moneyline bets. In fact, you might find that these work out more profitable for you in the long run, depending on your bankroll and longevity.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the most popular bet placed on the UFC, the moneyline. I will break this one down in a little more detail as it is the best bet to place as a beginner.
The moneyline is the bread and butter of UFC bets. Quite simply, you select the fighter you believe has the best chance of winning, place your wager, and you’re done. If a straightforward style of betting is your thing, then you will certainly appreciate the simplicity of this bet. While there is a lot of information that can be mined prior to placing this bet, it is as simple as they come.
Let’s imagine Conor McGregor is fighting Tony Ferguson. You believe that McGregor has a big performance in him following his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov, so you place a bet on “The Notorious” overcoming the difficult challenge of “El Cucuy.” Providing McGregor has his arms raised at the end of the bout – regardless of the method of victory – you win your bet. Easy peasy.
If fighter A is fighting fighter B and you bet that fighter A will win, all fighter A has to do is defeat fighter B and you win your bet! It does not matter how they win, what round they win in, or anything else. The only thing that matters is the fighter you bet on walks away with the victory.
In staying with this example, McGregor and Ferguson are fairly evenly matched. While die-hard fans might believe that Ferguson is the stronger fighter, McGregor is considered by others to be better. The bookmakers will take this into the equation when producing odds for the fight, but as McGregor’s popularity will likely see a lot of money placed on him, bookmakers’ exposure means that odds will be shortened on the Irishman as a result.
If there is a lot of betting activity on McGregor, Ferguson’s odds might improve in order to encourage more bets on the American. When it comes down to it, however, there won’t be a considerable difference in odds. This means that taking the moneyline on either fighter will not earn you a lot of money on a moderate stake. If McGregor is the favorite, he will pay out less than his opponent, however.
Bookmakers will do their best to offset their exposure if he wins, as previously mentioned. If things do go the other way, and there is a lot of heavy betting activity on Ferguson, the bookmakers will raise their odds on McGregor slightly until there is relative parity in the odds of both fighters. What you need to consider when placing your bets is the value in selecting either man.
For example, McGregor has lost two of his last four fights in the UFC. As he is the absolute star of the show, however, a lot of betting activity tends to flow his way. Ferguson, on the other hand, has not lost a fight in over six years and has beaten almost everyone of note in the lightweight division in that time. On paper, McGregor’s name and fame seem to be the reason why he is the bookmakers’ favorite.
Let’s say McGregor’s odds to win are -180 and Ferguson’s odds are +200. Now, if you place a $100 bet on McGregor to win, you will make a profit of $55.56. However, if you bet $100 on Ferguson, you will make $200 in profit. As Ferguson is an underdog in terms of bookmakers’ odds, he is certainly no underdog inside the cage. If both men are evenly matched, Ferguson offers more value in this particular bout.
With moneyline bets, you should always look for the value. I personally perceive McGregor’s odds to be far too short in this scenario, with Ferguson’s well over what they should be, in comparison. I would be tempted to choose Ferguson as the winner of this bout based on this, and especially since I have done my homework on his career and I believe him to be the better fighter (I will talk more about betting strategy, below).
As I discussed earlier, there are a number of different ways that a UFC fight can pan out. As such, one of the more exciting bets you can place on a bout is on the method of victory. Will the fight end in a knockout, a submission, or will it go to the judges’ scorecards? You get to decide (and to put your money where your mouth is).
Bookmakers’ odds will naturally be shorter on the circumstances that are more likely to happen. Put simply, if there are two huge heavyweight knockout artists with little to no ground game squaring off, it is unlikely that the fight will go to the judges or end in a submission. Therefore, the most popular bet in this category will be a KO/TKO. It makes sense, right? Of course, there is no guarantee that the fight will end this way.
Conversely, a fight between two top-class wrestlers/submission artists with little power or outstanding striking capabilities is unlikely to end in a KO/TKO. Bookmakers will understand this, offering short odds on a submission and fairly tight odds on a decision. It should not be difficult to comprehend how this works, as it is essentially a case of the odds being shortened in accordance with the most likely way the fight will end.
For example, let’s take a look at a fantasy matchup between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Georges St-Pierre. Both fighters are capable of ending the bout by stoppage, but the chances are that their impressive, individual capabilities on the floor will lead to the end of the bout. As such, it would make a lot of sense to avoid betting on a knockout as the method of victory.
The smart bet in this regard would be to do your homework on both fighters. Who has the stronger ground game? Who has the better submission game, and who has the better submission defense? Could both fighters not only share a similar style but are they also fairly matched? In this case, a bet on a decision could make the most sense, providing neither is coming back from injury or suffering from ring (cage) rust.
The final bet I will cover is one that can potentially pay very handsomely, if you can predict the round in which the fight will end for the fighter you are backing to win. Let’s say you want to bet on Rafael dos Anjos to beat Kamaru Usman in their upcoming five-round bout. You believe that dos Anos will have too much for Usman on the feet, and anticipate a second-round knockout for the Brazilian.
Having made up your mind about the decisive round, you place a $100 bet on the former UFC lightweight champion to put the Nigerian away. The odds on this particular result happening come in at a handsome +1400, meaning that you make a $1400 profit in the process. Simply selecting dos Anjos to win at +187 would have earned you $187 for the same stake. As you can see, these odds are more than appealing.
There are a couple of reasons why round betting odds are so high. The main reason is that there are 10 different ways this bet can be settled. There are two fighters and five rounds, so effectively you are betting not just on the fighter to win, but the round that they will do the business in, too. The worst thing about this bet is seeing the other fighter win in the round you have chosen. Yeah, that sucks.
If you are not exactly confident in choosing the exact round in which the fight will end, you have other options.
This bet is a pretty nice one to have at your disposal, too. The Total Rounds Bet is essentially an over/under style wager that gives you a chance to bet if the fight will exceed a certain number of rounds. In a 5 round fight, you can choose if the fight will end under 4.5 rounds or over 4.5 rounds (including a decision). In three round fights, the over/under is usually 2.5 rounds.
The way this bet works is that, regardless of the manner of victory, the fight must end under 4:30 seconds or over 4:30 seconds (depending on your bet) for you to win. If you have not come across this type of bet before, you might be wondering why the rounds aren’t set halfway through the fight. The reason why is that it is essentially a bet on the fight going to the judge’s scorecards (or ending earlier than 30 seconds before that).
Just to make this clear: you will win an “over” bet if the fight ends in the last 30 seconds. The fight does not have to go the distance in order for you to win your bet. Now, I understand that this bet is not the most exciting out there, but it is one that can certainly prove profitable if you know your MMA.
If you are not exactly the font of all knowledge when it comes to the UFC, allow me to introduce a little betting strategy to help you when betting on the fights.
Yes, a betting strategy can be your best friend when wagering on UFC bouts. In fact, this betting strategy can be applied to pretty much any MMA fight in other promotions, providing the standard rules and regulations apply. While this compact guide is geared towards UFC fights, it is essentially an MMA guide and not restricted to the world’s foremost promotion by any means.
Over the years, we have seen some incredible moments in the UFC. Champions have been toppled, we have been treated to some incredible shocks, and have also witnessed long periods of dominance for some incredible champions. The one trend that continues in the sport, however, is that nothing is guaranteed. This makes for an incredibly exciting sport to bet on.
When betting any sport, the more you know about how things work in that sport can help you make the most sensible choices. To the untrained eye, a UFC bout involves two fighters beating the brakes off each other until one passes out or is choked out. This could not be further from the truth. Mixed martial arts is a very comprehensive sport, with a lot going on.
When betting on UFC fights, it is crucial to understand the difference between what you should pay attention to and what you should ignore. The more you watch the sport, the easier these two factors will be to separate.
There is a multitude of fine points and minor details that can contribute to each and every fight. Below, you will find a handful of important factors to consider before you decide on what bets to place.
It is important to think long and hard about both fighters in the cage. Styles make fights, but certain fighters can be broken by particular styles. The most obvious example of a fighter having an Achilles heel is the promotion’s biggest star, Conor McGregor. The Irishman is an incredible striker and possesses a wealth of skills on the feet. However, he does tend to struggle against those with strong wrestling bases and ground games.
Both of McGregor’s losses came to fighters who are adept on the ground. The first evidence of this came against the proficient wrestler, Chad Mendes, who took the Dubliner down with ease in their interim-featherweight championship bout at UFC 189. McGregor was fortunate that his opponent – who had a two-week training camp before the bout – ran out of gas in the bout, which helped McGregor gain the upper hand.
“The Notorious” lost to Nate Diaz at UFC 196, falling victim to a rear-naked choke following a half-hearted takedown. Diaz is a Cesar Gracie BJJ black belt and is renowned for his strong submission game. McGregor, however, couldn’t deal with the Stockton native’s proficiency on the floor. Of course, McGregor’s second loss was at the hands of master-grappler, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Prior to betting on any fight, ask yourself if there is a glaring weakness in a fighter that their opponent could expose. From a poor ground game, to a glass chin, sometimes a matchup is all wrong for a fighter. Capitalize on this.
A successful training camp is crucial to a fighter’s chances in MMA. Providing the fighter has come through injury free, and has focused hard on their gameplan, they will turn up on fight night in the right shape and ready for battle.
However, it is not rare for a fighter to pick up knocks in training and ahead of a bout. If you catch wind of any fighter suffering in camp – for example, getting knocked out by a training partner or aggravating an old injury – take this into consideration. While many top-level competitors will avoid fighting at little less than 100%, up and comers who do not want to miss their opportunities will be more inclined to push through.
One of the biggest factors that can determine a fighter’s performance is how successful they have been at cutting weights. There are several examples of fighters suffering brutal weight cuts and performing poorly come fight night. Pay attention to how well a fighter is doing as the fight approaches, and always ensure you watch the weigh-ins ahead of a bout for clues about their shape on the night.
You could arguably connect the dots between a fighter’s performance, their shape heading into a fight, weight cuts, and their psychological state ahead of the battle. In combat sports, the psychological factor is crucial. A fighter with unshakeable confidence can take over the world, while a fighter who is unequipped at dealing with trash talkers and braggadocious performers can see their performance suffer on the night.
When it comes to a fight, the build-up matters. If one fighter is adept at getting inside the head of another opponent, they can cause that fighter to get angry and lose track of their gameplan. The most infamous case of successful psychological warfare occurred in Conor McGregor’s 13-second knockout over Jose Aldo at UFC 194 in 2015. Aldo was verbally bashed and wound up by the challenger, and lost his first fight in ten years on the night.
The psychological battle in the UFC is so important that it has spawned a litter of trash talkers aiming to repeat the exploits of McGregor. Some fighters cannot deal with the pressure of the big occasion or fighting in a foreign country. Others seem to handle pressure like a duck to water. Look for any signs of psychological weakness at press conferences ahead of the bout.
Unbeknown to many fans, there are two cages that are used in the UFC. There is a smaller cage (518 square feet) for smaller fights and a larger (746 square feet) cage for big events. The size of the cage can have a big effect on the performances of fighters on the night. A smaller cage leaves less room for elusive, defensive fighters, leading to more stoppages and fights that might be ended a lot quicker.
In a larger cage, there is a lot more room. This can aid those fighters who like to use their footwork and set up attacks from the outside will feel a lot more comfortable in the larger cage. In a smaller cage, you can expect more significant strikes and potentially more stoppages in the bouts on the night.
This is a contentious point among fans, but one that certainly has a lot of substance to it. As of November 2018, almost every single champion on the men’s roster is a wrestler or has a strong wrestling background.
If we take a look at the names on the list below, everyone aside from Max Holloway is known for having a strong wrestling game:
Given that the promotion seems to be dominated by wrestlers, this presents some interesting food for thought when placing bets. Striking experts do not seem to be having the same effect as they did even a few years ago. Keep this in mind when you are deciding whether to go with the striker or the wrestler on the night.
When it comes down to it, you want the best chance of winning your bets as possible. The only way to achieve this is to understand the various factors that contribute towards the performances of both fighters on the night. As you begin your journey through the halls of UFC betting, you will probably find yourself watching more fights and analyzing the small details in order to help yourself win more money. Doing so will certainly help.
By adopting a UFC betting strategy, you are essentially preparing your bets in the smartest way possible. Betting smart will unquestionably help you become more adept at choosing the right bets and will hopefully win you some nice cash in the process!
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